Economic Reports 08/01/07
Summary: Auto & Truck Sales along with the economy, driving off a cliff.
ISM confirms Chicago PMI decline, also that June increase was a surge before anticipated automotive plant strikes.
Pending home sales rise, but give little solace as a one off rise cannot stem the tide.
Auto & Truck Sales Jul:
Ford Motor Co. reported a 19% plunge in U.S. sales; DaimlerChrysler AG said its volume fell 9.1%; Sales at GM, the biggest U.S. automaker, may have fallen 16.5%, official number to be released later today.
ISM Index Jul 53.8 vs prior 56.0 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders down to 57.5 vs 60.3; Production down to 55.6 vs 62.9; Employment down to 50.2 vs 51.1.
Supplier deliveries up (slowing) to 52 vs 49.7; Backlog of orders down to 52.0 vs 53.5; Customers' inventories up to 51 vs 47; Manufacturer's Inventories up to 48.5 vs 45.3.
Good news? Prices paid down to 65.0 vs 68. But, "Oil still driving petrochemical prices up." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
And, "Profit margins shrinking as a result of energy, labor and commodity price increases." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics: "As the auto boost fades from the survey, we expect the headline index to slip back to 50% or so.
Much will depend on whether the currency gyrations in the market morph into a sustained credit crunch."
Pending Home Sales Jun +5% vs prior -3.5% Full Report
Inside the number: biggest gain since March 2004. West +8.6%; South +4.7% Midwest +3.5%; Northeast +3.1%. However, pending sales YOY -8.6%; YTD -11.1%.
Lawrence Yun, the NAR's senior economist: "major declines in home sales are likely to have occurred already and further declines, if any, are likely to be modest given the accumulating pent-up demand."
What would expect a paid NAR cheerleader to say? More paid lying... "Mortgage purchase applications are trending up." FYI Mr. Yun The Washington Post reporting:
"Demand for mortgage applications slid last week to its weakest level in more than five months, underscoring that the beleaguered U.S. housing sector has yet to bottom."
This week Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted mortgage applications index -0.3%; a third straight decline.
The MBA's purchase index -1.8% as the 4 week MA for applications and purchase indexes were down. Meanwhile, back to reality... Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics:
"We expect the index to continue heading south over the next few months; after three straight declines totaling 11.1%, a single 5.0% rise does not change the big picture."
ISM confirms Chicago PMI decline, also that June increase was a surge before anticipated automotive plant strikes.
Pending home sales rise, but give little solace as a one off rise cannot stem the tide.
Auto & Truck Sales Jul:
Ford Motor Co. reported a 19% plunge in U.S. sales; DaimlerChrysler AG said its volume fell 9.1%; Sales at GM, the biggest U.S. automaker, may have fallen 16.5%, official number to be released later today.
ISM Index Jul 53.8 vs prior 56.0 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders down to 57.5 vs 60.3; Production down to 55.6 vs 62.9; Employment down to 50.2 vs 51.1.
Supplier deliveries up (slowing) to 52 vs 49.7; Backlog of orders down to 52.0 vs 53.5; Customers' inventories up to 51 vs 47; Manufacturer's Inventories up to 48.5 vs 45.3.
Good news? Prices paid down to 65.0 vs 68. But, "Oil still driving petrochemical prices up." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
And, "Profit margins shrinking as a result of energy, labor and commodity price increases." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics: "As the auto boost fades from the survey, we expect the headline index to slip back to 50% or so.
Much will depend on whether the currency gyrations in the market morph into a sustained credit crunch."
Pending Home Sales Jun +5% vs prior -3.5% Full Report
Inside the number: biggest gain since March 2004. West +8.6%; South +4.7% Midwest +3.5%; Northeast +3.1%. However, pending sales YOY -8.6%; YTD -11.1%.
Lawrence Yun, the NAR's senior economist: "major declines in home sales are likely to have occurred already and further declines, if any, are likely to be modest given the accumulating pent-up demand."
What would expect a paid NAR cheerleader to say? More paid lying... "Mortgage purchase applications are trending up." FYI Mr. Yun The Washington Post reporting:
"Demand for mortgage applications slid last week to its weakest level in more than five months, underscoring that the beleaguered U.S. housing sector has yet to bottom."
This week Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted mortgage applications index -0.3%; a third straight decline.
The MBA's purchase index -1.8% as the 4 week MA for applications and purchase indexes were down. Meanwhile, back to reality... Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics:
"We expect the index to continue heading south over the next few months; after three straight declines totaling 11.1%, a single 5.0% rise does not change the big picture."
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