Market Soapbox 10/13/05
Resistance: DJIA 10250; SP500 1200; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
European & Asian markets down. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro, XAU & gold down, XOI & oil down, commodities down & bonds down. Contra trend: None.
3 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. 2 weeks ago, DJIA +148, up and down all week, lacking leadership & conviction. Last week, a harder fall down another step DJIA -281.
Mon, another down day with pathetic internals DJIA -54. Tues, a split tape day DJIA +14; Naz -17. Wen, another can of whup ass DJIA +53 early closing -36; Naz - 24. This week DJIA -76, over the last 3 weeks DJIA -479; not counting today.
Today, despite a late day rally, DJIA low 10157 -60 early, bounced back to 10220 flat line. The market got beat senseless on interest rate fears. DJTA -1.6%, DJUA -3%, XOI - 3.15% & XAU -2.25% . RUT & MID beat down to a lesser degree.
Gold Bugs, Energy, Natural Gas, Oil, Transports, Utilities, & Commodities sectors stuck like bleeding pigs. Biotech, Pharma, Semis, Healthcare, Reits up.
Bond prices got whomped with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.47%. The 5 & 10 year gap is 14 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.69, the 10 & 30 gap is 22 basis points. The 2 and 5 year gap is 8 basis points.
Dollar at a 2 year high against the Yen 114.92; vs Euro 1.194; we said 115 yen & under 1.20 Euro. XAU @ 106.5, we said 100 before the end of the year; we now think 100 before the end of the month is possible.
The EIA reported a 1.02M barrel build in crude supplies vs. est. +2.0M barrels, a 2.65M decline in gasoline inventory vs. est. -2.0M, and a 3.41M barrel drop in distillates vs. est. -2.3M. The good news: Refineries operated at 74.9% of their operable capacity last week vs. the 74.4% consensus.
In Aug the deficit widened to -$59.5B up from the -$58B in July. Import prices checked in: Ex-ag, export prices +1.1%; ex-oil, import prices +1.2%. The bottom line: U.S. import prices rose 2.3% in September, led by a 7.3% jump in petroleum prices, that's the biggest rise in import prices in almost 15 years. Economists were expecting a rise of just 1%. If oil pulled back to $35 the trade deficit would narrow big time.
If you think the Fed is pausing in the near term, guess again. The 10 year bond hit 4.50 breifly today, The average 30 year mortgage is now over 6%, more to come, god help anyone with an ARM. We will see Fed Funds at 4.50 in January 2006.
The market is getting beat senseless. The internal damage being done is not reflected in the point drop on the indexes. To point, as of 3 weeks ago Refiners YTD +95%; today YTD +65%. Today alone, 38% of the energy sector issues were down more than 5%.
The Stoxx 600, which covers the major exchanges of 17 European countries, has lost 3% this quarter, its worst ever fourth quarter start and biggest slide since 1987. (Anyone remember what happened that year in October?) This mirrors the US markets Q4 start, which has been the worst in 10 years (1995).
We have shattered support and continue to sink, albeit not on higher volume. Maybe this ends at DJIA 10000 and SP500 1150, just a guess.
Even though I see no reason for a year end rally, maybe at some point the institutional buyers and programmed trading will kick in to try and save the day. My guess is the elephants don't head for the exits until after they stage a year end rally.
They need a strong year end finish to collect those bonuses and make the buy & hold crowd happy, and the hedge funds dont get paid unless they produce. You might see alot of short covering and a slow grind up with little conviction or leadership.
Fresh off the ticker - Dash, Dash, Dot, Dash, Stop - The SOX bucked the trend today +2.15%, keep your eyes peeled on the Semis, look for followthrough as they usually indicate a change in market direction up or down ahead of the other indices by 5 or 6 days. But the SOX is also known for false positives.
Keep it tween the ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
European & Asian markets down. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro, XAU & gold down, XOI & oil down, commodities down & bonds down. Contra trend: None.
3 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. 2 weeks ago, DJIA +148, up and down all week, lacking leadership & conviction. Last week, a harder fall down another step DJIA -281.
Mon, another down day with pathetic internals DJIA -54. Tues, a split tape day DJIA +14; Naz -17. Wen, another can of whup ass DJIA +53 early closing -36; Naz - 24. This week DJIA -76, over the last 3 weeks DJIA -479; not counting today.
Today, despite a late day rally, DJIA low 10157 -60 early, bounced back to 10220 flat line. The market got beat senseless on interest rate fears. DJTA -1.6%, DJUA -3%, XOI - 3.15% & XAU -2.25% . RUT & MID beat down to a lesser degree.
Gold Bugs, Energy, Natural Gas, Oil, Transports, Utilities, & Commodities sectors stuck like bleeding pigs. Biotech, Pharma, Semis, Healthcare, Reits up.
Bond prices got whomped with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.47%. The 5 & 10 year gap is 14 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.69, the 10 & 30 gap is 22 basis points. The 2 and 5 year gap is 8 basis points.
Dollar at a 2 year high against the Yen 114.92; vs Euro 1.194; we said 115 yen & under 1.20 Euro. XAU @ 106.5, we said 100 before the end of the year; we now think 100 before the end of the month is possible.
The EIA reported a 1.02M barrel build in crude supplies vs. est. +2.0M barrels, a 2.65M decline in gasoline inventory vs. est. -2.0M, and a 3.41M barrel drop in distillates vs. est. -2.3M. The good news: Refineries operated at 74.9% of their operable capacity last week vs. the 74.4% consensus.
In Aug the deficit widened to -$59.5B up from the -$58B in July. Import prices checked in: Ex-ag, export prices +1.1%; ex-oil, import prices +1.2%. The bottom line: U.S. import prices rose 2.3% in September, led by a 7.3% jump in petroleum prices, that's the biggest rise in import prices in almost 15 years. Economists were expecting a rise of just 1%. If oil pulled back to $35 the trade deficit would narrow big time.
If you think the Fed is pausing in the near term, guess again. The 10 year bond hit 4.50 breifly today, The average 30 year mortgage is now over 6%, more to come, god help anyone with an ARM. We will see Fed Funds at 4.50 in January 2006.
The market is getting beat senseless. The internal damage being done is not reflected in the point drop on the indexes. To point, as of 3 weeks ago Refiners YTD +95%; today YTD +65%. Today alone, 38% of the energy sector issues were down more than 5%.
The Stoxx 600, which covers the major exchanges of 17 European countries, has lost 3% this quarter, its worst ever fourth quarter start and biggest slide since 1987. (Anyone remember what happened that year in October?) This mirrors the US markets Q4 start, which has been the worst in 10 years (1995).
We have shattered support and continue to sink, albeit not on higher volume. Maybe this ends at DJIA 10000 and SP500 1150, just a guess.
Even though I see no reason for a year end rally, maybe at some point the institutional buyers and programmed trading will kick in to try and save the day. My guess is the elephants don't head for the exits until after they stage a year end rally.
They need a strong year end finish to collect those bonuses and make the buy & hold crowd happy, and the hedge funds dont get paid unless they produce. You might see alot of short covering and a slow grind up with little conviction or leadership.
Fresh off the ticker - Dash, Dash, Dot, Dash, Stop - The SOX bucked the trend today +2.15%, keep your eyes peeled on the Semis, look for followthrough as they usually indicate a change in market direction up or down ahead of the other indices by 5 or 6 days. But the SOX is also known for false positives.
Keep it tween the ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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