2016 UEFA Euro Cup - Semifinals
In the qualifying round we picked 14 of 16 correctly. In the round of 16 we picked 6 of 8 correctly. In the quarterfinals we came crashing back to earth, picking 2 of 4 correctly.
In a snoozer, Portugal fell behind, yet crawled past Poland (1-1, 5-3 PK's). In a delightful game, Wales fell behind, yet demolished Belgium 3-1. In an offensive display, France hammered the nets to a 4-0 halftime lead, finishing Iceland's magic run 5-2.
Meanwhile in another snoozer, until the shoot out... Germany scored a regular goal against the Italian 1st team while Boateng's flailing fancy hands, resulted in an Italian PK goal, almost giving it all away. Italy had several chances to score on German defensive breakdowns, conservative play could not manage a goal from the pitch. Germany was more active, yet, for 120' both teams seemingly picked this night to have their worst game, while looking disturbingly content to play to a shootout, which comically went like this:
Insigne initials it! Italy 1-0
Kroos kracks it in! Germany 1-1
Zaza does a jitterbug then zips a field goal? Wrong sport. Germany 1-1
Muller muffs it? He can't buy a Euro cup goal. Buffon saves it. Germany 1-1
Barzagli banks it in! Italy 2-1
Ozil goes out right post-al? Italy 2-1
Now if your keeping track, after 3 rounds, there have been 3 goals in 6 attempts. Yet, all Italy have to do is make the next two attempts to lock this up. Simple? Guess again.
Pelles peters out like a nonna in a wheelchair, wide left at 5km/h? Italy 2-1
Draxler doinks it to tie. Germany 2-2
Now its sudden death.
Bonucci (scored the PK in regulation) bails out? Neuer saves. Germany 2-2
Schweinsteiger smashes it over the bar, saving Italy? Germany 2-2
Giaccherini jacks it in. Italy 3-2
Hummels humms one in. Germany 3-3
Parolo parks it. Italy 4-3
Kimmich kicks it. Germany 4-4
DeSciglio dishevels it under the bar. Italy 5-4
Boateng bangs it home. Germany 5-5
Darmian deaks it? Neuer saves it. Germany 5-5
Hector hammers it around Troy and it's mercifully over. Germany 6-5
You go first, no you go, no, no, I insist, no really you first... and so went a game where seemingly, neither side really wanted to win.
18 penalty kicks, 11 of 18 = 61%; Germany 6 for 9 = 66%; Italy 5 for 9 = 55% from the charity line. This horrendous display of charity line ineptitude reminds me of Wilt Chamberlain's lifetime free throw percentage, 3rd worst in NBA history at 51.1%. On to the semi's...
Outplayed by both Croatia and Poland, 3rd place Portugal have exceeded expectations by arriving in the semis. The disappointment is they have arrived without winning a single fixture out of five, in regulation. Midfielder Carvalho out on suspension. Defender Pepe doubtful due to injury. Only two goals in 13 major knockout games? Has never scored a goal on 41 career direct free kicks in major fixtures? Alex, what is Ronaldo? Or where's Ronaldo? He was last seen missing a penalty kick in qualifying. If Portugal are to advance, they must refind their form and Ronaldo must show up against a lively and pesky Welsh side.
Where Ronaldo has been AWOL in major fixtures, Bale (2 for 5 on direct free kicks in Euro 16) and Ramsey (assisted/scored 5 of the last 8 Welsh goals) have been sterling. Being the only remaining team to have scored in every match, Wales are a pleasure to watch and on a roll. Midfielder Ramsey and defender Davies are out on suspension and we cannot understate Ramsey's loss. Outside of a friendly, these teams have never met in a competitive match. Whereas the resilient Portuguese have somewhat snuck into these Semi's, Wales have most definitely not, having scored 10 goals (host France leads Euro 16 with 11).
