Economic Reports 01/30/08
Summary: Contraction across the board...
led by a sequential (7 consecutive quarters) of double digit declines in residential fixed investment (AKA HOUSING; see Table 1).
Emasculation of the durable economy, led by a 27.2% quarterly decline in Motor Vehicle Output (Appendix A)...
And a sequential (11 consecutive quarters) decline in the durable goods PCE price index (AKA Greenspans Productivity "Miracle"; see Table 4).
GDP-Adv. Q4 +0.6% vs prior +4.9% Full Report
Inside the number: The decline on shrinking inventories (-1.25% vs Q3 +0.89% of GDP "growth");
sequentially declining residential fixed investment (-23.9% vs Q3 -20.5%; -1.18% vs Q3 -1.08% of "growth")
and despite $90 a barrel oil imports, a deceleration in imports (+0.3% vs Q3 +4.4%); in exports (+3.9% vs Q3 +19.1%),
in PCE (+2% vs Q3 +2.8%) and federal government spending (+0.3% vs Q3 +7.1%).
The "robust" new economy that is going to save us: final sales of computers added 0.18% to "growth" vs 0.28% in Q3.
The Days of Yore... Motor vehicle output subtracted 0.90% vs adding 0.36% in Q3.
Non farm gross value added +0.4% vs Q3 +5.6%; and despite double digit increases in food & feed costs... Farm gross value added -13% vs Q3 +9.6%
True American Patriots... 2007 corporate Cap Ex gone negative...
Gross private domestic investment -4.6%; fixed investment -2.9%; residential fixed investment -16.9%.
PCE Price Index on track for double digit annual stagflation +3.9% vs Q3 +1.8%. Market based PCE +3.8% vs Q3 +1.4%.
Yet, deceleration in PCE breakout shows John Q pulling back amidst stagflation being advertised as "growth"...
durable +4.2 vs +4.5; non durable +1.9 vs +2.2%; services +1.6% vs +2.8%.
John Q has less money to spend: Real disposable income down 50% Q4 $25.1 billion vs $56.7 billion in Q3.
Resulting in decelerating real gross domestic purchases of goods & services +0.2% vs Q3 +3.3%. Goods -0.17% of GDP vs Q3 +3.48%.
And a debt riddled and crippled society with no savings: Q4 2007 Personal saving as a % of disposable income $25 billion or 0.2%.
The Nattering One muses... Yesterday's Durable Goods report showed Dec durable goods inventories +1.1%; for 2007 +3.7%; up five of the last six months,
And unfilled orders +2.5%; for 2007 +18.5%; up thirty-one of the last thirty-two months,
both at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992.
The question is: Is it shrinking inventories (according to today's GDP report) or record level inventories?
Whom are we to believe? or better yet... Which way did it go George? Which way did it go?
We called for Q3 at or near zero with Q4 negative, just 90 days ahead of the curve.
Its official, we are in a recession, with Q4 going near 0.5%; Q1 GDP should go to zero or negative as the service industry layoffs cascade.
led by a sequential (7 consecutive quarters) of double digit declines in residential fixed investment (AKA HOUSING; see Table 1).
Emasculation of the durable economy, led by a 27.2% quarterly decline in Motor Vehicle Output (Appendix A)...
And a sequential (11 consecutive quarters) decline in the durable goods PCE price index (AKA Greenspans Productivity "Miracle"; see Table 4).
GDP-Adv. Q4 +0.6% vs prior +4.9% Full Report
Inside the number: The decline on shrinking inventories (-1.25% vs Q3 +0.89% of GDP "growth");
sequentially declining residential fixed investment (-23.9% vs Q3 -20.5%; -1.18% vs Q3 -1.08% of "growth")
and despite $90 a barrel oil imports, a deceleration in imports (+0.3% vs Q3 +4.4%); in exports (+3.9% vs Q3 +19.1%),
in PCE (+2% vs Q3 +2.8%) and federal government spending (+0.3% vs Q3 +7.1%).
The "robust" new economy that is going to save us: final sales of computers added 0.18% to "growth" vs 0.28% in Q3.
The Days of Yore... Motor vehicle output subtracted 0.90% vs adding 0.36% in Q3.
Non farm gross value added +0.4% vs Q3 +5.6%; and despite double digit increases in food & feed costs... Farm gross value added -13% vs Q3 +9.6%
True American Patriots... 2007 corporate Cap Ex gone negative...
Gross private domestic investment -4.6%; fixed investment -2.9%; residential fixed investment -16.9%.
PCE Price Index on track for double digit annual stagflation +3.9% vs Q3 +1.8%. Market based PCE +3.8% vs Q3 +1.4%.
Yet, deceleration in PCE breakout shows John Q pulling back amidst stagflation being advertised as "growth"...
durable +4.2 vs +4.5; non durable +1.9 vs +2.2%; services +1.6% vs +2.8%.
John Q has less money to spend: Real disposable income down 50% Q4 $25.1 billion vs $56.7 billion in Q3.
Resulting in decelerating real gross domestic purchases of goods & services +0.2% vs Q3 +3.3%. Goods -0.17% of GDP vs Q3 +3.48%.
And a debt riddled and crippled society with no savings: Q4 2007 Personal saving as a % of disposable income $25 billion or 0.2%.
The Nattering One muses... Yesterday's Durable Goods report showed Dec durable goods inventories +1.1%; for 2007 +3.7%; up five of the last six months,
And unfilled orders +2.5%; for 2007 +18.5%; up thirty-one of the last thirty-two months,
both at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992.
The question is: Is it shrinking inventories (according to today's GDP report) or record level inventories?
Whom are we to believe? or better yet... Which way did it go George? Which way did it go?
We called for Q3 at or near zero with Q4 negative, just 90 days ahead of the curve.
Its official, we are in a recession, with Q4 going near 0.5%; Q1 GDP should go to zero or negative as the service industry layoffs cascade.
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