The Theorem Of Greater Fools
Over at a financial forum...
P - "Oil is not racing back to $50 because $50 is not the mid-point on oil – it's a top and oil should NEVER have been anywhere close to $100 per barrel and that bubble has long since burst... Who cares? Only the people selling water to suckers... most people think oil pricing is a function of supply and demand and long-term it is, but short-term it's a function of sentiment and manipulation. Yes, trading on the NYMEX is a complete and utter fraud BUT knowing it's a fraud helps up make a lot of money."
Spot on, completely manipulated and contrived. I have Nattered about the Theorem of Greater Fools since 2005, as during the 2008 price "peak", the number of deliverable futures contracts on some oil grades (BRENT) were 92X the actual physical production.
In the year 1990, Leon Hess stated at a hearing held by the U.S. Senate Committeee on Governmental Affairs: "I'm an old man, but I'd bet my life that if the Merc [New York Mercantile Exchange] was not in operation there would be ample oil and reasonable prices all over the world, without this volatility."
P commented at SA in May 2015 on then 400M fake oil orders and we left him a love letter, straight from our heart regarding speculation: "When you turn your own backyard into a major source of wealth, that's when the trouble starts."
As for leverage, always prudent to look at the ratio of OI open interest from COMMERCIAL contracts i.e. leveraged hedges the OIL COMPANIES and SUPPLIERS have.
Bottom line, with all the market manipulations and supply/demand canards, true price discovery in a contrived market, where Adam Smith's "free hand" has been severed off, is somewhat impossible.
Oil probably has more downside and should eventually stabilize around $35-$45 which would more than support our deep shale producers and continue to make life a living hell for OPEC and the other oil barons. Out.
For further edification, here, here and here to start.
P - "Oil is not racing back to $50 because $50 is not the mid-point on oil – it's a top and oil should NEVER have been anywhere close to $100 per barrel and that bubble has long since burst... Who cares? Only the people selling water to suckers... most people think oil pricing is a function of supply and demand and long-term it is, but short-term it's a function of sentiment and manipulation. Yes, trading on the NYMEX is a complete and utter fraud BUT knowing it's a fraud helps up make a lot of money."
Spot on, completely manipulated and contrived. I have Nattered about the Theorem of Greater Fools since 2005, as during the 2008 price "peak", the number of deliverable futures contracts on some oil grades (BRENT) were 92X the actual physical production.
In the year 1990, Leon Hess stated at a hearing held by the U.S. Senate Committeee on Governmental Affairs: "I'm an old man, but I'd bet my life that if the Merc [New York Mercantile Exchange] was not in operation there would be ample oil and reasonable prices all over the world, without this volatility."
P commented at SA in May 2015 on then 400M fake oil orders and we left him a love letter, straight from our heart regarding speculation: "When you turn your own backyard into a major source of wealth, that's when the trouble starts."
As for leverage, always prudent to look at the ratio of OI open interest from COMMERCIAL contracts i.e. leveraged hedges the OIL COMPANIES and SUPPLIERS have.
Bottom line, with all the market manipulations and supply/demand canards, true price discovery in a contrived market, where Adam Smith's "free hand" has been severed off, is somewhat impossible.
Oil probably has more downside and should eventually stabilize around $35-$45 which would more than support our deep shale producers and continue to make life a living hell for OPEC and the other oil barons. Out.
For further edification, here, here and here to start.
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