Market Soapbox Week Ending 05/18/07
MON, split tape, DJIA +21 on low volume with poor internals. All DOWN cept DJUA, XOI. Bonds down, 10 yr yield +2 bps 4.69, $ down vs 1.3544E & up vs 120.355Y, WTI crude up $62.46, gold down $670.1
TUE, split tape, DJIA +37 on average volume with poor internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, DJUA, XMI, XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +2 bps 4.71, $ down vs 120.24Y & vs 1.3594E, WTI crude up 1.1% $63.17, gold up $674.5.
WEN, broadbased rebound, DJIA +104 on average volume with nice internals. All UP cept SOXX, XAU. Bonds flat 10yr yield +0bps 4.71, $ up vs 120.778y & vs 1.3516E, WTI crude down 1% $62.55, gold down 2% $661.5
THU, sideways & down, DJIA -11 on below average volume with midlin internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, XOI, MID. Bonds down 10 yr yield +4 bps 4.75, $ up vs 121.345y & vs 1.3494E, gold down $657.2, WTI crude up 4% $65.09
FRI, triple digit reflex bounce DJIA +80 on average volume with pretty internals. All UP cept DJTA & SOXX. Bonds down 10 yr yield +5 bps 4.80, $ down vs 121.12y & down vs 1.3508E, gold up $662, WTI crude up $64.94
This week, DJIA +231, since 09/19/05 DJIA +2922. CRB commodities up from 311.13 to 313.17.
XAU down 139.76 to 136.75 & gold down from $672.3 to $662. XOI up 1296.86 to 1348.94 & WTI crude up to $64.94 from $62.51.
Volatility VIX down 12.95 to 12.76. Dollar index up 81.72 to 82.17. $ up vs falling Yen 120.185 to 121.12 & up vs Euro 1.3524 to 1.3508.
This week bonds down 30 year bond falling from 111.14 to 109.30, yield curve rising & flattening 30 yr +11bps; 10 yr +13bps, 6 mo +6bps. 30 yr @ 4.96%; 10 yr @ 4.80; 5 yr @ 4.73; 2yr @ 4.82; 6 mo @ 4.96.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - ?2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - ?
Resistance: DJIA 13620; SP500 1527; NAZ 2555; NDX 1905
Support: DJIA 13310; SP500 1500; NAZ 2520; NDX 1865
Over the last two weeks, some magic numbers with strong resistance... RUT 830, SOXX 500-505, NDX 1905. They still stand...
DJIA passing 13.5K closing, up 30 for 36; 45 record closes since Oct.; 23 YTD; and on a parallel with 1989 Nikkei 225: the DJIA is now 37 for 48.
SP500 hit 1522.75. We sense another up day to push past 1527.4 all time high, but how much gas is left in the tank and what will happen then?
Yesterday: "a complex topping process or a lengthy sideways consolidation for the next run up."
Watch out for the Chinese RMB revaluation and rate hike vis a vis being a proxy for a rising Yen.
A rising yen will give a haircut to carry trade margins and may cause an unwind. Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
TUE, split tape, DJIA +37 on average volume with poor internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, DJUA, XMI, XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +2 bps 4.71, $ down vs 120.24Y & vs 1.3594E, WTI crude up 1.1% $63.17, gold up $674.5.
WEN, broadbased rebound, DJIA +104 on average volume with nice internals. All UP cept SOXX, XAU. Bonds flat 10yr yield +0bps 4.71, $ up vs 120.778y & vs 1.3516E, WTI crude down 1% $62.55, gold down 2% $661.5
THU, sideways & down, DJIA -11 on below average volume with midlin internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, XOI, MID. Bonds down 10 yr yield +4 bps 4.75, $ up vs 121.345y & vs 1.3494E, gold down $657.2, WTI crude up 4% $65.09
FRI, triple digit reflex bounce DJIA +80 on average volume with pretty internals. All UP cept DJTA & SOXX. Bonds down 10 yr yield +5 bps 4.80, $ down vs 121.12y & down vs 1.3508E, gold up $662, WTI crude up $64.94
This week, DJIA +231, since 09/19/05 DJIA +2922. CRB commodities up from 311.13 to 313.17.
XAU down 139.76 to 136.75 & gold down from $672.3 to $662. XOI up 1296.86 to 1348.94 & WTI crude up to $64.94 from $62.51.
Volatility VIX down 12.95 to 12.76. Dollar index up 81.72 to 82.17. $ up vs falling Yen 120.185 to 121.12 & up vs Euro 1.3524 to 1.3508.
This week bonds down 30 year bond falling from 111.14 to 109.30, yield curve rising & flattening 30 yr +11bps; 10 yr +13bps, 6 mo +6bps. 30 yr @ 4.96%; 10 yr @ 4.80; 5 yr @ 4.73; 2yr @ 4.82; 6 mo @ 4.96.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - ?2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - ?
Resistance: DJIA 13620; SP500 1527; NAZ 2555; NDX 1905
Support: DJIA 13310; SP500 1500; NAZ 2520; NDX 1865
Over the last two weeks, some magic numbers with strong resistance... RUT 830, SOXX 500-505, NDX 1905. They still stand...
DJIA passing 13.5K closing, up 30 for 36; 45 record closes since Oct.; 23 YTD; and on a parallel with 1989 Nikkei 225: the DJIA is now 37 for 48.
SP500 hit 1522.75. We sense another up day to push past 1527.4 all time high, but how much gas is left in the tank and what will happen then?
Yesterday: "a complex topping process or a lengthy sideways consolidation for the next run up."
Watch out for the Chinese RMB revaluation and rate hike vis a vis being a proxy for a rising Yen.
A rising yen will give a haircut to carry trade margins and may cause an unwind. Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
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