Economic Reports 04/25/07
Summary: Durable orders increasing on Boeings book...under the sheets...
is that light at the end of the tunnel? or a head on collision waiting for cap-ex and the economy?
New Home Sales giving a small head fake on good weather... under the sheets...
its a dark cloud that has become a storm, and there's a twister waiting that could blow this economic house of cards down.
Later today: 2 year note auction, Fed's Beige Book
Durable Orders Mar +3.4% vs prior +2.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Good news... Feb revised up to 2.4% vs 1.7%. Bad news... Boeing was responsible for the increase in Feb and Mar on +37.6% civilian aircraft orders.
Ex transportation durable goods orders +1.5%. Inventories rising for the 13th month +0.3% and YTD +8.2%.
Wait till the war budget cuts take effect... YTD Defense aircraft & parts -28.1%; Defense capital goods orders Mar vs Feb -22.4%; Yoy -32.2%.
Good news? Core capital equipment orders +4.7%; Bad news: Q1 Annualized -15.2%; However, YTD shipments only -0.6%; orders -0.6%.
YTD durable goods... shipments -0.8%; orders -0.3%. YTD Automotive shipments -6.3%; orders -6.9%.
Analysts please keep giving upgrades & Oh ebullient investor... please keep buying those Semis so I can make a killing on Puts...
Dec semiconductor shipments +65.6% (as we mentioned at the time, year end channel stuffing to cook the books); since Jan -26.8%; Feb -10.4%.
YTD: computers & related products shipments -5.2%; orders -3.7%. Communications equipment orders -4.9%; Semiconductor shipments -6.7%.
Lights out tonight, trouble in the heartland. Got a head-on collision, smashin' in my guts, man. I'm caught in a cross fire, that I don't understand... Badlands.
"The market got it wrong", Charles Dumas, an economist for Lombard Street Research.
"The durable goods orders data confirm that (cap-ex) business capital expenditures is front running a U.S. hard landing."
New Home Sales Mar +2.6% to 858K vs prior 836K Full Report
Inside the number: Sales Yoy -23.5%, Feb revised down to 836K vs 848K the lowest since Sept 1999.
Bad news: the increase was on improved weather in 2 regions... NE sales +50%, MW +9.8%, W -0.9%, S -2.7%. Median months for sale rising to 5.6 months.
Really Bad News: Unadjusted Sales YTD -23%; NE -8.3%; MW -22.4%; S -21%; W -30.1%. Inventory +1K to 545K a 7.8-month supply.
Deceiving... Median sales price +6.4% Yoy, as the number of low & mid level buyers has decreased, leaving high end luxury homes to take a disproportionate dollar market share to pump up the number.
Good news? Yoy inventory -1.4%, the biggest Yoy decline ever recorded. Not really... Building starts & permits @ -33% are beginning to outstrip -23% sales, that means layoffs.
The economic impact of 600K less new homes being build in 2007 is just beginning to be felt. The Nattering One muses...
How do you factor in the economic impact of all the illegals & undocumented workers that are becoming unemployed in construction & housing? And the resulting layoffs of INU's in the service sector?
Fridays advance read on Q1 GDP should check in around 1.7, Q2 & Q3 could be even uglier.
There's a dark cloud rising from the desert floor, I packed my bags and I'm heading straight into the storm. Gonna be a twister to blow everything down. That ain't got the faith to stand its ground... The Promised Land.
is that light at the end of the tunnel? or a head on collision waiting for cap-ex and the economy?
New Home Sales giving a small head fake on good weather... under the sheets...
its a dark cloud that has become a storm, and there's a twister waiting that could blow this economic house of cards down.
Later today: 2 year note auction, Fed's Beige Book
Durable Orders Mar +3.4% vs prior +2.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Good news... Feb revised up to 2.4% vs 1.7%. Bad news... Boeing was responsible for the increase in Feb and Mar on +37.6% civilian aircraft orders.
Ex transportation durable goods orders +1.5%. Inventories rising for the 13th month +0.3% and YTD +8.2%.
Wait till the war budget cuts take effect... YTD Defense aircraft & parts -28.1%; Defense capital goods orders Mar vs Feb -22.4%; Yoy -32.2%.
Good news? Core capital equipment orders +4.7%; Bad news: Q1 Annualized -15.2%; However, YTD shipments only -0.6%; orders -0.6%.
YTD durable goods... shipments -0.8%; orders -0.3%. YTD Automotive shipments -6.3%; orders -6.9%.
Analysts please keep giving upgrades & Oh ebullient investor... please keep buying those Semis so I can make a killing on Puts...
Dec semiconductor shipments +65.6% (as we mentioned at the time, year end channel stuffing to cook the books); since Jan -26.8%; Feb -10.4%.
YTD: computers & related products shipments -5.2%; orders -3.7%. Communications equipment orders -4.9%; Semiconductor shipments -6.7%.
Lights out tonight, trouble in the heartland. Got a head-on collision, smashin' in my guts, man. I'm caught in a cross fire, that I don't understand... Badlands.
"The market got it wrong", Charles Dumas, an economist for Lombard Street Research.
"The durable goods orders data confirm that (cap-ex) business capital expenditures is front running a U.S. hard landing."
New Home Sales Mar +2.6% to 858K vs prior 836K Full Report
Inside the number: Sales Yoy -23.5%, Feb revised down to 836K vs 848K the lowest since Sept 1999.
Bad news: the increase was on improved weather in 2 regions... NE sales +50%, MW +9.8%, W -0.9%, S -2.7%. Median months for sale rising to 5.6 months.
Really Bad News: Unadjusted Sales YTD -23%; NE -8.3%; MW -22.4%; S -21%; W -30.1%. Inventory +1K to 545K a 7.8-month supply.
Deceiving... Median sales price +6.4% Yoy, as the number of low & mid level buyers has decreased, leaving high end luxury homes to take a disproportionate dollar market share to pump up the number.
Good news? Yoy inventory -1.4%, the biggest Yoy decline ever recorded. Not really... Building starts & permits @ -33% are beginning to outstrip -23% sales, that means layoffs.
The economic impact of 600K less new homes being build in 2007 is just beginning to be felt. The Nattering One muses...
How do you factor in the economic impact of all the illegals & undocumented workers that are becoming unemployed in construction & housing? And the resulting layoffs of INU's in the service sector?
Fridays advance read on Q1 GDP should check in around 1.7, Q2 & Q3 could be even uglier.
There's a dark cloud rising from the desert floor, I packed my bags and I'm heading straight into the storm. Gonna be a twister to blow everything down. That ain't got the faith to stand its ground... The Promised Land.
Comments