Economic Reports 12/07/07
More bad debt and less spending???
Someone thinks credit card companies may have large write offs of bad debt and consumer spending is going to decline.
Capital One was downgraded to Underweight from Overweight and had its price target lowered $45 from $88 at Morgan Stanley.
Discover and American Express were downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
Nonfarm Payrolls Nov +94K vs prior +170K Full Report
Inside the number: Unemployment increased as real earnings declined. YOY Rate Nov 4.7% vs Nov 06 4.5% (7.2 million vs 6.8 million).
Real Earnings Nov 06 8.36 vs Oct 07 8.32 = -4 cents per hour.
Emasculation of durable economic activity continues. Goods producing -33K; Construction -24K; Manufacturing -11K; Financial services -20K.
Service providing +127K (private +97K; accomodations & food services +27K).
Long term unemployment becoming more pernicious. Table A9 Duration of Unemployment & % of unemployed:
YOY 15+ weeks +225K or 33.4% vs 31.6%; 27+ weeks +245K or 19.5% vs 16.8%.
Table A1 YOY Seasonally Adjusted: Non institutional population +3.034M; Employed +1.080M; Civilian Labor Force +1.421M.
Not counted in the labor force: +1.613M. After 27 weeks you are no longer counted in the labor force.
Table A12 U-6 Total unemployed plus marginally attached, plus part time, as a % of civilian labor force YOY 8.4% vs 7.8%.
Civilian labor force 153.870 M x 0.084 = 12.925 million in U6
Real unemployment rate: U6 13 million + Not counted in the labor force increase 1.6M = 14.6M/154M = 9.48%, twice the advertised rate.
Someone thinks credit card companies may have large write offs of bad debt and consumer spending is going to decline.
Capital One was downgraded to Underweight from Overweight and had its price target lowered $45 from $88 at Morgan Stanley.
Discover and American Express were downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
Nonfarm Payrolls Nov +94K vs prior +170K Full Report
Inside the number: Unemployment increased as real earnings declined. YOY Rate Nov 4.7% vs Nov 06 4.5% (7.2 million vs 6.8 million).
Real Earnings Nov 06 8.36 vs Oct 07 8.32 = -4 cents per hour.
Emasculation of durable economic activity continues. Goods producing -33K; Construction -24K; Manufacturing -11K; Financial services -20K.
Service providing +127K (private +97K; accomodations & food services +27K).
Long term unemployment becoming more pernicious. Table A9 Duration of Unemployment & % of unemployed:
YOY 15+ weeks +225K or 33.4% vs 31.6%; 27+ weeks +245K or 19.5% vs 16.8%.
Table A1 YOY Seasonally Adjusted: Non institutional population +3.034M; Employed +1.080M; Civilian Labor Force +1.421M.
Not counted in the labor force: +1.613M. After 27 weeks you are no longer counted in the labor force.
Table A12 U-6 Total unemployed plus marginally attached, plus part time, as a % of civilian labor force YOY 8.4% vs 7.8%.
Civilian labor force 153.870 M x 0.084 = 12.925 million in U6
Real unemployment rate: U6 13 million + Not counted in the labor force increase 1.6M = 14.6M/154M = 9.48%, twice the advertised rate.
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