Market Soapbox 10/28/08
TUE, chump pump, DJIA +889 on heavy volume with pristine internals. ALL UP 10%.
Bonds down BIG 10 yr +23bps 3.83, $ porked vs 1.2716 & vs 98.45y, WTI +2% $64.75 gold +2% $746.3, TED spread down -5bps 2.71%. 3mo Libor down -5bps 3.46.
SP500 848, dip to 845, rocket ride to close 940. NDX 1169, gap up 1210, dip back to 1174, rocket ride to close 1297.
FRI: preopening stock index futures plunged to daily limit; which halts trading; Vix hit an all time high 89.
MON: 18 regional U.S. banks, including SunTrust & Capital One accepted $35 billion in government cash.
Overnight... Nikkei +6.4%; Hang Seng +14.4%; DAX +11.3%.
Today... consumer confidence hit 23.4, the lowest reading ever, yet ebullient bankers flocked to "bargains". Why?
Yesterday, the Fed bought $60 billion of frozen long term commercial paper... freeing up the money to be placed in other assets.
1,511 issues totaling a record $67.1 billion of debt due in more than 80 days, compared with a daily average of 340 issues valued at $6.7 billion last week.
Who do you believe? Realtors... Yoy median price: existing home -9%; new home -9.1%.
Or the August S&P/Case-Shiller home price index Yoy -16.6%, the fasted pace ever.
Chrysler and GM (had their credit ratings cut at Moody's, Ford's rating put on review for a downgrade.
Wal-Mart plans to cut its store expansion plans. GE used the Fed's commercial paper facility.
10/15: NDX 1130 could provide a bounce on the way down to 975. 1146 on 10/24 may have been close enough.
If the Fed does not cut, this market will dive like the Titanic. This short covering head fake will not last long... take advantage.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Bonds down BIG 10 yr +23bps 3.83, $ porked vs 1.2716 & vs 98.45y, WTI +2% $64.75 gold +2% $746.3, TED spread down -5bps 2.71%. 3mo Libor down -5bps 3.46.
SP500 848, dip to 845, rocket ride to close 940. NDX 1169, gap up 1210, dip back to 1174, rocket ride to close 1297.
FRI: preopening stock index futures plunged to daily limit; which halts trading; Vix hit an all time high 89.
MON: 18 regional U.S. banks, including SunTrust & Capital One accepted $35 billion in government cash.
Overnight... Nikkei +6.4%; Hang Seng +14.4%; DAX +11.3%.
Today... consumer confidence hit 23.4, the lowest reading ever, yet ebullient bankers flocked to "bargains". Why?
Yesterday, the Fed bought $60 billion of frozen long term commercial paper... freeing up the money to be placed in other assets.
1,511 issues totaling a record $67.1 billion of debt due in more than 80 days, compared with a daily average of 340 issues valued at $6.7 billion last week.
Who do you believe? Realtors... Yoy median price: existing home -9%; new home -9.1%.
Or the August S&P/Case-Shiller home price index Yoy -16.6%, the fasted pace ever.
Chrysler and GM (had their credit ratings cut at Moody's, Ford's rating put on review for a downgrade.
Wal-Mart plans to cut its store expansion plans. GE used the Fed's commercial paper facility.
10/15: NDX 1130 could provide a bounce on the way down to 975. 1146 on 10/24 may have been close enough.
If the Fed does not cut, this market will dive like the Titanic. This short covering head fake will not last long... take advantage.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Comments