Other than Italy's PK, no one has scored from the pitch on the German backline. What will a fortified French attack do? France have not scored a competitive goal vs Germany since 1982. Since that year, Germany are six for six in shoot outs, but there is a caveat or curse, see below. Forward Gomez and midfielder Khedira ruled out, midfielder Schweinsteiger and defender Howedes doubtful, all due to injury. Defender Hummels out on suspension. The defending world champions have looked lackluster, struggled to beat punchless Italy and come into this match vs the host nation, hobbled. If Germany play the same conservative style against the host nation, they will exit Euro 16.
Pression? quelle pression? The 800 pound gorilla for the host nation? In competitive fixtures, France are 1-3-0 vs Germany. The lone French win 1958 WC: 6-3, losses coming in WC82 (epic 3-3 in OT, then PK), 86 (2-0) and 2014 (1-0). France are at home, have a bone to pick, and are on a HUGE roll. The 2nd half vs Ireland (down 1-nil) and 90 minutes vs Iceland? Alex, what has been nothing short of a devastating 135 minute offensive display by the host nation France. Can French speed victimize a stout German defense? When the German backfield breaks down, and it does, unlike the Azzurri, Les Bleus could make Die Mannschaft, les Misérables. In their last 17 major tournament games played at home, France are 15-0-2 and have won three titles. Yes, after Germany's non performance we are off that horse, midstream.
Below our projected winners in bold with odds payout in parentheses for: match result at the end of REGULATION; and current odds to win the tournament.
3F - Portugal (2.25) (4.25)
DRAW (3.1)
1B - Wales (4.2) (9.5)
1C - Germany (3.05) (2.85)
DRAW (3.03)
1A - France (2.8) (2.65)
We seemingly go out on a limb with underdog Wales. So far 22 of 28 correct for 78.5% accuracy. And for those who are as huge a shootout fan as I am, NOT. Portugal and Germany advanced by winning shootouts. If either or both wish to advance, they better not play for a shootout. Why?
FYI, since the advent of the shootout in international tournaments, only ONE team has won back to back shootout games in a tournament, Argentina 1990 WC (IMHO they knew they could not win on the pitch and blatantly played for shootouts in every single elimination match including the final.) Since that stain on the sport, the soccer gods have placed a curse. All other teams which have won a shootout, have lost their ensuing shootout in that tournament. TBD and more to come.
In a snoozer, Portugal fell behind, yet crawled past Poland (1-1, 5-3 PK's). In a delightful game, Wales fell behind, yet demolished Belgium 3-1. In an offensive display, France hammered the nets to a 4-0 halftime lead, finishing Iceland's magic run 5-2.
Meanwhile in another snoozer, until the shoot out... Germany scored a regular goal against the Italian 1st team while Boateng's flailing fancy hands, resulted in an Italian PK goal, almost giving it all away. Italy had several chances to score on German defensive breakdowns, conservative play could not manage a goal from the pitch. Germany was more active, yet, for 120' both teams seemingly picked this night to have their worst game, while looking disturbingly content to play to a shootout, which comically went like this:
Insigne initials it! Italy 1-0
Kroos kracks it in! Germany 1-1
Zaza does a jitterbug then zips a field goal? Wrong sport. Germany 1-1
Muller muffs it? He can't buy a Euro cup goal. Buffon saves it. Germany 1-1
Barzagli banks it in! Italy 2-1
Ozil goes out right post-al? Italy 2-1
Now if your keeping track, after 3 rounds, there have been 3 goals in 6 attempts. Yet, all Italy have to do is make the next two attempts to lock this up. Simple? Guess again.
Pelles peters out like a nonna in a wheelchair, wide left at 5km/h? Italy 2-1
Draxler doinks it to tie. Germany 2-2
Now its sudden death.
Bonucci (scored the PK in regulation) bails out? Neuer saves. Germany 2-2
Schweinsteiger smashes it over the bar, saving Italy? Germany 2-2
Giaccherini jacks it in. Italy 3-2
Hummels humms one in. Germany 3-3
Parolo parks it. Italy 4-3
Kimmich kicks it. Germany 4-4
DeSciglio dishevels it under the bar. Italy 5-4
Boateng bangs it home. Germany 5-5
Darmian deaks it? Neuer saves it. Germany 5-5
Hector hammers it around Troy and it's mercifully over. Germany 6-5
You go first, no you go, no, no, I insist, no really you first... and so went a game where seemingly, neither side really wanted to win.
