Play It Again Sam

Yesterday, Morgan Stanley shares jumped 18% after Goldman Sachs & Lehman Brothers, "beat" the number.

After reporting its first quarterly loss ever in Q3, today MS reported earnings that fell less than analysts estimated.

The second-biggest U.S. securities firm, reported a 42% drop in Q1 net income, while Q1 revenue fell 17% to $8.3 billion.

Revenue at its fixed-income sales and trading group dropped 15% to $2.9 billion, after total asset writedowns of $2.3 billion.

The Nattering One muses... Yesterday, Lehman gained 46%; Goldman surged 16% and MS stock was up another 10% in todays trading.

And a BK broker, Bear Stearns, was up 36%? All because the LOSSES were LESS than expected???

Let's have a Nattering Review: Q1 Earnings: Goldman Sachs -53%; Lehman -57%; Morgan Stanley -42%;

Return on equity, a measure of how effectively a firm reinvests earnings: dropped to

19.7% vs 30.9% at Morgan Stanley; and 8.6% vs 24% at Lehman; and 15% vs 38% at Goldman.

Aside from the reported Q1 fundamentals and losses being absolutely horrible...

Liquidity reserves or liquid assets plus cash: Goldman Sachs $60 billion; Morgan Stanley $77 billion; Lehman Brothers had the highest with $94 billion, however...

Lehman Brothers , fell in German trading after Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.'s Brad Hintz said the securities firm

has $87 billion in "troubled" mortgage-related assets that will probably cause more losses.

$94 billion on hand vs $87 billion troubled, hmmm....

Wake up oh ye ebullient fools, do you think that perhaps: a further review of Goldman and Morgan Stanleys reports might reveal the same troubling ratios?

and ARM resets; defaults and Real Estate price declines will continue to increase?

and there will be MORE WRITEDOWNS ON THE TROUBLED DEBT? and there will be MORE LOSSES reported?

Maybe as the companies are on the verge of bankruptcy, much like Bear Stearns, the stocks will double, or be driven up to hit new peaks?

Wake up Rip Van Investor, the worst is yet to come and the bottom is nowhere in sight.

Keep reading The Final Arbiter for our conclusion that the Fed is almost out of ammo and we have not only entered a recession, but a liquidity trap as well.

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