Market Soapbox 10/14/05 UPDATED
Resistance: DJIA 10250; SP500 1200; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
Weekend Update: In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, CPI surged at the fastest pace in more than 25 years in September, +1.2% vs. est +0.9%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, +0.1% vs. est. +0.2%.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to the managing director at Epiphany Equity Research who was quoted on today's CPI report. "Excluding food and energy, the figures are pretty tame which means the recent inflationary worries are probably not as big a concern as they were."
Alrighty then Mr. Managing Director, I guess if I lived in the "core" netherworld, where energy and food costs are excluded and inflation is "tame", I could stop worrying about heating my house, or being concerned about the cost of driving my car and eating. Can you please direct me to the nearest "core" community, I would like to live there, and so would alot of other people.
Unfortunately, for us the "core" is hypothetical and does not exist. Therefore its relevance and applicability to everyday life in the real world somehow escapes me. I never was much the type for all these fancy words and "lets pretend" models.
I'm more of a Joe Friday kinda guy, "Just the Facts, Ma'am". WTF??? is this guy smoking?? This demonstrates how far detached from reality some of these bean counting types are. Right, got it, thanks! SOOHEY PIG PIG!!!
European markets up & Asian markets down. Dollar down vs. Yen & Euro, XAU & gold down, XOI & oil down -2%, commodities down & bonds down. Contra trend: None.
3 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. 2 weeks ago, DJIA +148, up and down all week, lacking leadership & conviction. Last week, a harder fall down another step DJIA -281.
This week, Mon, another down day with pathetic internals DJIA -54. Tues, a split tape day DJIA +14; Naz -17. Wen, a 180; DJIA +53 early, closing DJIA -36; Naz - 24. Thurs, bouncy 10157 -60 early, bounced back to 10216 flatline Naz +10.
Today, gap to crap with iffy internals, then a bounce with improved internals. Out the gate with a bang DJIA +46, then a loud hissing pffffttt and down, then a late day rally DJIA +70. This week DJIA -6, over the last 3 weeks DJIA -409.
DJTA, DJUA, MID & RUT up nicely, XAU & SOX down, the market has no true leadership or conviction. The pullback in energy futures continues with crude -2% @ 61.80.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Commodities & Semis sectors beat down like conga drums. Airlines BIG, Biotech, Natural Gas, Broadband, Wireless, Internet Infrastructure, Healthcare, Tobacco, Financial Services, Real Estate, Reits & Banking up. YTD Regional Banks -10%
Bond prices down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.50%. The 5 & 10 year gap is 15 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.72, the 10 & 30 gap is 22 basis points. The 2 and 5 year gap is 8 basis points.
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and a strike at Boeing contributed to a 1.3% drop in industrial production in September. It was the largest monthly drop since 1982. Capacity utilization, meanwhile, fell to 78.6 in September from a revised 79.8 in August.
Mining output slumped 9.1%, driven by drop-offs in oil and gas extraction in the Gulf of Mexico. Business equipment production fell 3.7% and materials fell 2.1%. Only output of construction supplies and consumer goods rose in September, reflecting rebuilding efforts due to Katrina & Rita. In a mad rush before & after the hurricanes, businesses and private citizens stuffed their shelves with inputs in fear of inpending shortages.
Business inventories +0.4% in Aug.est. +0.2%. Manufacturing output dropped 0.5%. Production of motor vehicles and parts rose 2.2% in September after gaining 3.1% in August. Bet you wouldn't think that looking at Delphi's latest results.....BK. Total Retail sales Sept. +0.2% vs. est 0.5%, up vs. Aug -2.1%. Ex-auto, +1.1% vs. est. 0.8% up vs. Aug. 1.0%
Yesterday, the 3rd worst ever trade deficit, and the biggest rise in import prices in 15 years. Today, the biggest rise in CPI in 25 years and the largest drop in Industrial Production since 1982. If you think the Fed is pausing in the near term, guess again. Can you say Stagflation? Can you say 4.50% Fed Funds in January? Can you say 6.75% on a 30 year Mortgage Q1 2006? Can you say lots of ARM defaults? I can.
From yesterday: "The SOX bucked the trend today +2.15%, keep your eyes peeled on the Semis, look for followthrough as they usually indicate a change in market direction up or down ahead of the other indices by 5 or 6 days. But they are known for false positives." Today early SOX -.82%, is that a loud hissing sound I hear.... maybe not.
Refer to today's sector buying patterns, notice which sectors were up, keep your eyes peeled on which sectors are getting buyers attention, this is a "tell" of possible transition. Today's action tell's me that someone is perceiving a bottom and is buying on the "dip". The market needs 3 consecutive up days like today to start healing, until then, we are going nowhere or down.
