Market Soapbox 05/17/07

THU, sideways & down, DJIA -11 on below average volume with midlin internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, XOI, MID.

Bonds down 10 yr yield +4 bps 4.75, $ up vs 121.345y & vs 1.3494E, gold down $657.2, WTI crude up 4% $65.09

Over the last two weeks, some magic numbers with strong resistance... RUT 830, SOXX 500-505, SP500 1510, NDX 1905. They still stand...

Today, a 4% spike in crude had XOM holding the SP500 up around 1515. DJIA passing 13.5K intraday, up 29 for 35; 44 record closes since Oct.; 22 YTD; and on a parallel with 1989 Nikkei 225: the DJIA is now 36 for 47.

Yesterday, "this market has no breadth, wobbly legs and yet keeps driving up on what appears to be a blowoff run... the question is when?"

REIT's and divident paying stocks got slapped today. Short covering's effect has not been as pronounced this month and most indices gains are on large cap weighted stocks.

Influential market indices NDX, RUT, DJTA & SOXX getting the slapdown of late. Our SP500 1520-1530 target may or may not hit tomorrow.

We sense another day like Wen coming to push SP500 past 1527.4 all time high, but how much gas is left in the tank and what will happen then?

Depending on which index, we have been skidding along the top for 16 - 22 trading days.

This can be read two ways: a complex topping process or a lengthy sideways consolidation for the next run up.

Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!

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