Vaccine Production Problems - H5N1 Captain Trips?
Production capability and budget?
In 1994, there were five injectable influenza vaccine manufacturers: Wyeth, Evans (now part of Chiron), Connaught (now part of Aventis), Parke Davis and Lederle; today there are two - Aventis and Chiron. Chirons production line problems are well documented.
There is a lack of global vaccine production capability. Influenza viruses are grown in chicken eggs, and the industry has difficulty obtaining enough of them to produce the standard influenza shots each year.
That is among the reasons the world's vaccine industry can produce only an estimated 450 million doses of standard influenza vaccine for the human strains. However, todays cell based production capabilities may take up some of the slack of the older egg based methods.
Unfortunately these technolgies have not received enough funding in the recent past as we have severely skewed priorities these days. For example,this years proposed flu budget got boosted to $283 Million, the war in Iraq costs $600 Million A DAY.
Titration?
According to testing reports standard dosage is 15mcg. However, the strongest response was with two shots of the largest dose of the vaccine, 90mcg, higher than many experts had expected.
Therefore, the required MCG's to reach 40 titers, the minimum definition of effective protection against H5N1 = 180 mcg, and a third administration of 90 mcg (bringing the total to 270 mcg) is being considered, NOT 15 mcg.
Even if two shots of 45 mcg (total 90 mcg) were used for the masses, this means the government "stockpile" of 2 Million 15 mcg doses on hand are actually 333,333 90 mcg doses. The 20 Million 15 mcg doses on order will actually 3.3 Million 90 mcg doses.
Virus Mutation?
Even with all the work on a vaccine, the A(H5N1) virus could further mutate. If so, whether the new vaccine would still be effective, only partly effective or worthless depends in part on how a mutation affected the virus's ability to inflict damage.
Even with a working vaccine, ramp up time for additional production capacity would take several years. In any event we are woefully understocked and cannot under any circumstances produce enough of a efficacious vaccine in a timely fashion.
In 1994, there were five injectable influenza vaccine manufacturers: Wyeth, Evans (now part of Chiron), Connaught (now part of Aventis), Parke Davis and Lederle; today there are two - Aventis and Chiron. Chirons production line problems are well documented.
There is a lack of global vaccine production capability. Influenza viruses are grown in chicken eggs, and the industry has difficulty obtaining enough of them to produce the standard influenza shots each year.
That is among the reasons the world's vaccine industry can produce only an estimated 450 million doses of standard influenza vaccine for the human strains. However, todays cell based production capabilities may take up some of the slack of the older egg based methods.
Unfortunately these technolgies have not received enough funding in the recent past as we have severely skewed priorities these days. For example,this years proposed flu budget got boosted to $283 Million, the war in Iraq costs $600 Million A DAY.
Titration?
According to testing reports standard dosage is 15mcg. However, the strongest response was with two shots of the largest dose of the vaccine, 90mcg, higher than many experts had expected.
Therefore, the required MCG's to reach 40 titers, the minimum definition of effective protection against H5N1 = 180 mcg, and a third administration of 90 mcg (bringing the total to 270 mcg) is being considered, NOT 15 mcg.
Even if two shots of 45 mcg (total 90 mcg) were used for the masses, this means the government "stockpile" of 2 Million 15 mcg doses on hand are actually 333,333 90 mcg doses. The 20 Million 15 mcg doses on order will actually 3.3 Million 90 mcg doses.
Virus Mutation?
Even with all the work on a vaccine, the A(H5N1) virus could further mutate. If so, whether the new vaccine would still be effective, only partly effective or worthless depends in part on how a mutation affected the virus's ability to inflict damage.
Even with a working vaccine, ramp up time for additional production capacity would take several years. In any event we are woefully understocked and cannot under any circumstances produce enough of a efficacious vaccine in a timely fashion.
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