COVID 19: Secondary Infection?
A primary infection is infection that is, or can practically be viewed as, the root cause of the current health problem. In contrast, a secondary infection is a sequela or complication of a root cause. On that note...
Picking up where COVID19: Same Bat Channel? left off... We Nattered about crowded environments, transmission, potential "superspreader" events and SEASONAL INFLUENZA numbers for a reason, and unlike others it wasn't to infer that COVID19 is much ado about nothing...
Caveat, said mortality rate is based on the majority of cases thus far coming from China, and would be increased in countries with lower health standards (diet, healthcare and population health levels) and decreased for those with higher health standards. More to come.
Since we outlined a potential "Carnival" super-spreader event, confirmed cases in Europe, Italy, Japan, South Korea and Iran and its neighboring countries have all confirmed our theory by spiking. Post Carnival hangovers aside, Italy and Europe could also attribute tourism and perhaps something else?
Iran and it's neighbors, affluent traveling oil and business people? Perhaps, but all of the aforementioned locations do have something in common, and in the case of Iran they are surrounded by them - not just their neighbors, but U.S. Military Bases. Tick the MILITARY BASE BOX? More to come on South Korea and those BOXES...
Two women in Northern California, a resident in northwest Oregon, and a high school student in Washington State have all tested positive for the COVID-19 novel coronavirus despite having no known link to any other outbreak or infected person. Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. Albeit no mystery here...
The Oregon case works in a school, the Washington State case is a student in a school. The parents of a student traveled or came in contact with? Tick SCHOOL BOX? Next... the California cases are from Santa Clara and Vacaville. The former is the heart of Silicon Valley and given the nature of the business and local demographics, nobody there would ever be traveling to and from Asia, right? Tick AIRPLANE or any PUBLIC VENUE BOX?
Next... the latter is in Solano County in which another coronavirus case was confirmed on Friday, and it just happened to be someone who had been aboard the quarantined Princess Diamond cruise ship in Japan. Doh! Better yet, Vacaville is right next to Travis Air Force base which just happens to be where 180 COVID19 evacuees who recently returned from Wuhan, China completed their 14 day quarantine. Coincidence? We think not, double tick MILITARY BASE BOX, and its literally in the wind?
In the case of South Korea with proper funding and preparedness, the test capability (drive thru) and active testing (10K per day) is revealing a much higher infected population than previously thought or expected. This is what happens when one actually goes looking and has proper funding and preparedness to do so. As opposed to those who claim such along with imaginary and impossible containment.
A communist centrally planned China took draconian measures the likes of which would never fly elsewhere, see how that's working right about now? Like QE, ZIRP and NIRP, the misinformed masses usually want more of what never worked in the first place, and the definition of insanity applies.
What would draconian containment measures stop? Not the COVID19 virus, only the free movement of people, goods, services and capital as well, so let's just bring the entire world to a grinding halt? What kind of secondary viral infections could occur? Think supply chain disruptions, production shutdowns, layoffs, spending, already stagnant wages and chronic weak demand. Wonder what that will do for already overvalued assets and PRE COVID19 economic contraction? Which was already well underway, but I digress...
At the end of the day, COVID19 could do substantial damage, and yet it sadly remains a secondary viral infection. How so? It is more likely that the talking monkey panic (so far -$6 Trillion) and their [woefully late] knee jerk reactions will create more damage than the virus itself ever could. Think of the cost of lives and "Ignorance is a virus", which in this case is ironically apropos. Agent Smith might agree?
Recommended Reading:
2019 nCOV - Pleased To Meet You?
COVID19: Same Bat Time?
COVID19: Same Bat Channel?
Three New US Cases of Unknown Origin
List of US Military Bases
Silicon Valley Indicators
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan
Picking up where COVID19: Same Bat Channel? left off... We Nattered about crowded environments, transmission, potential "superspreader" events and SEASONAL INFLUENZA numbers for a reason, and unlike others it wasn't to infer that COVID19 is much ado about nothing...
"it seems to us that COVID-19 is very similar to the flu but perhaps less threatening." - From a investment and strategy consultancy which shall remain namelessTo repeat, in 2019 with a mortality rate of a mere 0.1%, the common flu caused over 53K deaths in the US and 300K to 650K globally. To date, COVID19 has a mortality rate estimate of high (Hubei) 4.0%; mid (average) 2.0%; low (rest of China) 0.7%. Translated: at the high end 40X, on average 20X, and at the low end, COVID19 is 7X, deadlier than the common flu.
