COVID19: Bat Out Of Hell?
Picking up where COVID19: Secondary Infection? left off... We Nattered about real problems versus imagined ones and all the box ticking involved for a reason, and unlike others it wasn't to infer that COVID19 is much ado about nothing. As we amply learned...
The WHO reports... The COVID-19 virus is a new pathogen that is highly contagious, can spread quickly, and must be considered capable of causing enormous health, economic and societal impacts in any setting. It is not SARS and it is not influenza. COVID19 virus has a genome identity of 96% to a bat SARS-like coronavirus and 86%-92% to a pangolin SARS-like coronavirus.
What about finding a vaccine? This was achieved on multiple fronts within 3 to 72 hours after the genome was revealed. Speaking of which, as regulatory, clinical testing and production hurdles await, will any of those "educated" guesses work? and if so when?
If this where a FLU - a warm facility would be ready to go for when you need it viz in place technology and infrastructure to crank out vaccines. FYI, there are NO vaccines for any of the four CoronaVirus which infect humans, not even SARS or MERS, wonder why?
Single strand RNA mutation frequency and rapid vaccine development MRna platforms aside, think sunk costs and annual season or market size. Perhaps if COVID19 were to become a seasonal thing? Aside from lining big pharma and "managed" (to give you little) health care coffers, what other "benefits" could there be? And now this...
In industrialized countries, it’s estimated that between 70 - 85% of seasonal influenza related deaths occur in people 65 years and older. Much like the numbed down acceptance of the annual "flu season" (variants A,B,C,D) with an over 65 death toll of 500K globally, perhaps this bat virus is another "tool" to further cut the unfunded private, public pension and social security gaps confronting governments and corporations? Scintillating fiction? Like a bat out of hell, moving West (pun intended)...
Can't stop me now... big box stores, 170K+ gasoline stations, donut shops and 150K+ convenience marts like 7/11, Circle K, Quik Stop. Get together right now... conventions, concerts, museums, theaters and sporting events.
Last but not least... bars, cafes, Starbucks, pizza delivery, restaurants and especially with 250K+ of these in the US alone... every single FAST FOOD FRANCHISE known to man. Also think potential sanitation, express parcel and U.S. Postal delivery service disruptions?
With all the above public venue boxes to be ticked... does one really need to be an epidemiologist, virologist much less an economist to see where this bat virus is going and potentially fast? Speaking of spreading...
The annual flu has a mean R0 value of 1.3: (0.9 to 2.10). COVID19 R0 is 2.2 (1.4 to 3.9). Meaning that on average each COVID19 patient spreads infection to 2.2 other people for a 70% higher transmission rate than the flu.
Given COVID19 novelty it will probably spread much faster and easier throughout the global population. Even with a conservative reduced flu like R0 at 1.3, modeling estimates indicate 300K infected by late March to early April. If COVID19 reaches 50% of the worlds population, which it could by the time an efficacious vaccine is available for the masses...
a MID point 2.0 mortality rate = 80; the low end 0.7 = 28; a diluted global rate of 0.3 = 12 and finally equal to the flu 0.1 = 4 - those numbers are deaths in millions. Fear is the enemy, time is the threat, exhaustion and pap the inevitable consequence.
One must bear in mind that a model doesn't know how many people are actually sick, it only knows how many are reported as infected, regardless of severity. Along those lines...
Dilution is the solution? Better hope there are far more asymptomatic and mildly infected (as opposed to severe and critical) than advertised? viz NOT counted in the data. Oh Nattering One have you fallen sick?
No, as perverted as that sounds, it would actually be good news. An increased dividend (diagnosed infections) potentially lowers the quotient (mortality rate). Which as outlined in our prior, we might see in short order mid to late March. Fingers crossed to hopefully yield a declining divisor (total deaths) and not see a real Bat Out Of Hell?
As for markets "when you have no trust … you SELL." Nor BUY... valuations detached from reality are a matter of CON-fidence... No IG issuance since February 27th? = credit repricing = virus infects credit = the gig's up? Watch credit issuance, spreads and the USD/JPY pair for liquidity.
More to come in COVID19: Pig In A Poke? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended Reading:
2019 nCOV - Pleased To Meet You?
COVID19: Same Bat Time?
COVID19: Same Bat Channel?
COVID19: Secondary Infection?
Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics
Does coronavirus compare with the flu?
Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients
Disease Modelers Model COVID19
A primary infection is infection that is, or can practically be viewed as, the root cause of the current health problem. In contrast, a secondary infection is a sequela or complication of a root cause.In tonight's offering, in an effort to tick all the BOXES, we present evidence to support the correlation between the most dominant virus on the planet (those who read our prior, already know what that is), and a secondary viral infection known as COVID19. Moving West...
