Economic Reports 07/05/07
Summary: As expected ECB steady at 4%, BOE raised 25 bps to 5.75%.
Employment worsening, housing sector bleed continues into transportation, service & warehousing.
ISM Services "expanding" on a shrinking base of backlogs with declining new orders and slowing delivery times.
BOE & ECB Rate Announcement
BOE statement highlights:
"CPI inflation is likely to continue to fall back to around the 2%... risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term continued to lie to the upside."
ECB statement highlights:
"confirmed that the medium-term outlook for price stability remains subject to upside risks. At medium to longer horizons, the balance of risks remains on the downside, owing mainly to external factors.
These relate in particular to fears of a rise in protectionist pressures, the possibility of further increases in oil prices, concerns about possible disorderly developments owing to global imbalances and potential shifts in financial market sentiment."
Initial Claims 06/30 +2K at 318K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 3K. 4 week MA +1.75K at 318.5K. Continuing claims +84K at 2.569M; 4 week MA +9.75K at 2.513M
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
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State Change State Supplied Comment
NY +1,074 service
MI +1,319 automobile
CT +1,758 transportation, service
MA +4,539 transportation, warehousing, service
NJ +5,187 transportation, warehousing, service, public administration
ISM Services Jun 60.7 vs 59.7 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders DOWN 56.9 vs 57.4; Deliveries SLOWING 50.5 vs 49.5; Exports DOWN 59 vs 66; Imports UP 57.5 vs 55.5
Inventories DOWN 52.5 vs 61; Backlogs DOWN 46.5 vs 48; Purchasing and supply executives' comments include: "Minimal new orders" and "Eating up backlog."
"Although business this month is better than last month, business in 2007 has been worse than business in 2006." (Retail Trade)
Employment worsening, housing sector bleed continues into transportation, service & warehousing.
ISM Services "expanding" on a shrinking base of backlogs with declining new orders and slowing delivery times.
BOE & ECB Rate Announcement
BOE statement highlights:
"CPI inflation is likely to continue to fall back to around the 2%... risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term continued to lie to the upside."
ECB statement highlights:
"confirmed that the medium-term outlook for price stability remains subject to upside risks. At medium to longer horizons, the balance of risks remains on the downside, owing mainly to external factors.
These relate in particular to fears of a rise in protectionist pressures, the possibility of further increases in oil prices, concerns about possible disorderly developments owing to global imbalances and potential shifts in financial market sentiment."
Initial Claims 06/30 +2K at 318K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 3K. 4 week MA +1.75K at 318.5K. Continuing claims +84K at 2.569M; 4 week MA +9.75K at 2.513M
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
State Change State Supplied Comment
NY +1,074 service
MI +1,319 automobile
CT +1,758 transportation, service
MA +4,539 transportation, warehousing, service
NJ +5,187 transportation, warehousing, service, public administration
ISM Services Jun 60.7 vs 59.7 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders DOWN 56.9 vs 57.4; Deliveries SLOWING 50.5 vs 49.5; Exports DOWN 59 vs 66; Imports UP 57.5 vs 55.5
Inventories DOWN 52.5 vs 61; Backlogs DOWN 46.5 vs 48; Purchasing and supply executives' comments include: "Minimal new orders" and "Eating up backlog."
"Although business this month is better than last month, business in 2007 has been worse than business in 2006." (Retail Trade)
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