COVID19: Pig In A Poke?
Picking up where COVID19: Bat Out Of Hell? left off... We've Nattered about crowded environments (boxes to tick), transmission, seasonal flu numbers, mortality rates, imagined vs real, predicted "superspreader" events for many reasons. Unlike others, this was not to infer that COVID19 is much ado about nothing...
A bat drops pieces of food into a rural pig pen, which some hungry little pigs eat. Those little piggies get sent to market. The freshly slaughtered, unpackaged meat gets sold, and the butcher thereof (either in the market or a restaurant) mingles with other live product and people... Nay or Nah? That would be the premise of Soderbergh's realistic 2011 film Contagion and not far removed from where we are today. And now this...
Above, somehow "Tom, Tom The Pipers Son", crime in the big city, a "pig in a poke" and the phrase "it's catchin" seem apropos. Indeed, this pig is a poke may be more than bargained for...
The genome of the novel COVID19 coronavirus consists of a single strand of RNA which can mutate faster than the apropos title of our last posting. It appears COVID19 has evolved into at least two prevalent strains that we know of. Unfortunately, for those suffering spiking infection rates, tonight's offering for your perusal only gets worse...
Witness a kinder gentler pig in a poke? L type (∼70%) was more prevalent in the early stages, more aggressive and spread more quickly. Since 02/21 L's frequency has decreased along with a flattening of new cases in China. Coincidence? Concomitant...
S type (∼30%) the ancestral version of L, initially less prevalent, less aggressive, and might have increased of late in relative frequency. How? As a result of being exported from Wuhan en masse up till the 01/23 lockdown, and witnessed in the form of a spike in new cases outside of China. Wee, wee, wee, went the little piggy as he flew out of the poke...
An estimate of Wuhan outbound air passengers PRIOR to the circa January 20th MSM COVID19 announcement and January 23rd Wuhan - Hubei lockdown (from October through November)...
Coming full circle to one or two prevalent COVID19 strains, rapid mutation and said pig being more than bargained for... as of March 8th, GISAID has mapped 242 "publicly shared" genetic COVID19 mutations. Again, that we know of, making it that much more difficult to come up with a vaccine and fight the virus or pig out of the poke? And now this...
More to come on the knock on effect of monetary policy blunders in COVID19: Great Gig In The Sky? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended Reading:
2019 nCOV - Pleased To Meet You?
COVID19: Same Bat Time?
COVID19: Same Bat Channel?
COVID19: Secondary Infection?
COVID19: Bat Out Of Hell?
Pig in a poke - from the 1500s, when a “poke” was a sack, and merchants would sell piglets in pokes, often sight unseen. Something is sold or bought without the buyer knowing its true nature or value, especially when buying without inspecting the item beforehand.With a real pig in a poke driving Coronavirus stimulus, panic selling - buying and tasering for TP... Take home pay, retail grocery and freezer sales should see a boost? Now add these containment and transmission BOXES to be ticked off (literally): hotels, resorts, casinos (Vegas, etc), amusement parks (DIS), bowling alleys, houses of worship, offices, work environments and factories including drugs, food processing and rendering. Now consider this life imitating art offering...
A bat drops pieces of food into a rural pig pen, which some hungry little pigs eat. Those little piggies get sent to market. The freshly slaughtered, unpackaged meat gets sold, and the butcher thereof (either in the market or a restaurant) mingles with other live product and people... Nay or Nah? That would be the premise of Soderbergh's realistic 2011 film Contagion and not far removed from where we are today. And now this...
Above, somehow "Tom, Tom The Pipers Son", crime in the big city, a "pig in a poke" and the phrase "it's catchin" seem apropos. Indeed, this pig is a poke may be more than bargained for...
The genome of the novel COVID19 coronavirus consists of a single strand of RNA which can mutate faster than the apropos title of our last posting. It appears COVID19 has evolved into at least two prevalent strains that we know of. Unfortunately, for those suffering spiking infection rates, tonight's offering for your perusal only gets worse...
Witness a kinder gentler pig in a poke? L type (∼70%) was more prevalent in the early stages, more aggressive and spread more quickly. Since 02/21 L's frequency has decreased along with a flattening of new cases in China. Coincidence? Concomitant...
S type (∼30%) the ancestral version of L, initially less prevalent, less aggressive, and might have increased of late in relative frequency. How? As a result of being exported from Wuhan en masse up till the 01/23 lockdown, and witnessed in the form of a spike in new cases outside of China. Wee, wee, wee, went the little piggy as he flew out of the poke...
An estimate of Wuhan outbound air passengers PRIOR to the circa January 20th MSM COVID19 announcement and January 23rd Wuhan - Hubei lockdown (from October through November)...
Global estimate which includes December through the January 23rd lockdown in China...One thing you must remember is that the Chinese knew about this in November. That’s the ONLY thing you need to know to place data such as what @LizAnnSonders presents. https://t.co/6kOCNp8uBK— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 5, 2020
Derivative Russian estimate (its 114 days, not 124)...Conservative estimate of 20-80K #COVID19 global seedlings PRIOR to the Jan 23 Hubei lockdown... https://t.co/1dEmoQyCxJ— The Nattering Naybob (@NaybobNattering) March 7, 2020
Derivative US estimate with speculation of further super spreader events...Matryoshka dolls? Nov-Jan 23rd 8K air passengers Hubei to Russia. Carrier odds 5-20% = 400-1600 seeds CONSERVATIVE est. 3000-5000 cases. Russia and Italy (4700 infected) = number of inbound passengers over the 124 days. Don't worry, be happy YMMV - @LizAnnSonders #COVID19 https://t.co/xqlFQ12r5Y— The Nattering Naybob (@NaybobNattering) March 6, 2020
In closing, a dead host does little to advance a viruses cause, so this may favor the less aggressive variant for prevalence sake, a survival mechanism? Survival of the fittest? Sometimes evolution catches a lucky or unlucky bounce, and you get a pig in a poke? Again, we estimate the number of infected to spike by mid to late March.Nov-Jan 23 Hubei→US air outbound 16K. Carrier odds 5-20% = 800-3200 seeds over 114 days. Conservative est. 6-20K cases. Predicted 02/26 post global super spreader Fat Tuesday spike... MLB Spring Training + March Madness + Spring Break = KABOOM!! YMMV. https://t.co/V8zafIkVZS— The Nattering Naybob (@NaybobNattering) March 7, 2020
Coming full circle to one or two prevalent COVID19 strains, rapid mutation and said pig being more than bargained for... as of March 8th, GISAID has mapped 242 "publicly shared" genetic COVID19 mutations. Again, that we know of, making it that much more difficult to come up with a vaccine and fight the virus or pig out of the poke? And now this...
More to come on the knock on effect of monetary policy blunders in COVID19: Great Gig In The Sky? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended Reading:
2019 nCOV - Pleased To Meet You?
COVID19: Same Bat Time?
COVID19: Same Bat Channel?
COVID19: Secondary Infection?
COVID19: Bat Out Of Hell?
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