Market Observations 08/03/07
Mr. Toads wild ride continues...
SP500 took out the March & Jan highs, plunging 33 points in the last two hours and 40 on the day. XLF, HGX & RUT have been decimated.
Today, $7.5B in Fed Open Market Reanimation; volatility surged 18%, VIX 21.22 to 25.16;
DJIA under 100 DMA; SP500 under 200 DMA; 250 DMA 1425 awaits. NDX down to 1918; our magic number 100 DMA 1895 awaits.
Wend: "This ride ends late Friday or early Monday; also this market goes nowhere until $ vs Yen crossover gets back to 120, watch it."
Today, volatility rising takes the carry traders out of the game as the Yen gained and stocks suffered.
There is so much blood on the floor of the debt markets that it can't be sopped up. Too much debt for sale and no takers.
We sense a near term PPT bottom forming at NDX 1895 & SP500 1420, however... if volatility stays up and the carry traders continue to unwind, pushing up the Yen...
Today or Monday's inflection point may not be the end, but just the beginning of a very nasty 3rd leg down.
So, we reserve judgement on any potential change in market direction. Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
SP500 took out the March & Jan highs, plunging 33 points in the last two hours and 40 on the day. XLF, HGX & RUT have been decimated.
Today, $7.5B in Fed Open Market Reanimation; volatility surged 18%, VIX 21.22 to 25.16;
DJIA under 100 DMA; SP500 under 200 DMA; 250 DMA 1425 awaits. NDX down to 1918; our magic number 100 DMA 1895 awaits.
Wend: "This ride ends late Friday or early Monday; also this market goes nowhere until $ vs Yen crossover gets back to 120, watch it."
Today, volatility rising takes the carry traders out of the game as the Yen gained and stocks suffered.
There is so much blood on the floor of the debt markets that it can't be sopped up. Too much debt for sale and no takers.
We sense a near term PPT bottom forming at NDX 1895 & SP500 1420, however... if volatility stays up and the carry traders continue to unwind, pushing up the Yen...
Today or Monday's inflection point may not be the end, but just the beginning of a very nasty 3rd leg down.
So, we reserve judgement on any potential change in market direction. Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
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