Market Soapbox 10/05/05
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
European & Asian markets down BIG. Dollar down vs. Yen & Euro , XAU -2.85% & gold down, XOI -4% & oil down, commodities down & bonds up. Contra trend: $ & Gold down together.
Two weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. Last week, DJIA +148, up and down all week, lacking leadership & conviction.
Last month, only the 10th time since 1970, the market closed up for the month of September. Mon, up & down, early DJIA +38, then split tape to end DJIA -33. Tues, despite crude oil -3%; DJIA -94 falling fast and hard into the close.
Just when you thought you it was safe to go back in the water, you can't even make it past the sand. Today, someone opened up a can of WHOOP-ASS on the market with AUTHORITY, a sea of blood from profit taking, absolutely horrific internals and falling hard into the close. DJIA -123, SP500 -18; Nasdaq -36; this week DJIA -250.
Between yesterday and today, most sectors were crushed like scurrying roaches losing 5 - 7%, especially areas that everyone has been piling into like energy and materials. NYSE Arms, VXN & VIX or Volatility was the only thing up today and it was up BIG TIME.
Everything else down big and hard. RUT -2.84%; MID -2.34%; DJ Utilities -3.23%. Biotech -4.65%, Energy -2.2%, Natural Gas -4.12%, Oil Services -4.17%, Oil -4.04%, Real Estate -1.80%, Reits -2%, Commodities -3.23%, Semis -1.37% & Gold Bugs -3% .
Bond prices up with the 10 year yield falling to 4.35%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 14 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.57, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 22 basis points. FYI, the 2 year and 5 year gap is only 2 basis points.
ISM Services est 60 prior 65 checked in at 53.3 the lowest since April 03. The key was the prices paid index, which rose to a record high of 81.4 from 67.1. Overall the ISM shows decelerating growth in the services industry for the 1st time in over 2 years along with rising inflation.
A weakening services sector prompted a dip in the dollar for the 1st time in four sessions vs Yen & Euro. But the $ will still have its 5th straight winning week vs the Euro, a 1st since Jan 01. Could this be stagflation? Nah, the CPI would never reflect that would it?
The EIA report showed crude reserves declining 246K barrels vs. 1.70M est. Gasoline inventories slid 4.38M, vs.est 3.0M draw down, while distillates declined 5.53M vs. est 2.0M barrel draw down.
From yesterday: "This market is listing, directionless, almost like in the calm before a storm. On weak legs, with no conviction or impetus, at best it can go nowhere. At worst, if a great squall comes, this could well be the perfect storm. And from what we saw this afternoon, maybe that's just a taste of coming attractions."
Just one look at the advance decline volume NYSE 10 declining to 1 advancing on higher volume and that sez it all, in spades and more to come. The 90DMA level for the SP500, DJIA, MID, RUT & Nasdaq was obliterated on high volume yesterday and today. Only the SOX & NDX are still above 90 DMA.
All I can say is look out below, and if you have not already, get your Bermuda shorts on cuz meesa tink weesa startin a beeg ting here. So far its profit taking & consolidation, now lets see if everyone starts heading for the exits at the same time.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
European & Asian markets down BIG. Dollar down vs. Yen & Euro , XAU -2.85% & gold down, XOI -4% & oil down, commodities down & bonds up. Contra trend: $ & Gold down together.
Two weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. Last week, DJIA +148, up and down all week, lacking leadership & conviction.
Last month, only the 10th time since 1970, the market closed up for the month of September. Mon, up & down, early DJIA +38, then split tape to end DJIA -33. Tues, despite crude oil -3%; DJIA -94 falling fast and hard into the close.
Just when you thought you it was safe to go back in the water, you can't even make it past the sand. Today, someone opened up a can of WHOOP-ASS on the market with AUTHORITY, a sea of blood from profit taking, absolutely horrific internals and falling hard into the close. DJIA -123, SP500 -18; Nasdaq -36; this week DJIA -250.
Between yesterday and today, most sectors were crushed like scurrying roaches losing 5 - 7%, especially areas that everyone has been piling into like energy and materials. NYSE Arms, VXN & VIX or Volatility was the only thing up today and it was up BIG TIME.
Everything else down big and hard. RUT -2.84%; MID -2.34%; DJ Utilities -3.23%. Biotech -4.65%, Energy -2.2%, Natural Gas -4.12%, Oil Services -4.17%, Oil -4.04%, Real Estate -1.80%, Reits -2%, Commodities -3.23%, Semis -1.37% & Gold Bugs -3% .
Bond prices up with the 10 year yield falling to 4.35%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 14 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.57, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 22 basis points. FYI, the 2 year and 5 year gap is only 2 basis points.
ISM Services est 60 prior 65 checked in at 53.3 the lowest since April 03. The key was the prices paid index, which rose to a record high of 81.4 from 67.1. Overall the ISM shows decelerating growth in the services industry for the 1st time in over 2 years along with rising inflation.
A weakening services sector prompted a dip in the dollar for the 1st time in four sessions vs Yen & Euro. But the $ will still have its 5th straight winning week vs the Euro, a 1st since Jan 01. Could this be stagflation? Nah, the CPI would never reflect that would it?
The EIA report showed crude reserves declining 246K barrels vs. 1.70M est. Gasoline inventories slid 4.38M, vs.est 3.0M draw down, while distillates declined 5.53M vs. est 2.0M barrel draw down.
From yesterday: "This market is listing, directionless, almost like in the calm before a storm. On weak legs, with no conviction or impetus, at best it can go nowhere. At worst, if a great squall comes, this could well be the perfect storm. And from what we saw this afternoon, maybe that's just a taste of coming attractions."
Just one look at the advance decline volume NYSE 10 declining to 1 advancing on higher volume and that sez it all, in spades and more to come. The 90DMA level for the SP500, DJIA, MID, RUT & Nasdaq was obliterated on high volume yesterday and today. Only the SOX & NDX are still above 90 DMA.
All I can say is look out below, and if you have not already, get your Bermuda shorts on cuz meesa tink weesa startin a beeg ting here. So far its profit taking & consolidation, now lets see if everyone starts heading for the exits at the same time.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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