Market Soapbox 08/12/05

Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10500 ; SP500 1210 ; Nasdaq 2100; NDX 1535

European & Asian markets down. Dollar split vs. Yen/Euro , commodities down, oil, bonds & gold up. Today's Soohey Pig Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.

Last night, after the bell, Dell matched some analysts Q2 forecasts but missed on revenue and issued downside Q3 revenue guidance. Shares of Dell were beaten down afterhours 7.5% and today 7.9%.

Yesterdays rally was helped by short covering, today a large gap down on the NASDAQ and tech selloff. Todays market internals were horrific, a broadbased consolidation day with AUTHORITY on lighter volume.

A sea of red with few safe havens as the RUT, MID, SOX and NASDAQ were beat down like conga drums and the XAU & XOI were in the red most of the day, but finished up.

The June Trade Deficit widened to $58.8 bln from $55.3 bln in May, exceeding expectations of $57.2 bln but still below Feb.'s record $61.0 bln figure. The increase is due to rising oil costs.

A 5th consecutive record high in crude oil futures @ $66.90, the largest weekly gain (7%) in two months.

Benchmark yields closed at low levels not seen since July. The 10-year note, up all day finished up 18 ticks to yield 4.23%.

The University of Michigan index of consumer confidence, fell to 92.7, below expectations of 96.5 and a July reading of 96.5.

As stated yesterday, the market COULD bounce over the next 8-9 trading days and make a final attempt at a new YTD high. Today's consolidation could set the foundation, or break it.

We will watch the internals and action closely, around Aug 23 we should know where its heading for September. Next week Soapbox will be scarce as activity in the Basque area demands our attention.

We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

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