Market Soapbox 09/01/05
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
European & Asian markets up. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro , XAU & gold up, XOI & oil up, commodities & bonds up.
Today's Soohey Pig Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Monday, a rebound in the face of $70 oil, the energy sector, tech and healthcare were the winners, transports & airlines got hit. Tues, whipsaw the other way, down 100 points until a last hour rally halved the damage.
Wend, DJIA, SP500 & Nasdaq rallied nicely by the end of the day and internals looked good. With days like Monday & Wend, one might think the market has turned.
Today, a split tape day, where utilities, agricultural products, gold, oil refiners, steel, integrated oil, & diversified metals roared again.
ADM - Archer, Daniels Midland screamed at +4.3%, the XAU +3.33%, the XOI +3.30%, crude futures closed at $69.40, energy stocks +1.9%, refiners (+2.6%).
Guaranteed moneymakers are refiners, as there is a lack of capacity, trucking & rail companies, to haul what cannot be shipped in or out of Nawleans. Building supply & manufactured housing companies for the rebuilding & temp housing. Futures in soy beans, wheat and other food items could be profitable this year.
The ISM Index, which is a gauge of national manufacturing activity, a disappointment. The data indicated that national manufacturing declined 5.3% since July (to 53.6 versus the 57.0 consensus).
Bonds rallied big the 10-year note dipped below 4.00% at one point and now stands at 4.02%; meanwhile, the 2-yr note, at 3.70%. The spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr notes has widened to 29 basis points versus a gap of just 11 basis points seen Tuesday.
Non farm payrolls will be released on Friday, the whisper number is 215K new jobs, the estimate 190K. A report at the whisper number or below will help the bond market.
An extremely low number will incite the bond market further in its latest rally and could hurt the stock market. A number substantially above whisper will hurt the bond market and benefit the stock market.
If the indices should break these levels look out: NDX @ 1500; Nasdaq @ 2050; SOX @ 425; DJIA @ 10250; SP500 @ 1190; MID @ 675; RUT @ 625.
With a three day weekend, we cannot tell what Friday may bring, we do know that options unwind starts next Wend and its a shortened week, 5 yr note auction Wend, 10 yr note auction Thurs.
This will be a stern test for a weakened and downtrending market staring $70 oil in the face and getting buffeted by the economic fallout of a hurricane which damaged the countrys major port.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
European & Asian markets up. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro , XAU & gold up, XOI & oil up, commodities & bonds up.
Today's Soohey Pig Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Monday, a rebound in the face of $70 oil, the energy sector, tech and healthcare were the winners, transports & airlines got hit. Tues, whipsaw the other way, down 100 points until a last hour rally halved the damage.
Wend, DJIA, SP500 & Nasdaq rallied nicely by the end of the day and internals looked good. With days like Monday & Wend, one might think the market has turned.
Today, a split tape day, where utilities, agricultural products, gold, oil refiners, steel, integrated oil, & diversified metals roared again.
ADM - Archer, Daniels Midland screamed at +4.3%, the XAU +3.33%, the XOI +3.30%, crude futures closed at $69.40, energy stocks +1.9%, refiners (+2.6%).
Guaranteed moneymakers are refiners, as there is a lack of capacity, trucking & rail companies, to haul what cannot be shipped in or out of Nawleans. Building supply & manufactured housing companies for the rebuilding & temp housing. Futures in soy beans, wheat and other food items could be profitable this year.
The ISM Index, which is a gauge of national manufacturing activity, a disappointment. The data indicated that national manufacturing declined 5.3% since July (to 53.6 versus the 57.0 consensus).
Bonds rallied big the 10-year note dipped below 4.00% at one point and now stands at 4.02%; meanwhile, the 2-yr note, at 3.70%. The spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr notes has widened to 29 basis points versus a gap of just 11 basis points seen Tuesday.
Non farm payrolls will be released on Friday, the whisper number is 215K new jobs, the estimate 190K. A report at the whisper number or below will help the bond market.
An extremely low number will incite the bond market further in its latest rally and could hurt the stock market. A number substantially above whisper will hurt the bond market and benefit the stock market.
If the indices should break these levels look out: NDX @ 1500; Nasdaq @ 2050; SOX @ 425; DJIA @ 10250; SP500 @ 1190; MID @ 675; RUT @ 625.
With a three day weekend, we cannot tell what Friday may bring, we do know that options unwind starts next Wend and its a shortened week, 5 yr note auction Wend, 10 yr note auction Thurs.
This will be a stern test for a weakened and downtrending market staring $70 oil in the face and getting buffeted by the economic fallout of a hurricane which damaged the countrys major port.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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