Economic Reports 08/03/07
Summary: ISM Services confirms slowing of the emasculated economy. Non Farms confirming the slow down and demonstrating an unfavorable economic base.
ISM Services Jul 55.8 vs prior 60.7 Full Report
Inside the number: an overall decline of 4.9%; new orders -4.1%; employment -3.3%; inventories +2.5%; deliveries +1% (slowing); exports -6.5%; imports -3%.
Good news? Prices paid -4.2%; backlog +6.5%;
Nonfarm Payrolls Jul +92K vs prior +132K Full Report
Inside the number: Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% vs prior 4.5%. Goods producing -12K; manufacturing -2K; government -28K.
Interesting codicil: construction -12K of which -7K confirms the slowdown in NON residential construction...
which had been stemming the tide from private residential construction job losses.
Where are the McJobs? May to June: Private service +132K; (Leisure & hospitality +22K; Education & health +39K; Professional & Bus +26K; Financial +27K)
From Table B1, the new economy in the last 12 months...
Private service +1.8M; (Leisure & hospitality +437K; Education & health +561K; Professional & Bus +323K; Financial +120K)
The old durable economy in the last 12 months: Goods producing -203K; (Construction -64K; Manufacturing -173K; (Durable goods -120K; Non Durable -53K); Autos -67K)
Private Service +1.8M - Goods Producing -203K = Total Private Jobs 1.597M. In the last year we traded 203K for +1.6M, sound good? Not so fast Joe.
1st: The 203K goods producing jobs paid more than the 1.6M service jobs
2nd: The "value add" from the service based jobs is minimal in comparison.
3rd: The resulting composition of the job base is unfavorable.
How so? Leisure & Hospitality +437K + Education & Health +561K = +998K
In other words, 66% of the jobs created +1M are in services which are the first to get cut back when budgets and spending go down.
Analysis over the last 5 years would show an even more stark transition in the composition of our job markets.
Our economy has been emasculated with low paying service based jobs that produce no tangible product output and very little "added value".
Should this economic downturn persist and increase in severity, the resulting economic malaise will be much lengthier and severe than the last one.
ISM Services Jul 55.8 vs prior 60.7 Full Report
Inside the number: an overall decline of 4.9%; new orders -4.1%; employment -3.3%; inventories +2.5%; deliveries +1% (slowing); exports -6.5%; imports -3%.
Good news? Prices paid -4.2%; backlog +6.5%;
Nonfarm Payrolls Jul +92K vs prior +132K Full Report
Inside the number: Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% vs prior 4.5%. Goods producing -12K; manufacturing -2K; government -28K.
Interesting codicil: construction -12K of which -7K confirms the slowdown in NON residential construction...
which had been stemming the tide from private residential construction job losses.
Where are the McJobs? May to June: Private service +132K; (Leisure & hospitality +22K; Education & health +39K; Professional & Bus +26K; Financial +27K)
From Table B1, the new economy in the last 12 months...
Private service +1.8M; (Leisure & hospitality +437K; Education & health +561K; Professional & Bus +323K; Financial +120K)
The old durable economy in the last 12 months: Goods producing -203K; (Construction -64K; Manufacturing -173K; (Durable goods -120K; Non Durable -53K); Autos -67K)
Private Service +1.8M - Goods Producing -203K = Total Private Jobs 1.597M. In the last year we traded 203K for +1.6M, sound good? Not so fast Joe.
1st: The 203K goods producing jobs paid more than the 1.6M service jobs
2nd: The "value add" from the service based jobs is minimal in comparison.
3rd: The resulting composition of the job base is unfavorable.
How so? Leisure & Hospitality +437K + Education & Health +561K = +998K
In other words, 66% of the jobs created +1M are in services which are the first to get cut back when budgets and spending go down.
Analysis over the last 5 years would show an even more stark transition in the composition of our job markets.
Our economy has been emasculated with low paying service based jobs that produce no tangible product output and very little "added value".
Should this economic downturn persist and increase in severity, the resulting economic malaise will be much lengthier and severe than the last one.
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