Economic Reports 12/05/07
Summary: Headline factory orders up, under the sheets... further deterioration.
Manufacturing with unfilled orders declining for the 3rd straight month as inventories build.
Non defense capital goods ex aircraft orders dropping 2% and negative for the year.
Headline productivity rising, under the sheets... evident emasculation
through a sequential decline in unit labor costs, hours worked and YOY real compensation.
The decline in hours worked and labor costs evidences massive layoffs. Worse yet, despite lower real compensation and outsourcing...
Non financial sector unit profits declining YOY for the 3rd straight quarter, plunging double digits sequentially and YOY.
ISM services evidences a slowing economy strangled by stagflation with contracting backlog, skyrocketing prices and an inventory build.
Factory Orders Oct +0.5% vs prior +0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: Durable goods orders Oct -0.2%; Sept -1.4%; Aug -5.3%. All manufacturing with unfilled orders: Oct -0.3%; Sept -0.9%; Aug -6.4%. Inventories: Oct +0.4%; Sept +0.3%; Aug +0.1%
Non defense capital goods ex aircraft: shipments -0.9%; YTD -0.5%. new orders -2%; YTD -1.7%. inventories +0.6%; YTD +3.8%
Productivity-Rev. Q3 +5.7% vs prior +4.4%. Full Report
Inside the number: Unit labor costs Q3 vs Q2: Business -2%; Non Farm -2%; Manufacturing -3.3%; Durable -5.1%; Non Durable -1.3%.
Table 1 Business sector sequential hours worked -1%; unit labor costs Q2 -1.1%; Q3 -2%.
Table 2 Non Farm business sequential unit labor costs Q2 -1.1%; Q3 -2%; Hours worked Q3 -0.6%
Table 3 Manufacturing hours worked YOY Q1 -1.1%; Q2 -1.1%; Q3 -0.8%. Sequential Real Compensation Q2 -6.9%; Q3 -0.3%. Hours worked Q3 -0.8%
Table 5 Non durable sequential hours worked Q3 -2.3%; YOY -0.7%. Table 4 Durable Real Compensation -1.2%; YOY Durable Hours Worked Q1 -1.5%; Q2 -1.9%; Q3 -0.9%.
Table 6 Non financial sector unit profits percentage change YOY: Q1 -6.1%; Q2 -4.1%; Q3 -10.8%.
ISM Services Nov 54.1 vs prior 55.8 Full Report
Inside the number: Growing slower: Activity, New Orders 51.1 vs 55.7; Employment 50.8 vs 51.8; Export orders 55.6 vs 56.
Contracting: Backlog 48.5 vs 43.5; Imports 49.5 vs 55.5. Increasing: Prices 76.5 vs 63.5; Inventories 50.5 vs 49.5.
Manufacturing with unfilled orders declining for the 3rd straight month as inventories build.
Non defense capital goods ex aircraft orders dropping 2% and negative for the year.
Headline productivity rising, under the sheets... evident emasculation
through a sequential decline in unit labor costs, hours worked and YOY real compensation.
The decline in hours worked and labor costs evidences massive layoffs. Worse yet, despite lower real compensation and outsourcing...
Non financial sector unit profits declining YOY for the 3rd straight quarter, plunging double digits sequentially and YOY.
ISM services evidences a slowing economy strangled by stagflation with contracting backlog, skyrocketing prices and an inventory build.
Factory Orders Oct +0.5% vs prior +0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: Durable goods orders Oct -0.2%; Sept -1.4%; Aug -5.3%. All manufacturing with unfilled orders: Oct -0.3%; Sept -0.9%; Aug -6.4%. Inventories: Oct +0.4%; Sept +0.3%; Aug +0.1%
Non defense capital goods ex aircraft: shipments -0.9%; YTD -0.5%. new orders -2%; YTD -1.7%. inventories +0.6%; YTD +3.8%
Productivity-Rev. Q3 +5.7% vs prior +4.4%. Full Report
Inside the number: Unit labor costs Q3 vs Q2: Business -2%; Non Farm -2%; Manufacturing -3.3%; Durable -5.1%; Non Durable -1.3%.
Table 1 Business sector sequential hours worked -1%; unit labor costs Q2 -1.1%; Q3 -2%.
Table 2 Non Farm business sequential unit labor costs Q2 -1.1%; Q3 -2%; Hours worked Q3 -0.6%
Table 3 Manufacturing hours worked YOY Q1 -1.1%; Q2 -1.1%; Q3 -0.8%. Sequential Real Compensation Q2 -6.9%; Q3 -0.3%. Hours worked Q3 -0.8%
Table 5 Non durable sequential hours worked Q3 -2.3%; YOY -0.7%. Table 4 Durable Real Compensation -1.2%; YOY Durable Hours Worked Q1 -1.5%; Q2 -1.9%; Q3 -0.9%.
Table 6 Non financial sector unit profits percentage change YOY: Q1 -6.1%; Q2 -4.1%; Q3 -10.8%.
ISM Services Nov 54.1 vs prior 55.8 Full Report
Inside the number: Growing slower: Activity, New Orders 51.1 vs 55.7; Employment 50.8 vs 51.8; Export orders 55.6 vs 56.
Contracting: Backlog 48.5 vs 43.5; Imports 49.5 vs 55.5. Increasing: Prices 76.5 vs 63.5; Inventories 50.5 vs 49.5.
"The trend for reduced job awards and for business activities continues. The trend started in October. We do not see any trend for more business activity or job awards throughout the end of December 2007." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
"Third-quarter profits were significant and fourth-quarter projections are very optimistic for our corporation." (Wholesale Trade)
"Fallout over the subprime financial markets continues to have an impact on overall business. The impact includes the levels of goods and services required to operate and the impact on budget plans into 2008." (Finance & Insurance)
"Costs related to crude oil pricing affecting our business." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
"Increased activity to support newly approved and added 2008 and 2009 capital projects." (Utilities)
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