Market Soapbox 10/07/05
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke. I get a double portion for posting this a day late. Lazy me. My bad.
European & Asian markets down. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro, XAU & gold up, XOI & oil up, commodities up & bonds flat. Contra trend: none.
Two weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. Last week, DJIA +148, up and down all week, lacking leadership & conviction. Last month, only the 10th time since 1970, the market closed up for the month of September.
Mon, up & down, early DJIA +38, then split tape to end DJIA -33. Tues, DJIA -94 falling fast and hard into the close. Wen, someone opened up a can of WHOOP-ASS on the market with AUTHORITY, DJIA -123. Thurs, DJIA -31 major internal damage and saved by a bounce at the bell, this week DJIA -281, over the last three weeks DJIA -403.
Today, a nice +60 DJIA rally to open, then fizzle and downwards, leaking into the close for a sideways day DJIA +5. DJTA, DJUA, XAU, XOI & RUT tried to give leadership. Internals were somewhat improved with a high 52 week low to high ratio. Does someone think we are oversold?
Gold Bugs +2.4%, Energy +2.2%, Oil Services +2.2%, Natural Gas +2.2%, Oil +2.1%, Utilities +1.2%, Commodities +1.8%, Cyclicals +1%, Basic Materials +1.4% all up. Reits -1% down.
Further flattening as the yield curve is going through convulsions. Bond prices rising with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.37%. The 5 & 10 year gap is 6 basis points (major compression in the last week). The 30 year @ 4.56, the 10 & 30 gap is 19 basis points (some compression). The 2 and 5 year gap is 12 basis points (major widening).
Nonfarm payrolls fell a less than expected 35K (est -150K). Consumer credit checked in at $4.9B vs. $5.0B est, a slight increase over July's $4.4B. August wholesale inventories rising 0.5% upon a 1.3% jump in sales.
The consumers dauber may be down as shown by confidence indexes, but yesterdays same store sales data and todays data showed that American consumers are still holding up their end of the bargain, and the global economy with it.
The ECB did not change their rate staying put a 2%, however they changed their language, signaling rate increases to come. This caused the Euro to rise yesterday against the dollar, the highest single day gain in 2 years.
Japan, China & the Eurozone are all indicating rate increases, along with the FED, in an effort to fight inflation. Why would anyone think rates are going to stop going up or go down? Another question for those bondsters.
I recently commented that the only thing which could give the market a boost or impetus to the upside would be a pullback in energy futures, boy was I wrong. I forgot that as the underlying commodity goes, so goes the stocks influenced by it. Energy sector -11% over the previous five days, today up 2.2%.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke. I get a double portion for posting this a day late. Lazy me. My bad.
European & Asian markets down. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro, XAU & gold up, XOI & oil up, commodities up & bonds flat. Contra trend: none.
Two weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. Last week, DJIA +148, up and down all week, lacking leadership & conviction. Last month, only the 10th time since 1970, the market closed up for the month of September.
Mon, up & down, early DJIA +38, then split tape to end DJIA -33. Tues, DJIA -94 falling fast and hard into the close. Wen, someone opened up a can of WHOOP-ASS on the market with AUTHORITY, DJIA -123. Thurs, DJIA -31 major internal damage and saved by a bounce at the bell, this week DJIA -281, over the last three weeks DJIA -403.
Today, a nice +60 DJIA rally to open, then fizzle and downwards, leaking into the close for a sideways day DJIA +5. DJTA, DJUA, XAU, XOI & RUT tried to give leadership. Internals were somewhat improved with a high 52 week low to high ratio. Does someone think we are oversold?
Gold Bugs +2.4%, Energy +2.2%, Oil Services +2.2%, Natural Gas +2.2%, Oil +2.1%, Utilities +1.2%, Commodities +1.8%, Cyclicals +1%, Basic Materials +1.4% all up. Reits -1% down.
Further flattening as the yield curve is going through convulsions. Bond prices rising with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.37%. The 5 & 10 year gap is 6 basis points (major compression in the last week). The 30 year @ 4.56, the 10 & 30 gap is 19 basis points (some compression). The 2 and 5 year gap is 12 basis points (major widening).
Nonfarm payrolls fell a less than expected 35K (est -150K). Consumer credit checked in at $4.9B vs. $5.0B est, a slight increase over July's $4.4B. August wholesale inventories rising 0.5% upon a 1.3% jump in sales.
The consumers dauber may be down as shown by confidence indexes, but yesterdays same store sales data and todays data showed that American consumers are still holding up their end of the bargain, and the global economy with it.
The ECB did not change their rate staying put a 2%, however they changed their language, signaling rate increases to come. This caused the Euro to rise yesterday against the dollar, the highest single day gain in 2 years.
Japan, China & the Eurozone are all indicating rate increases, along with the FED, in an effort to fight inflation. Why would anyone think rates are going to stop going up or go down? Another question for those bondsters.
I recently commented that the only thing which could give the market a boost or impetus to the upside would be a pullback in energy futures, boy was I wrong. I forgot that as the underlying commodity goes, so goes the stocks influenced by it. Energy sector -11% over the previous five days, today up 2.2%.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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