COVID19: Same Bat Channel?
Black Monday Redux? On Monday, the largest DJIA % gap down since October 19, 1987, as the SP500 shed $900B while global markets lost $1.73T. Since Wednesday's closing high, global markets are down +$3.5T. Meanwhile, long term economic confidence sank to 1.81% on the 30yr, 1.337 on the 10yr, with the 30 day rising to 1.58%. Not unrelated...
Following up on the cult-ural theme presented in IBM: Fumbling In The Extreme?, Boeing: Business As Usual? and picking up where the disinformation, ignorance, crowded environments, and festive Carnival theme from COVID19: Same Bat Time? left off...
As the old joke based on some ugly truths goes...
From October 1, 2018, to May 4, 2019... CDC estimates that in the US influenza virus infection has caused 37.4 - 42.9 M symptomatic illnesses; 17.3 – 20.1 M medical visits; 531 –647 K hospitalizations; and 36,400–61,200 deaths.
US Flu Deaths... 2017: 61090; 2018: 56026; 2019: 53130; 2020? So far, 14,000 people have died and 250,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season. Nothing to do with antibiotics being handed out for decades like Chocks children's vitamins?
Not unrelated... much like vaccines prevent, but do not cure, the WHO warns against self-medicating with drugs like antibiotics which won't work against COVID19 as they only kill bacteria, not viruses. And now this...
Yesterday and Today? Along the lines of hospital outbreaks, crowded environments, transmission and "superspreader" events, one might bet their entire net worth, that you nor anyone you know were even thinking about this... YESTERDAY AND TODAY. What about it? Not the Beatle's album... Think McFly!!
A Real EPIPHANY? Aka Fat Tuesday (yesterday) which marks the final day of feasting before the Lent (fasting) season begins on Ash Wednesday (today), which starts 46 days before Easter. These annual religious and cultural celebrations following up on epiphany (pun intended) occur in 50 countries around the globe...
in almost every major city where billions participate, and millions of tourists travel to and return from globally. A dozen select global venues near major air hubs, that host Carnival between Mon, Jan 6 and Wed, Feb 26, 2020 (number attracted in millions):
Brooklyn, NY (1M); Tenerife, Spain (1M); Berlin, Germany (1M); Viareggio, Italy (1M); Nice, France (1M); Mazatlan, Mexico (1.3M); Koln, Germany (1.5M); New Orleans, LA (1.4M); Recife/Olinda, Brazil (2M); Venice, Italy (3M); Salvador de Bahia, Brazil (4M); Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (6M)
You Dance, You Pay? Anyone of aforethought with public health and safety in mind, would have cancelled the aforementioned global events no later than 02/14 when infections in mainland China jumped 50% in one day. In anticipation, tourism viz travel, service, hospitality and local economies would have suffered. Alas...
"Stand"-like Prescience? In the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, a lock down is in place in several towns, affecting about 50,000 people. Select cities across Italy declared until March 1st, all workplaces and schools shut, no public, private or religious gatherings, and cancellation of all major events, sporting included, and the final two days of Carnival Monday 24th and Fat Tuesday 25th.
Anyone Home McFly? Amid public panic supermarket shelves containing fresh, frozen, refrigerated, canned and dry goods were emptied. After business came to a stand still, city streets became eerily quiet viz ghost towns. Think McFly! Production, distribution, logistics, border closures and broken supply chains.
Something Wicked This Way Comes? At the end of the day, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates the incubation period of COVID-19 could be from 1 to 12.5 days with median estimates of 5 to 6 days. With other estimates reaching up to 24 days, we might just find out how virulent this virus IS or IS NOT by March 11 to 21st? Add festive municipal carnivals to the ever growing cult-ure bill?
In closing, it is highly likely that COVID19 does come from the same bat channel as SARS and MERS, could have been transmitted to humans via another species, and could drive one bats? With all the above submitted for your consideration, rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and the following video come to mind.
The big question is are we about to get one and how big? Today US Markets are getting a bounce, so TBD. In the meantime we can reflect upon Yesterday?
More to come in COVID 19: Secondary Infection? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended Reading:
2019 nCOV - Pleased To Meet You?
COVID19: Same Bat Time?
U.S. Dependence on Pharmaceutical Products From China - US CFR
Lancet Report 15/02/2020 - Covid 19 spread weeks before the market outbreak
Isolation and characterization of a bat SARS-like coronavirus that uses the ACE2 receptor
The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus - Botao Xiao
Hong Kong Apple Daily - [Wuhan Pneumonia] New Virus Revealed by Explosive Disease Control Center 16/02/2020
Following up on the cult-ural theme presented in IBM: Fumbling In The Extreme?, Boeing: Business As Usual? and picking up where the disinformation, ignorance, crowded environments, and festive Carnival theme from COVID19: Same Bat Time? left off...
As the old joke based on some ugly truths goes...
"I never go to hospitals, that’s where all the sick people are."Speaking of which... COVID19 tracking as of 2/26/2020, 2:03:03 PM EST; Confirmed: 81,191; Recovered: 30,281; Deaths: 2,768, now how bout some perspective on those numbers?
