Economic Reports 02/01/08
Summary: Auto & Truck Sales declining again as John Q has empty pockets.
Construction spending, a 30% decline in private SFR, more ominous, a double digit drop in public commercial construction.
ISM manufacturing in poor health, exhibiting stagflation woes, with new orders & employment contracting, while prices surge.
Non Farm Payrolls, went from low growth to NEGATIVE, and further evidence that 2007 had NEGATIVE job growth as well.
Auto & Truck Sales
Ford -4.1%; Trucks -8.4%; Honda -2.3%; Isuzu will be pulling out of North American market in 2009; Chrysler, Toyota & GM will be reporting declines later today.
Construction Spending Dec -1.1% vs prior -0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised down from +0.1%. YOY -2.3%. Residential -2.7%; YOY -20.1%. Private construction -1%; YOY -6.1%;
Private residential -2.8%; YOY -20.4%. Private SFR's -5.4%; YOY -30.8%; Public Commercial Construction YOY -19.6%.
What has plagued residential, now manifests commercial, which had picked up the slack.
ISM Index Jan 50.7 vs prior 48.4 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders contracting 49.5 vs 46.9; Production growing 55.2 vs 48.6;
Employment contracting 47.1 vs 48.7; Prices surging 76 vs 68; Backlog contracting 44 vs 43.
"We are in a squeeze between supplier pressure to raise prices and customer pressure to reduce prices." (Chemical Products)
"The softness in residential construction has begun to manifest itself in commercial construction." (Machinery)
"Commodity prices continue to trade at all-time highs." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
"Customer demand was generally soft last month due to the holidays and a downturn in automobile production." (Fabricated Metal Products)
Manufacturers, state governments and construction companies lost jobs. Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia:
"Employment fell across a broad assortment of industries, It raises a number of red flags for the economy.
There is no question economic growth has slowed to a crawl and the risks of recession are significant.
That is why the Fed has cut interest rates so aggressively."
Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -17K vs prior +82K Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up +65K. 1st negative job "growth" since Aug 03. Unemployment Rate Jan 4.9% vs prior 5.0%
Service +34K vs prior +143K. Goods producing -51K; Manufacturing -28K; Construction -27K; Government -18K; Oh and by the way...
"Adjustments to the estimates of net international migration caused 376,000 jobs to be subtracted from the previous estimate for the year ended December 2007, bringing total job growth for the period down to 1.137 million." (we come back to this later)
Over the same period Table A13 shows Total NOT in the labor force +1.062 million.
Yet, marginally attached, looking for work, but not counted as unemployed, 1.7 million. Table A12 U6 Total Unemployed + marginally attached + part time = 9%
Are people fleeing across the borders? Table C:
Civilian noninstitutional population -745K; Civilian labor force -637K; Employed -598K; Unemployed -40K.
You mean 598K people with jobs disappeared while only 40K unemployed hopped the fences?
According to the release 1.137 million new jobs in 2007. Upon further review Table A1: Population +1.966 Million; Work Force +866K; Not in Work Force +1.1 Million...
and Employed +333K; Unemployed +533K. Did you get the last two numbers?
More people lost jobs than gained one, while the not counted number grew by 1 million.
Man they should change the agency name from BLS to just BS. We cheerfully remind everyone, one more time...
40% of S&P based on financials; 80% of all new jobs since 2001; based on housing; 70% of the economy based on consumer spending.
Falling home and stock values, layoffs just starting, do the math, this story DOES NOT have a happy ending and the worst is yet to come.
Construction spending, a 30% decline in private SFR, more ominous, a double digit drop in public commercial construction.
ISM manufacturing in poor health, exhibiting stagflation woes, with new orders & employment contracting, while prices surge.
Non Farm Payrolls, went from low growth to NEGATIVE, and further evidence that 2007 had NEGATIVE job growth as well.
Auto & Truck Sales
Ford -4.1%; Trucks -8.4%; Honda -2.3%; Isuzu will be pulling out of North American market in 2009; Chrysler, Toyota & GM will be reporting declines later today.
Construction Spending Dec -1.1% vs prior -0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised down from +0.1%. YOY -2.3%. Residential -2.7%; YOY -20.1%. Private construction -1%; YOY -6.1%;
Private residential -2.8%; YOY -20.4%. Private SFR's -5.4%; YOY -30.8%; Public Commercial Construction YOY -19.6%.
What has plagued residential, now manifests commercial, which had picked up the slack.
ISM Index Jan 50.7 vs prior 48.4 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders contracting 49.5 vs 46.9; Production growing 55.2 vs 48.6;
Employment contracting 47.1 vs 48.7; Prices surging 76 vs 68; Backlog contracting 44 vs 43.
"We are in a squeeze between supplier pressure to raise prices and customer pressure to reduce prices." (Chemical Products)
"The softness in residential construction has begun to manifest itself in commercial construction." (Machinery)
"Commodity prices continue to trade at all-time highs." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
"Customer demand was generally soft last month due to the holidays and a downturn in automobile production." (Fabricated Metal Products)
Manufacturers, state governments and construction companies lost jobs. Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia:
"Employment fell across a broad assortment of industries, It raises a number of red flags for the economy.
There is no question economic growth has slowed to a crawl and the risks of recession are significant.
That is why the Fed has cut interest rates so aggressively."
Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -17K vs prior +82K Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up +65K. 1st negative job "growth" since Aug 03. Unemployment Rate Jan 4.9% vs prior 5.0%
Service +34K vs prior +143K. Goods producing -51K; Manufacturing -28K; Construction -27K; Government -18K; Oh and by the way...
"Adjustments to the estimates of net international migration caused 376,000 jobs to be subtracted from the previous estimate for the year ended December 2007, bringing total job growth for the period down to 1.137 million." (we come back to this later)
Over the same period Table A13 shows Total NOT in the labor force +1.062 million.
Yet, marginally attached, looking for work, but not counted as unemployed, 1.7 million. Table A12 U6 Total Unemployed + marginally attached + part time = 9%
Are people fleeing across the borders? Table C:
Civilian noninstitutional population -745K; Civilian labor force -637K; Employed -598K; Unemployed -40K.
You mean 598K people with jobs disappeared while only 40K unemployed hopped the fences?
According to the release 1.137 million new jobs in 2007. Upon further review Table A1: Population +1.966 Million; Work Force +866K; Not in Work Force +1.1 Million...
and Employed +333K; Unemployed +533K. Did you get the last two numbers?
More people lost jobs than gained one, while the not counted number grew by 1 million.
Man they should change the agency name from BLS to just BS. We cheerfully remind everyone, one more time...
40% of S&P based on financials; 80% of all new jobs since 2001; based on housing; 70% of the economy based on consumer spending.
Falling home and stock values, layoffs just starting, do the math, this story DOES NOT have a happy ending and the worst is yet to come.
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