Market Soapbox 08/30/05
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
European & Asian markets up. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro , XAU & gold down, XOI & oil up big, commodities & bonds up big.
Today's Soohey Pig Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Monday, a rebound in the face of $70 oil, the energy sector, tech and healthcare were the winners, transports & airlines got hit.
Today, whipsaw the other way, with the XOI gaining and energy, oil, oil services, commoditiy & healthcare stocks gaining, everything else got beat like a drum.
Consumer Confidence report for August a surprising 105.6 (est. 101.0, prev 103.6 ). Factory Orders for July -1.9% (est. -2.3%).
Bonds rallied big +11 ticks dropping the 10 year note to 4.12% intraday, 12 basis points above the 2 year note. Non farm payrolls will be released on Friday, the whisper number is 215K new jobs, the estimate 190K.
Gold hit a one month low and the AMEX XAX went the opposite way of everyone else. Crude, natural gas & unleaded futures were all up over 5%, transports got hammered.
Certain indices have recently dropped below key support levels with authority. The NDX, NAS, MID, RUT, SP500 just broke 60 DMA, the DJIA just broke 180DMA and has broken all 3 DMA's.
The last 3 times the DJIA has done this: Sept 13th, 2004 to fall 720 points after breaching the 180DMA, April 14th - 606 points, June 23rd - 475 points, from the peak to the low we were 263 down yesterday.
If the indices should break these levels look out: NDX @ 1500; Nasdaq @ 2050; SOX @ 425; DJIA @ 10250; SP500 @ 1190; MID @ 675; RUT @ 625.
Today the dollar had follow through in the face of rising oil, the market did not. At the moment, it appears that the downtrend will continue through September and could turn brutal.
Month end action needs to be monitored CLOSELY. We are watching key support levels, internals and volume while waiting until after month end portfolio adjustments and inflows/outflows are made.
Please refer to Fridays Market Soapbox 08/26/05 for further opinions on this matter and at this point, be very patient with regard to selling any puts or buying any calls .
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
European & Asian markets up. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro , XAU & gold down, XOI & oil up big, commodities & bonds up big.
Today's Soohey Pig Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Monday, a rebound in the face of $70 oil, the energy sector, tech and healthcare were the winners, transports & airlines got hit.
Today, whipsaw the other way, with the XOI gaining and energy, oil, oil services, commoditiy & healthcare stocks gaining, everything else got beat like a drum.
Consumer Confidence report for August a surprising 105.6 (est. 101.0, prev 103.6 ). Factory Orders for July -1.9% (est. -2.3%).
Bonds rallied big +11 ticks dropping the 10 year note to 4.12% intraday, 12 basis points above the 2 year note. Non farm payrolls will be released on Friday, the whisper number is 215K new jobs, the estimate 190K.
Gold hit a one month low and the AMEX XAX went the opposite way of everyone else. Crude, natural gas & unleaded futures were all up over 5%, transports got hammered.
Certain indices have recently dropped below key support levels with authority. The NDX, NAS, MID, RUT, SP500 just broke 60 DMA, the DJIA just broke 180DMA and has broken all 3 DMA's.
The last 3 times the DJIA has done this: Sept 13th, 2004 to fall 720 points after breaching the 180DMA, April 14th - 606 points, June 23rd - 475 points, from the peak to the low we were 263 down yesterday.
If the indices should break these levels look out: NDX @ 1500; Nasdaq @ 2050; SOX @ 425; DJIA @ 10250; SP500 @ 1190; MID @ 675; RUT @ 625.
Today the dollar had follow through in the face of rising oil, the market did not. At the moment, it appears that the downtrend will continue through September and could turn brutal.
Month end action needs to be monitored CLOSELY. We are watching key support levels, internals and volume while waiting until after month end portfolio adjustments and inflows/outflows are made.
Please refer to Fridays Market Soapbox 08/26/05 for further opinions on this matter and at this point, be very patient with regard to selling any puts or buying any calls .
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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