Caveat, said mortality rate is based on the majority of cases thus far coming from China, and would be increased in countries with lower health standards (diet, healthcare and population health levels) and decreased for those with higher health standards. More to come.
Since we outlined a potential "Carnival" super-spreader event, confirmed cases in Europe, Italy, Japan, South Korea and Iran and its neighboring countries have all confirmed our theory by spiking. Post Carnival hangovers aside, Italy and Europe could also attribute tourism and perhaps something else?
Iran and it's neighbors, affluent traveling oil and business people? Perhaps, but all of the aforementioned locations do have something in common, and in the case of Iran they are surrounded by them - not just their neighbors, but U.S. Military Bases. Tick the MILITARY BASE BOX? More to come on South Korea and those BOXES...
Two women in Northern California, a resident in northwest Oregon, and a high school student in Washington State have all tested positive for the COVID-19 novel coronavirus despite having no known link to any other outbreak or infected person. Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. Albeit no mystery here...
The Oregon case works in a school, the Washington State case is a student in a school. The parents of a student traveled or came in contact with? Tick SCHOOL BOX? Next... the California cases are from Santa Clara and Vacaville. The former is the heart of Silicon Valley and given the nature of the business and local demographics, nobody there would ever be traveling to and from Asia, right? Tick AIRPLANE or any PUBLIC VENUE BOX?
Next... the latter is in Solano County in which another coronavirus case was confirmed on Friday, and it just happened to be someone who had been aboard the quarantined Princess Diamond cruise ship in Japan. Doh! Better yet, Vacaville is right next to Travis Air Force base which just happens to be where 180 COVID19 evacuees who recently returned from Wuhan, China completed their 14 day quarantine. Coincidence? We think not, double tick MILITARY BASE BOX, and its literally in the wind?
In the case of South Korea with proper funding and preparedness, the test capability (drive thru) and active testing (10K per day) is revealing a much higher infected population than previously thought or expected. This is what happens when one actually goes looking and has proper funding and preparedness to do so. As opposed to those who claim such along with imaginary and impossible containment.
"The obscure we see eventually. The completely obvious, it seems, takes longer." - Edward R. MurrowAs opposed to the MSM parrots and idle prattle of those who believe in the viral demagoguery, some actually know what the real problems are, which are not finding a vaccine or containment.
A communist centrally planned China took draconian measures the likes of which would never fly elsewhere, see how that's working right about now? Like QE, ZIRP and NIRP, the misinformed masses usually want more of what never worked in the first place, and the definition of insanity applies.
What would draconian containment measures stop? Not the COVID19 virus, only the free movement of people, goods, services and capital as well, so let's just bring the entire world to a grinding halt? What kind of secondary viral infections could occur? Think supply chain disruptions, production shutdowns, layoffs, spending, already stagnant wages and chronic weak demand. Wonder what that will do for already overvalued assets and PRE COVID19 economic contraction? Which was already well underway, but I digress...
"You can’t contain when our Southern border leaks." - From a consultant who shall remain namelessAlas, if only shutting the Southern U.S. border would stop a virus from entering. Although the politics of fear can always find an excuse to infringe on the free movement of people and human rights, real viruses are indiscriminate and know no borders. Unfortunately, man cannot build a wall that will contain the furthering viral pandemic of stupidity which we suffer.
At the end of the day, COVID19 could do substantial damage, and yet it sadly remains a secondary viral infection. How so? It is more likely that the talking monkey panic (so far -$6 Trillion) and their [woefully late] knee jerk reactions will create more damage than the virus itself ever could. Think of the cost of lives and "Ignorance is a virus", which in this case is ironically apropos. Agent Smith might agree?
I'd like to share a revelation that I've had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species and I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed and the only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. - Agent Smith - The MatrixExpect a Monday bounce, with only 10% off the top and the "we've bottomed, buy the dip" mantra, after the usual bounce plenty might be selling mid - late March when The Bat Out Of Hell really shows up? TBD. As for real problems rather than imagined ones and all the BOX ticking involved... More to come in COVID19: Bat Out Of Hell? stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended Reading:
2019 nCOV - Pleased To Meet You?
COVID19: Same Bat Time?
COVID19: Same Bat Channel?
Three New US Cases of Unknown Origin
List of US Military Bases
Silicon Valley Indicators
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan
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