A Dark Scary Cave: Conseco; PMI Group; Bear Stearns

Did they use Steroids? Insurance co, Conseco, (Bankers Life, Colonial Penn) reported a preliminary net loss of $72.2 million, stock down 13%.

Low expectations... March 3rd PMI Group expected a $236 Million Q4 loss... today, the #1 mortgage insurer reported...

a full year net loss of $915 Million and a Q4 net loss of... $1 Billion.

The losses were... "primarily due to our equity in the losses from FGIC of $776.1 million (after tax)

and a net loss of $236.0 million in the U.S. Mortgage Insurance Operations due to increases in

paid claims, loss adjustment expenses and additions to the reserve for losses."

Dark Scary Bear Cave... In light of entering into an agreement to merge with JPMorgan Chase,

The Bear Stearns Companies did not announce their Q108 financial results. And thats probably a good thing, because...

a class action lawsuit against Bear has been filed. The lawsuit alleges Bear management made false and misleading statements.

Last year, Joseph Lewis, the second-largest holder of Bear Stearns stock,

paid an average of about $107 apiece for 11 million shares, acquiring 9.4% of the firm.

Bear's biggest investor at year-end was money manager Barrow Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss Inc., with 9.7%.

Yesterday Lewis lost $1.16 billion on his stake and Barrow's holding fell by $991 million.

The Nattering One muses... like we said, the next shoe to drop is not the bond guarantors Ambac & MBIA... its the mortgage insurance co's.

And when they fall, the banks who have been walking the high wire with confidence, will have no safety net below.

And thats when the bank owned real estate goes on fire sale and the bottom truly drops out on real estate and mortgage based debt.

For those not wanting to wind up like Lewis & Barrow, I have ten words for you... before its too late, get out while you still can.

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