The WHO reports... The COVID-19 virus is a new pathogen that is highly contagious, can spread quickly, and must be considered capable of causing enormous health, economic and societal impacts in any setting. It is not SARS and it is not influenza. COVID19 virus has a genome identity of 96% to a bat SARS-like coronavirus and 86%-92% to a pangolin SARS-like coronavirus.
What about finding a vaccine? This was achieved on multiple fronts within 3 to 72 hours after the genome was revealed. Speaking of which, as regulatory, clinical testing and production hurdles await, will any of those "educated" guesses work? and if so when?
If this where a FLU - a warm facility would be ready to go for when you need it viz in place technology and infrastructure to crank out vaccines. FYI, there are NO vaccines for any of the four CoronaVirus which infect humans, not even SARS or MERS, wonder why?
Single strand RNA mutation frequency and rapid vaccine development MRna platforms aside, think sunk costs and annual season or market size. Perhaps if COVID19 were to become a seasonal thing? Aside from lining big pharma and "managed" (to give you little) health care coffers, what other "benefits" could there be? And now this...
In industrialized countries, it’s estimated that between 70 - 85% of seasonal influenza related deaths occur in people 65 years and older. Much like the numbed down acceptance of the annual "flu season" (variants A,B,C,D) with an over 65 death toll of 500K globally, perhaps this bat virus is another "tool" to further cut the unfunded private, public pension and social security gaps confronting governments and corporations? Scintillating fiction? Like a bat out of hell, moving West (pun intended)...
According to the CDC, about 1 in every 25 inpatients has an infection related to hospital care. One might also consider... grocery stores, shopping malls, schools, dormitories, barracks, prisons, public transit, subways, submarines, ferries, ships, buses, trains and airplanes?...Upon further review add these containment and transmission BOXES to be ticked: car pools, nursing homes, senior centers, military bases, mess, PX, communal baths, latrines, gyms, playgrounds and swimming pools.
Can't stop me now... big box stores, 170K+ gasoline stations, donut shops and 150K+ convenience marts like 7/11, Circle K, Quik Stop. Get together right now... conventions, concerts, museums, theaters and sporting events.
Last but not least... bars, cafes, Starbucks, pizza delivery, restaurants and especially with 250K+ of these in the US alone... every single FAST FOOD FRANCHISE known to man. Also think potential sanitation, express parcel and U.S. Postal delivery service disruptions?
With all the above public venue boxes to be ticked... does one really need to be an epidemiologist, virologist much less an economist to see where this bat virus is going and potentially fast? Speaking of spreading...
The annual flu has a mean R0 value of 1.3: (0.9 to 2.10). COVID19 R0 is 2.2 (1.4 to 3.9). Meaning that on average each COVID19 patient spreads infection to 2.2 other people for a 70% higher transmission rate than the flu.
Given COVID19 novelty it will probably spread much faster and easier throughout the global population. Even with a conservative reduced flu like R0 at 1.3, modeling estimates indicate 300K infected by late March to early April. If COVID19 reaches 50% of the worlds population, which it could by the time an efficacious vaccine is available for the masses...
a MID point 2.0 mortality rate = 80; the low end 0.7 = 28; a diluted global rate of 0.3 = 12 and finally equal to the flu 0.1 = 4 - those numbers are deaths in millions. Fear is the enemy, time is the threat, exhaustion and pap the inevitable consequence.
One must bear in mind that a model doesn't know how many people are actually sick, it only knows how many are reported as infected, regardless of severity. Along those lines...
Dilution is the solution? Better hope there are far more asymptomatic and mildly infected (as opposed to severe and critical) than advertised? viz NOT counted in the data. Oh Nattering One have you fallen sick?
No, as perverted as that sounds, it would actually be good news. An increased dividend (diagnosed infections) potentially lowers the quotient (mortality rate). Which as outlined in our prior, we might see in short order mid to late March. Fingers crossed to hopefully yield a declining divisor (total deaths) and not see a real Bat Out Of Hell?
The sirens are screaming and the fires are howling, way down in the valley tonight...
As for markets "when you have no trust … you SELL." Nor BUY... valuations detached from reality are a matter of CON-fidence... No IG issuance since February 27th? = credit repricing = virus infects credit = the gig's up? Watch credit issuance, spreads and the USD/JPY pair for liquidity.
More to come in COVID19: Pig In A Poke? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended Reading:
2019 nCOV - Pleased To Meet You?
COVID19: Same Bat Time?
COVID19: Same Bat Channel?
COVID19: Secondary Infection?
Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics
Does coronavirus compare with the flu?
Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients
Disease Modelers Model COVID19
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read:https://www.zerohedge.com/health/paging-all-its-just-flu-truthers