Philadelphia Fed; Leading Indicators; Initial Claims
Summary: The economy laying down dead next to John Q.
Unemployment claims increasing, long term worsens as the bleed into the service sector broadens.
Leading indicators 5th straight decline and Philly Fed 4th straight month of contraction.
Initial Claims 03/15 +22K at 378K vs prior 356K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 3K. 4 week MA +6K at 354.25K. Continuing unemployment +32K at 2.865M; 4 week MA +19.75K at 2.832M.
See states with increases over 1K for the bleed.
Leading Indicators Feb -0.3% vs prior -0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: increasing negatively: average weekly initial claims for unemployment, building permits,
vendor performance, index of consumer expectations, and stock prices.
The leading index has been on a downtrend since the middle of 2007,
and the weaknesses among its components have become very widespread in the last three months;
the last time the leading index worsened for five consecutive months was in early 2001.
Philadelphia Fed Mar -17.4 vs prior -24 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders -9.3 vs -10.9; Shipments -6.3 vs -12.2; Prices Paid 54.4 vs 46.6; Prices Received 21.2 vs 24.3
Number of employees -4.7 vs 2.5; average workweek -10 vs -3.9; unfilled orders -18.7 vs -10.9; capex -2.7 vs +1.7
Unemployment claims increasing, long term worsens as the bleed into the service sector broadens.
Leading indicators 5th straight decline and Philly Fed 4th straight month of contraction.
Initial Claims 03/15 +22K at 378K vs prior 356K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 3K. 4 week MA +6K at 354.25K. Continuing unemployment +32K at 2.865M; 4 week MA +19.75K at 2.832M.
See states with increases over 1K for the bleed.
Leading Indicators Feb -0.3% vs prior -0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: increasing negatively: average weekly initial claims for unemployment, building permits,
vendor performance, index of consumer expectations, and stock prices.
The leading index has been on a downtrend since the middle of 2007,
and the weaknesses among its components have become very widespread in the last three months;
the last time the leading index worsened for five consecutive months was in early 2001.
Philadelphia Fed Mar -17.4 vs prior -24 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders -9.3 vs -10.9; Shipments -6.3 vs -12.2; Prices Paid 54.4 vs 46.6; Prices Received 21.2 vs 24.3
Number of employees -4.7 vs 2.5; average workweek -10 vs -3.9; unfilled orders -18.7 vs -10.9; capex -2.7 vs +1.7
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