This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT. Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong. Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
Weekend Update: In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, CPI surged at the fastest pace in more than 25 years in September, +1.2% vs. est +0.9%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, +0.1% vs. est. +0.2%.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to the managing director at Epiphany Equity Research who was quoted on today's CPI report. "Excluding food and energy, the figures are pretty tame which means the recent inflationary worries are probably not as big a concern as they were."
Alrighty then Mr. Managing Director, I guess if I lived in the "core" netherworld, where energy and food costs are excluded and inflation is "tame", I could stop worrying about heating my house, or being concerned about the cost of driving my car and eating. Can you please direct me to the nearest "core" community, I would like to live there, and so would alot of other people.
Unfortunately, for us the "core" is hypothetical and does not exist. Therefore its relevance and applicability to everyday life in the real world somehow escapes me. I never was much the type for all these fancy words and "lets pretend" models.
I'm more of a Joe Friday kinda guy, "Just the Facts, Ma'am". WTF??? is this guy smoking?? This demonstrates how far detached from reality some of these bean counting types are. Right, got it, thanks! SOOHEY PIG PIG!!!
European markets up & Asian markets down. Dollar down vs. Yen & Euro, XAU & gold down, XOI & oil down -2%, commodities down & bonds down. Contra trend: None.
3 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. 2 weeks ago, DJIA +148, up and down all week, lacking leadership & conviction. Last week, a harder fall down another step DJIA -281.
This week, Mon, another down day with pathetic internals DJIA -54. Tues, a split tape day DJIA +14; Naz -17. Wen, a 180; DJIA +53 early, closing DJIA -36; Naz - 24. Thurs, bouncy 10157 -60 early, bounced back to 10216 flatline Naz +10.
Today, gap to crap with iffy internals, then a bounce with improved internals. Out the gate with a bang DJIA +46, then a loud hissing pffffttt and down, then a late day rally DJIA +70. This week DJIA -6, over the last 3 weeks DJIA -409.
DJTA, DJUA, MID & RUT up nicely, XAU & SOX down, the market has no true leadership or conviction. The pullback in energy futures continues with crude -2% @ 61.80.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Commodities & Semis sectors beat down like conga drums. Airlines BIG, Biotech, Natural Gas, Broadband, Wireless, Internet Infrastructure, Healthcare, Tobacco, Financial Services, Real Estate, Reits & Banking up. YTD Regional Banks -10%
Bond prices down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.50%. The 5 & 10 year gap is 15 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.72, the 10 & 30 gap is 22 basis points. The 2 and 5 year gap is 8 basis points.
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and a strike at Boeing contributed to a 1.3% drop in industrial production in September. It was the largest monthly drop since 1982. Capacity utilization, meanwhile, fell to 78.6 in September from a revised 79.8 in August.
Mining output slumped 9.1%, driven by drop-offs in oil and gas extraction in the Gulf of Mexico. Business equipment production fell 3.7% and materials fell 2.1%. Only output of construction supplies and consumer goods rose in September, reflecting rebuilding efforts due to Katrina & Rita. In a mad rush before & after the hurricanes, businesses and private citizens stuffed their shelves with inputs in fear of inpending shortages.
Business inventories +0.4% in Aug.est. +0.2%. Manufacturing output dropped 0.5%. Production of motor vehicles and parts rose 2.2% in September after gaining 3.1% in August. Bet you wouldn't think that looking at Delphi's latest results.....BK. Total Retail sales Sept. +0.2% vs. est 0.5%, up vs. Aug -2.1%. Ex-auto, +1.1% vs. est. 0.8% up vs. Aug. 1.0%
Yesterday, the 3rd worst ever trade deficit, and the biggest rise in import prices in 15 years. Today, the biggest rise in CPI in 25 years and the largest drop in Industrial Production since 1982. If you think the Fed is pausing in the near term, guess again. Can you say Stagflation? Can you say 4.50% Fed Funds in January? Can you say 6.75% on a 30 year Mortgage Q1 2006? Can you say lots of ARM defaults? I can.
From yesterday: "The SOX bucked the trend today +2.15%, keep your eyes peeled on the Semis, look for followthrough as they usually indicate a change in market direction up or down ahead of the other indices by 5 or 6 days. But they are known for false positives." Today early SOX -.82%, is that a loud hissing sound I hear.... maybe not.
Refer to today's sector buying patterns, notice which sectors were up, keep your eyes peeled on which sectors are getting buyers attention, this is a "tell" of possible transition. Today's action tell's me that someone is perceiving a bottom and is buying on the "dip". The market needs 3 consecutive up days like today to start healing, until then, we are going nowhere or down.
This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT. Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong. Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...
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