Market Soapbox 08/29/05
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
European & Asian markets down. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro , XAU up, gold down, XOI & oil up, commodities up, bonds up.
Today's Soohey Pig Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Last week, a down week and continuation of the pattern beginning August 2nd. Today a rebound in the face of $70 oil, the energy sector, tech and healthcare were the winners, transports & airlines got hit.
Oil hit $70.80 today and then backed off to under $66.50 after it was reported the DOE would release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the event it was deemed necessary following damage assessments in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
FYI, Katrina was downgraded to Cat 1, so much for all the media hype. Don't think there will be any SPR release's while Dubya and big oil are in charge.
Bonds rallied dropping the 10 year note to 4.15% intraday. Non farm payrolls will be released on Friday, the whisper number is 215K new jobs, the estimate 190K.
From Friday: "Certain indices have recently dropped below key support levels with authority. The NDX, NAS, MID, RUT, SP500 just broke 60 DMA, the DJIA just broke 180DMA and has broken all 3 DMA's."
"If the indices should break these levels look out: NDX @ 1500; Nasdaq @ 2050; SOX @ 425; DJIA @ 10250; SP500 @ 1190; MID @ 675; RUT @ 625."
The last 3 times the DJIA has breached 180DMA: Sept 13th, 2004 to fall 720 points after breaching the 180DMA, April 14th - 606 points, June 23rd - 475 points, we were 255 down on Friday.
We believe that if todays market and dollar action has follow through in the face of rising oil, the market could surprise some people and correct itself. If not, the downtrend will continue through September and could turn brutal.
Month end action needs to be monitored CLOSELY and we are waiting until after month end portfolio adjustments and inflows/outflows are made.
Please refer to Fridays Market Soapbox 08/26/05 for further opinions on this matter and at this point, be very patient with regard to selling any puts or buying any calls .
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
European & Asian markets down. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro , XAU up, gold down, XOI & oil up, commodities up, bonds up.
Today's Soohey Pig Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Last week, a down week and continuation of the pattern beginning August 2nd. Today a rebound in the face of $70 oil, the energy sector, tech and healthcare were the winners, transports & airlines got hit.
Oil hit $70.80 today and then backed off to under $66.50 after it was reported the DOE would release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the event it was deemed necessary following damage assessments in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
FYI, Katrina was downgraded to Cat 1, so much for all the media hype. Don't think there will be any SPR release's while Dubya and big oil are in charge.
Bonds rallied dropping the 10 year note to 4.15% intraday. Non farm payrolls will be released on Friday, the whisper number is 215K new jobs, the estimate 190K.
From Friday: "Certain indices have recently dropped below key support levels with authority. The NDX, NAS, MID, RUT, SP500 just broke 60 DMA, the DJIA just broke 180DMA and has broken all 3 DMA's."
"If the indices should break these levels look out: NDX @ 1500; Nasdaq @ 2050; SOX @ 425; DJIA @ 10250; SP500 @ 1190; MID @ 675; RUT @ 625."
The last 3 times the DJIA has breached 180DMA: Sept 13th, 2004 to fall 720 points after breaching the 180DMA, April 14th - 606 points, June 23rd - 475 points, we were 255 down on Friday.
We believe that if todays market and dollar action has follow through in the face of rising oil, the market could surprise some people and correct itself. If not, the downtrend will continue through September and could turn brutal.
Month end action needs to be monitored CLOSELY and we are waiting until after month end portfolio adjustments and inflows/outflows are made.
Please refer to Fridays Market Soapbox 08/26/05 for further opinions on this matter and at this point, be very patient with regard to selling any puts or buying any calls .
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Comments