Market Soapbox 10/30/08
THU, wild swings, DJIA +190 on average volume with sterling internals.
All UP 3%+ Bonds down 10 yr +11bps 3.96. $ up vs 1.2883 & down vs 98.895y, WTI -4% $65.59, gold -2% $739.6; TED Spread down -3bps 2.81%; Libor -23bps 3.19
SP500 922, gap up 939, dip to 928, rise to 963, fade to 954. NDX 1302, gap up 1333, dip to 1301, rise to 1344, fade to 1333.
FRI: preopening stock index futures plunged to daily limit; which halts trading; Vix hit an all time high 89.
MON: 18 regional U.S. banks, including SunTrust & Capital One accepted $35 billion in government cash.
TUE: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index Yoy -16.6%, the fasted pace ever. Consumer confidence at an all time low.
The Fed bought $60 billion of frozen long term commercial paper... freeing up the money to be placed in other assets. The market surged 889 pts.
WEN: The Fed provides a $120 billion bailout to 4 other central banks & cuts 50bps to 1%. Durable orders ex transport -1.1%; ex defense capital goods -1.4%.
10/13: Whats next? Officially Negative GDP... Today, GDP-Adv. Q3 GDP -0.3% vs +2.8%.
Consumer spending -3.1%; Initial Claims unchanged at 479K.
Frisco Fed Head Yellen: recent economic data is deeply worrisome and the economy is likely to...
contract significantly in Q4... the impact of credit conditions has outpaced the Fed's moves to lower rates.
Double triple digit gains on GDP that shrunk less than expected? "Better" is not in sight and years away...
How bad? BOE Financial Market Liquidity Gauge, at a 17 yr low... Volvo Q3 2007 orders 41,970...
Q3 2008 orders 155. Thats no typo at -99.63% and capesize shipping rates are down 90% from a year ago.
Whats driving the market up? In 3 days, the Fed has bought $165 billion in CP....
cutting to zero will solve NOTHING, its another house of cards, sell into "strength", applies in spades.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
All UP 3%+ Bonds down 10 yr +11bps 3.96. $ up vs 1.2883 & down vs 98.895y, WTI -4% $65.59, gold -2% $739.6; TED Spread down -3bps 2.81%; Libor -23bps 3.19
SP500 922, gap up 939, dip to 928, rise to 963, fade to 954. NDX 1302, gap up 1333, dip to 1301, rise to 1344, fade to 1333.
FRI: preopening stock index futures plunged to daily limit; which halts trading; Vix hit an all time high 89.
MON: 18 regional U.S. banks, including SunTrust & Capital One accepted $35 billion in government cash.
TUE: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index Yoy -16.6%, the fasted pace ever. Consumer confidence at an all time low.
The Fed bought $60 billion of frozen long term commercial paper... freeing up the money to be placed in other assets. The market surged 889 pts.
WEN: The Fed provides a $120 billion bailout to 4 other central banks & cuts 50bps to 1%. Durable orders ex transport -1.1%; ex defense capital goods -1.4%.
10/13: Whats next? Officially Negative GDP... Today, GDP-Adv. Q3 GDP -0.3% vs +2.8%.
Consumer spending -3.1%; Initial Claims unchanged at 479K.
Frisco Fed Head Yellen: recent economic data is deeply worrisome and the economy is likely to...
contract significantly in Q4... the impact of credit conditions has outpaced the Fed's moves to lower rates.
Double triple digit gains on GDP that shrunk less than expected? "Better" is not in sight and years away...
How bad? BOE Financial Market Liquidity Gauge, at a 17 yr low... Volvo Q3 2007 orders 41,970...
Q3 2008 orders 155. Thats no typo at -99.63% and capesize shipping rates are down 90% from a year ago.
Whats driving the market up? In 3 days, the Fed has bought $165 billion in CP....
cutting to zero will solve NOTHING, its another house of cards, sell into "strength", applies in spades.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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