Market Soapbox 09/02/05

Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535

European markets down & Asian markets up. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro , XAU & gold up, XOI & oil down, commodities down & bonds down.

Today's Soohey Pig Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.

Monday, a rebound in the face of $70 oil, the energy sector, tech and healthcare were the winners, transports & airlines got hit. Tues, whipsaw the other way, down 100 points until a last hour rally halved the damage.

Wend, DJIA, SP500 & Nasdaq rallied nicely by the end of the day and internals looked good. With days like Monday & Wend, one might think the market has turned.

Thurs, a split tape day, where utilities, agricultural products, gold, oil refiners, steel, integrated oil, & diversified metals roared again.

Today, another initial split tape lackluster day which turned down into closing with poor internals. Airlines rebounded +3.4% from their latest drubbing.

Energy +7.5% on the week, pulled back -1.3% as energy prices declined. Gold & the XAU gained again as the dollar slipped.

This week: refiners +20.3%, steel +8.3%, diversified metals +7.4%, and construction materials +6.6% were the biggest winners.

Non farm payrolls was released, the whisper number is 215K new jobs, the estimate 190K, the report checked in at 169K.

July non-farm payrolls were upwardly revised to 242K (from 207K) and the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, versus economists' 5% estimate.

From yesterday: "An extremely low (Non farms) number will incite the bond market further in its latest rally and could hurt the stock market." The number was in the ball park and stocks & bonds were flat.

Next week, options unwind starts Wend and its a shortened week, 5 yr note auction Wend, 10 yr note auction Thurs. Outside of the energy sector, things are not looking good, there is no leadership.

This will be a stern test for a weakened and downtrending market staring $70 oil in the face and getting buffeted by the economic fallout of a hurricane which damaged the countrys major port.

We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

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