Writing On The Wall?

Following up on Policy Is As Policy Does? and finishing up on Record Low Unemployment?  and The 4th Proxy: One Step Beyond?...
Well at least unemployment is at a 50 year low.  Not so fast Joe, or you finish outside... referring back to the chart above, the 3.6% unemployment rate = number of unemployed persons / labor force.   
Note: concomitant participation rate declining -4.1% from July 2008 66.8% to current 62.7%. It took almost 11 years for that decline. Interesting codicil: 11 years prior in July 1997, the participation rate peaked at 68.1%, so it took exactly the same amount of time to decline only -1.3%??  What gives in the last 11 years for participation to decline at a +3X rate from the prior 11 years?
Once again, not to be mistaken for Tuesday's With Morrie, it's Tuesdays With Trump (a day early even!)... 

Regardless of your political leanings, whether you're blue, red, or just fed up with politicians, the MSM parrot food, and the BS...




Above, witness those not counted in the civilian labor force as employed or unemployed. In the roughly 11 years since July 2008 at 77.5M, that number has swelled by 19M to 96.5M.  And oddly, like the participation rate, going back over the prior 11 year period, that number increased from 64.8M in July 1997 by only 12.7M.



Don’t believe those phony numbers. When you hear 4.9 and five-per-cent unemployment, the number’s probably twenty-eight, twenty-nine, as high as thirty-five—in fact, I even heard recently forty-two per cent.... That’s just a phony number to make the politicians look good. The five-per-cent figure is one of the biggest hoaxes in American modern politics.” - POTUS 45 
42% unemployment and fake news.... If anything about the unemployment number was factual, true or representative of reality, there would be no slack in the employment market.  Employers would be paying increased market rates and wage inflation would be screaming in double digits annually.  Again, que up the goon dunking the economoron Lebowski's head into the loo: WHERE'S THE F*CKIN' MONEY, SH*THEEEAAD?! 

But employers and wages are doing no such thing, and have not for decades.  One might as well say unemployment is zero.  When you make 19 Million people disappear as in non existent, in the denominator of the unemployment equation, what would one expect but a new 50 year low in "advertised" unemployment?  


This magical disappearing act would seem to be an act of BIPARTISAN econometric falsity, right Donny?  Yet, since being elected POTUS 45 now wants to take credit for the very numbers he claims to be FAKE?  Somehow, this comes to mind...




More Writing on The Wall? to come in American Graffiti? Stay tuned, no flippin.

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