Economic Reports 04/17/07
Summary: Media slaps heavy lipstick on Core CPI Pig, CPI still showing stagflation on a 12% annual rampage...
Housing starts & permits showing a small rise on bad weather postponed starts & already exercised land options...
Industrial production & capacity utilization both falling, intermediate goods showing the pipeline is drying up...
CPI Mar +0.6% vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: ex food, ex energy Core CPI Mar +0.1% vs prior +0.2%. Last month energy +5.9%; gasoline +10.6%; transportation +2.9%.
For Q107 Annualized: Energy +22.9%; Food +7.3%; Transportation +8.3%; Food & Beverages +7.4%.
If you don't eat and don't go anywhere, life is good. If your like the rest of us, stagflation is still eating your money at a 12% annual clip.
Housing Starts Mar +0.8% at 1.518M vs prior 1.506M Full Report
Inside the number: as March rings in spring, SFR starts +2%. The increase on already permitted bad weather postponed starts. Here's the carnage....
Under Construction -1.1%; SFR's -1.7%; Yoy -15.8%; YTD -22.7%
Completed -0.7%; SFR's +1.5%; Yoy -25.9%; YTD -28.9%
Housing Starts Yoy -23%; YTD -29.8%; SFR starts Yoy -24.6%; YTD -31.7%
Building Permits Mar +0.8% at 1.544M vs prior 1532M; SFR's +1.4%.
Yoy -25.9%; YTD - 27.3%; SFR's Yoy -28.4%; YTD -30.6%.
The increase in new permits due to the developers holding already exercised land options.
They are eating the land costs and must build out to get out (AKA swallow the sword).
Industrial Production Mar -0.2% vs prior +1.0% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Mar decreasing to 81.4% vs prior 81.6%.
A 7% decline in utilities output due to warmer weather drove the number down. Dec, Jan, Feb numbers revised down 0.4%.
The bright side?? Yoy Production +2.3%; factory output +0.7%; output of business equipment +0.8%; ex motor vehicles manufacturing output +0.7%.
These increases were attributed to durable goods, computers and home electronics.
All the things that keep going down in price and the Chinese can produce more of, at a substantial LOSS.
Bad news: construction goods Yoy -2.1%; Production of crude goods a weak +0.1%; nothing coming in..
finished goods +0.4%, whats left as WIP going out... primary and semi finished goods -0.9%... the pipeline is drying up.
Housing starts & permits showing a small rise on bad weather postponed starts & already exercised land options...
Industrial production & capacity utilization both falling, intermediate goods showing the pipeline is drying up...
CPI Mar +0.6% vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: ex food, ex energy Core CPI Mar +0.1% vs prior +0.2%. Last month energy +5.9%; gasoline +10.6%; transportation +2.9%.
For Q107 Annualized: Energy +22.9%; Food +7.3%; Transportation +8.3%; Food & Beverages +7.4%.
If you don't eat and don't go anywhere, life is good. If your like the rest of us, stagflation is still eating your money at a 12% annual clip.
Housing Starts Mar +0.8% at 1.518M vs prior 1.506M Full Report
Inside the number: as March rings in spring, SFR starts +2%. The increase on already permitted bad weather postponed starts. Here's the carnage....
Under Construction -1.1%; SFR's -1.7%; Yoy -15.8%; YTD -22.7%
Completed -0.7%; SFR's +1.5%; Yoy -25.9%; YTD -28.9%
Housing Starts Yoy -23%; YTD -29.8%; SFR starts Yoy -24.6%; YTD -31.7%
Building Permits Mar +0.8% at 1.544M vs prior 1532M; SFR's +1.4%.
Yoy -25.9%; YTD - 27.3%; SFR's Yoy -28.4%; YTD -30.6%.
The increase in new permits due to the developers holding already exercised land options.
They are eating the land costs and must build out to get out (AKA swallow the sword).
Industrial Production Mar -0.2% vs prior +1.0% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Mar decreasing to 81.4% vs prior 81.6%.
A 7% decline in utilities output due to warmer weather drove the number down. Dec, Jan, Feb numbers revised down 0.4%.
The bright side?? Yoy Production +2.3%; factory output +0.7%; output of business equipment +0.8%; ex motor vehicles manufacturing output +0.7%.
These increases were attributed to durable goods, computers and home electronics.
All the things that keep going down in price and the Chinese can produce more of, at a substantial LOSS.
Bad news: construction goods Yoy -2.1%; Production of crude goods a weak +0.1%; nothing coming in..
finished goods +0.4%, whats left as WIP going out... primary and semi finished goods -0.9%... the pipeline is drying up.
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