18 penalty kicks, 11 of 18 = 61%; Germany 6 for 9 = 66%; Italy 5 for 9 = 55% from the charity line. This horrendous display of charity line ineptitude reminds me of Wilt Chamberlain's lifetime free throw percentage, 3rd worst in NBA history at 51.1%. On to the semi's...
Outplayed by both Croatia and Poland, 3rd place Portugal have exceeded expectations by arriving in the semis. The disappointment is they have arrived without winning a single fixture out of five, in regulation. Midfielder Carvalho out on suspension. Defender Pepe doubtful due to injury. Only two goals in 13 major knockout games? Has never scored a goal on 41 career direct free kicks in major fixtures? Alex, what is Ronaldo? Or where's Ronaldo? He was last seen missing a penalty kick in qualifying. If Portugal are to advance, they must refind their form and Ronaldo must show up against a lively and pesky Welsh side.
Where Ronaldo has been AWOL in major fixtures, Bale (2 for 5 on direct free kicks in Euro 16) and Ramsey (assisted/scored 5 of the last 8 Welsh goals) have been sterling. Being the only remaining team to have scored in every match, Wales are a pleasure to watch and on a roll. Midfielder Ramsey and defender Davies are out on suspension and we cannot understate Ramsey's loss. Outside of a friendly, these teams have never met in a competitive match. Whereas the resilient Portuguese have somewhat snuck into these Semi's, Wales have most definitely not, having scored 10 goals (host France leads Euro 16 with 11).
Other than Italy's PK, no one has scored from the pitch on the German backline. What will a fortified French attack do? France have not scored a competitive goal vs Germany since 1982. Since that year, Germany are six for six in shoot outs, but there is a caveat or curse, see below. Forward Gomez and midfielder Khedira ruled out, midfielder Schweinsteiger and defender Howedes doubtful, all due to injury. Defender Hummels out on suspension. The defending world champions have looked lackluster, struggled to beat punchless Italy and come into this match vs the host nation, hobbled. If Germany play the same conservative style against the host nation, they will exit Euro 16.
Pression? quelle pression? The 800 pound gorilla for the host nation? In competitive fixtures, France are 1-3-0 vs Germany. The lone French win 1958 WC: 6-3, losses coming in WC82 (epic 3-3 in OT, then PK), 86 (2-0) and 2014 (1-0). France are at home, have a bone to pick, and are on a HUGE roll. The 2nd half vs Ireland (down 1-nil) and 90 minutes vs Iceland? Alex, what has been nothing short of a devastating 135 minute offensive display by the host nation France. Can French speed victimize a stout German defense? When the German backfield breaks down, and it does, unlike the Azzurri, Les Bleus could make Die Mannschaft, les Misérables. In their last 17 major tournament games played at home, France are 15-0-2 and have won three titles. Yes, after Germany's non performance we are off that horse, midstream.
Below our projected winners in bold with odds payout in parentheses for: match result at the end of REGULATION; and current odds to win the tournament.
3F - Portugal (2.25) (4.25)
DRAW (3.1)
1B - Wales (4.2) (9.5)
1C - Germany (3.05) (2.85)
DRAW (3.03)
1A - France (2.8) (2.65)
We seemingly go out on a limb with underdog Wales. So far 22 of 28 correct for 78.5% accuracy. And for those who are as huge a shootout fan as I am, NOT. Portugal and Germany advanced by winning shootouts. If either or both wish to advance, they better not play for a shootout. Why?
FYI, since the advent of the shootout in international tournaments, only ONE team has won back to back shootout games in a tournament, Argentina 1990 WC (IMHO they knew they could not win on the pitch and blatantly played for shootouts in every single elimination match including the final.) Since that stain on the sport, the soccer gods have placed a curse. All other teams which have won a shootout, have lost their ensuing shootout in that tournament. TBD and more to come.
Comments