Market Soapbox 10/03/05
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG and the Jack & Jill ICU award goes to the Semiconductor Industry Association. The SIA's latest report indicates worldwide chip sales rose YOY in August to $18.6 Billion from $18.3 Billion and increased 3.2% over July's sales of $18 Billion.
YTD YOY sales have 5.8% and the SIA is confident that worldwide sales will increase 6% YOY as projected, but they have "lingering concerns" and issued the following disclaimer:
"We remain cautious about consumer confidence, especially in the United States, where the effects of the two recent hurricanes and the subsequent sharp rise in gasoline prices are not reflected in the August sales numbers.”
Last month Jack (read the SOX semi's index) ran up the hill till 09/13 @ 485 and then Jack fell down to 472 at options expiration, killing 3000 calls vs 325 puts. Then Jack rolled down the hill and bottomed out at 452 on 09/22.
09/28 SOX was 459, last three days, the breeze blew under Jill's dirndl and revealed tasty analyst upgrades and a scantilly clad yet bullish industry report, so Jack cinched up his lederhosen and ran eagerly back up the hill towards Jill at 482.
We think Jack's lederhosen are in for another let down and 472.50 looks good again for October expiration and maybe lower depending on whats really under Jill's dirndl (read:the put to call open interest ratios). SOOHEY PIG PIG!!! and yes like poor Jack running up to Jill on the hill, ICU clear as day.
Two weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. Last week, DJIA +148, up and down all week, no leadership or conviction. Last month, only the 10th time since 1970, the market closed up for the month of September.
Today, more up & down, early DJIA +38, then split tape DJIA -32, Semis, Utilities, RUT & MID tried to give leadership, but this looks like another early month tech run up, refer at last months SOX chart and the Jack & Jill ICU award.
Semis, Biotech, Natural Gas, Transport, Energy & Utilities up nicely. Real Estate, Commodities & Gold Bugs down. For the quarter, energy prices, crude + 13%, unleaded gas + 44, natural gas + 80%.
European markets up & Asian markets down. Dollar up BIG vs. Yen & Euro , XAU & gold down, XOI & oil up, commodities up & bonds down. Contra trend: oil & commodities up with the $.
From Market Soapbox 09/27/05; "I expect the dollar at a two month high to break 1.20 Euro and 115 Yen shortly." Today 1.19 Euro and 114 yen to the dollar.
We are almost there on the yen with the Dollar index @ 90 and I think it could head for 100, while the XAU goes from 110 down to 100, I'm watching closely.
Sept national ISM checked in at 10.8% higher than last month at 59.4 est 52 vs Aug 53.6 . Aug construction spending hit the est 0.4%. Bonds slid on the bullish news.
Bond prices down with the 10 year yield increasing to 4.38%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 15 basis points. The 30 year fell raising its yield to 4.61, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 23 basis points. FYI, the 2 year and 5 year gap is only 2 basis points.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG and the Jack & Jill ICU award goes to the Semiconductor Industry Association. The SIA's latest report indicates worldwide chip sales rose YOY in August to $18.6 Billion from $18.3 Billion and increased 3.2% over July's sales of $18 Billion.
YTD YOY sales have 5.8% and the SIA is confident that worldwide sales will increase 6% YOY as projected, but they have "lingering concerns" and issued the following disclaimer:
"We remain cautious about consumer confidence, especially in the United States, where the effects of the two recent hurricanes and the subsequent sharp rise in gasoline prices are not reflected in the August sales numbers.”
Last month Jack (read the SOX semi's index) ran up the hill till 09/13 @ 485 and then Jack fell down to 472 at options expiration, killing 3000 calls vs 325 puts. Then Jack rolled down the hill and bottomed out at 452 on 09/22.
09/28 SOX was 459, last three days, the breeze blew under Jill's dirndl and revealed tasty analyst upgrades and a scantilly clad yet bullish industry report, so Jack cinched up his lederhosen and ran eagerly back up the hill towards Jill at 482.
We think Jack's lederhosen are in for another let down and 472.50 looks good again for October expiration and maybe lower depending on whats really under Jill's dirndl (read:the put to call open interest ratios). SOOHEY PIG PIG!!! and yes like poor Jack running up to Jill on the hill, ICU clear as day.
Two weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. Last week, DJIA +148, up and down all week, no leadership or conviction. Last month, only the 10th time since 1970, the market closed up for the month of September.
Today, more up & down, early DJIA +38, then split tape DJIA -32, Semis, Utilities, RUT & MID tried to give leadership, but this looks like another early month tech run up, refer at last months SOX chart and the Jack & Jill ICU award.
Semis, Biotech, Natural Gas, Transport, Energy & Utilities up nicely. Real Estate, Commodities & Gold Bugs down. For the quarter, energy prices, crude + 13%, unleaded gas + 44, natural gas + 80%.
European markets up & Asian markets down. Dollar up BIG vs. Yen & Euro , XAU & gold down, XOI & oil up, commodities up & bonds down. Contra trend: oil & commodities up with the $.
From Market Soapbox 09/27/05; "I expect the dollar at a two month high to break 1.20 Euro and 115 Yen shortly." Today 1.19 Euro and 114 yen to the dollar.
We are almost there on the yen with the Dollar index @ 90 and I think it could head for 100, while the XAU goes from 110 down to 100, I'm watching closely.
Sept national ISM checked in at 10.8% higher than last month at 59.4 est 52 vs Aug 53.6 . Aug construction spending hit the est 0.4%. Bonds slid on the bullish news.
Bond prices down with the 10 year yield increasing to 4.38%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 15 basis points. The 30 year fell raising its yield to 4.61, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 23 basis points. FYI, the 2 year and 5 year gap is only 2 basis points.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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