From October 1, 2018, to May 4, 2019... CDC estimates that in the US influenza virus infection has caused 37.4 - 42.9 M symptomatic illnesses; 17.3 – 20.1 M medical visits; 531 –647 K hospitalizations; and 36,400–61,200 deaths.
US Flu Deaths... 2017: 61090; 2018: 56026; 2019: 53130; 2020? So far, 14,000 people have died and 250,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season. Nothing to do with antibiotics being handed out for decades like Chocks children's vitamins?
Not unrelated... much like vaccines prevent, but do not cure, the WHO warns against self-medicating with drugs like antibiotics which won't work against COVID19 as they only kill bacteria, not viruses. And now this...
A Department of Commerce study that found that 97 percent of all antibiotics in the United States came from China... about 80 percent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used to make drugs in the United States are said to come from China and other countries like India... India depends on China for sourcing nearly three quarters of APIs in generic drug formulations. - U.S. Council On Foreign RelationsAdd pharmaceutical supply chains to the ever growing cult-ure bill?
Said [cannibalistic] "cult-ure" includes national security and major industry... Offshore and outsource? We can save millions? Sounds smashing. There are no coincidences, you get what you pay for and you can pay me now, or pay later...Back to the old joke... according to the CDC, about 1 in every 25 inpatients has an infection related to hospital care. One might also consider... grocery stores, shopping malls, schools, dormitories, barracks, prisons, public transit, subways, submarines, ferries, ships, buses, trains and airplanes?
Yesterday and Today? Along the lines of hospital outbreaks, crowded environments, transmission and "superspreader" events, one might bet their entire net worth, that you nor anyone you know were even thinking about this... YESTERDAY AND TODAY. What about it? Not the Beatle's album... Think McFly!!
A Real EPIPHANY? Aka Fat Tuesday (yesterday) which marks the final day of feasting before the Lent (fasting) season begins on Ash Wednesday (today), which starts 46 days before Easter. These annual religious and cultural celebrations following up on epiphany (pun intended) occur in 50 countries around the globe...
in almost every major city where billions participate, and millions of tourists travel to and return from globally. A dozen select global venues near major air hubs, that host Carnival between Mon, Jan 6 and Wed, Feb 26, 2020 (number attracted in millions):
Brooklyn, NY (1M); Tenerife, Spain (1M); Berlin, Germany (1M); Viareggio, Italy (1M); Nice, France (1M); Mazatlan, Mexico (1.3M); Koln, Germany (1.5M); New Orleans, LA (1.4M); Recife/Olinda, Brazil (2M); Venice, Italy (3M); Salvador de Bahia, Brazil (4M); Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (6M)
You Dance, You Pay? Anyone of aforethought with public health and safety in mind, would have cancelled the aforementioned global events no later than 02/14 when infections in mainland China jumped 50% in one day. In anticipation, tourism viz travel, service, hospitality and local economies would have suffered. Alas...
"it's a cult-ure, it's a mindset"... Fumbling In The Extreme?Fat Tuesday And The Band Played On? AFTER holding weekend carnival events since Jan 26th, and a non stop four day fest Feb 20-23rd, COVID19 cases in Italy surged from 3 (which included 2 Chinese tourists) on Friday 02/21 to 322 today, the most in Europe.
"Stand"-like Prescience? In the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, a lock down is in place in several towns, affecting about 50,000 people. Select cities across Italy declared until March 1st, all workplaces and schools shut, no public, private or religious gatherings, and cancellation of all major events, sporting included, and the final two days of Carnival Monday 24th and Fat Tuesday 25th.
Anyone Home McFly? Amid public panic supermarket shelves containing fresh, frozen, refrigerated, canned and dry goods were emptied. After business came to a stand still, city streets became eerily quiet viz ghost towns. Think McFly! Production, distribution, logistics, border closures and broken supply chains.
Something Wicked This Way Comes? At the end of the day, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates the incubation period of COVID-19 could be from 1 to 12.5 days with median estimates of 5 to 6 days. With other estimates reaching up to 24 days, we might just find out how virulent this virus IS or IS NOT by March 11 to 21st? Add festive municipal carnivals to the ever growing cult-ure bill?
In closing, it is highly likely that COVID19 does come from the same bat channel as SARS and MERS, could have been transmitted to humans via another species, and could drive one bats? With all the above submitted for your consideration, rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and the following video come to mind.
The big question is are we about to get one and how big? Today US Markets are getting a bounce, so TBD. In the meantime we can reflect upon Yesterday?
More to come in COVID 19: Secondary Infection? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended Reading:
2019 nCOV - Pleased To Meet You?
COVID19: Same Bat Time?
U.S. Dependence on Pharmaceutical Products From China - US CFR
Lancet Report 15/02/2020 - Covid 19 spread weeks before the market outbreak
Isolation and characterization of a bat SARS-like coronavirus that uses the ACE2 receptor
The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus - Botao Xiao
Hong Kong Apple Daily - [Wuhan Pneumonia] New Virus Revealed by Explosive Disease Control Center 16/02/2020
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