Economic Reports 09/27/07
Summary: GDP falling from estimate, "growth" on one off large inventories & net exports swings.
The economy: residential investment, still plunging. Stagflation growing with PCE the highest since 1990.
Consumer spending decelerating fast, the largest drop in non durable goods spending in 16 years.
Initial claims improving near term as long term unemployment rose and the bleed into other sectors continues.
The housing debacle continues with New Home Sales sliding down to a 7 year low, median prices falling the most in 37 years.
GDP-Final Q2 +3.8% vs +4.0% Full Report
Inside the number: Residential investments -11.8% vs -16.3%. Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist for MFR:
"The big swings in inventories and net exports, which proved so important to the improvement in overall growth in the second quarter, will not be replicated.
Moreover, housing activity is weakening significantly further, and consumer spending is soggy."
Boosted by higher energy prices, the personal consumption expenditure price index rose at a 4.3% annual rate vs +3.5%, the fastest inflation since the Gulf War in 1990.
Consumer spending decelerating +1.4% vs +3.7%. Spending on durable goods +1.7% vs +8.8% and spending on services +2.3% vs +3.1%,
Meanwhile, John Q. is strapped trying to make ends meet, spending on nondurable goods -0.5% vs +3%, the biggest drop in 16 years.
Initial Claims 09/22 -15K at 298K vs 313K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -9.75K at 311.5K. Continuing unemployment +11K at 2.551M; 4 week MA -5.5K at 2.570M
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
NJ +1,060 construction, trade, service
NC +1,211 textile, transportation equipment
IN +1,529 automobile
GA +1,608 manufacturing
SC +2,180 manufacturing
FL +3,510 construction, trade, service, manufacturing, agriculture
CA +5,370 construction, service
New Home Sales Aug -8.3% 795K vs 867K Full Report
Inside the number: Sales at a 7 year low; YOY -21.2%; YTD -21.3%. Inventories declining 1.5%; YOY -6.9%.
However, with the sales rate declining, the workoff rate rose 7.9% to an 8.2 months supply, YOY +20.6%.
Sequential Sales: NE +42.3%; MW +20.5%; S -14.7%; West -20.8%
YOY NE -14%; MW -11.2%; S -27.1%; West -16%
Most importantly YTD NE +9.2%; MW -22.4%; S -20.8%; West -28.5%
And worse yet: From August 2006, avergage price -7.9%; median price -7.4%, the largest YOY decline since 1970.
Sit down, strap in, and start screaming, cuz the worst is yet to come. How fast?
From Mar 07: median price -16%. Accelerating exponentially? From last month, average price -4.6%; median price -8.3%.
The economy: residential investment, still plunging. Stagflation growing with PCE the highest since 1990.
Consumer spending decelerating fast, the largest drop in non durable goods spending in 16 years.
Initial claims improving near term as long term unemployment rose and the bleed into other sectors continues.
The housing debacle continues with New Home Sales sliding down to a 7 year low, median prices falling the most in 37 years.
GDP-Final Q2 +3.8% vs +4.0% Full Report
Inside the number: Residential investments -11.8% vs -16.3%. Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist for MFR:
"The big swings in inventories and net exports, which proved so important to the improvement in overall growth in the second quarter, will not be replicated.
Moreover, housing activity is weakening significantly further, and consumer spending is soggy."
Boosted by higher energy prices, the personal consumption expenditure price index rose at a 4.3% annual rate vs +3.5%, the fastest inflation since the Gulf War in 1990.
Consumer spending decelerating +1.4% vs +3.7%. Spending on durable goods +1.7% vs +8.8% and spending on services +2.3% vs +3.1%,
Meanwhile, John Q. is strapped trying to make ends meet, spending on nondurable goods -0.5% vs +3%, the biggest drop in 16 years.
Initial Claims 09/22 -15K at 298K vs 313K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -9.75K at 311.5K. Continuing unemployment +11K at 2.551M; 4 week MA -5.5K at 2.570M
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
NJ +1,060 construction, trade, service
NC +1,211 textile, transportation equipment
IN +1,529 automobile
GA +1,608 manufacturing
SC +2,180 manufacturing
FL +3,510 construction, trade, service, manufacturing, agriculture
CA +5,370 construction, service
New Home Sales Aug -8.3% 795K vs 867K Full Report
Inside the number: Sales at a 7 year low; YOY -21.2%; YTD -21.3%. Inventories declining 1.5%; YOY -6.9%.
However, with the sales rate declining, the workoff rate rose 7.9% to an 8.2 months supply, YOY +20.6%.
Sequential Sales: NE +42.3%; MW +20.5%; S -14.7%; West -20.8%
YOY NE -14%; MW -11.2%; S -27.1%; West -16%
Most importantly YTD NE +9.2%; MW -22.4%; S -20.8%; West -28.5%
And worse yet: From August 2006, avergage price -7.9%; median price -7.4%, the largest YOY decline since 1970.
Sit down, strap in, and start screaming, cuz the worst is yet to come. How fast?
From Mar 07: median price -16%. Accelerating exponentially? From last month, average price -4.6%; median price -8.3%.
Comments