Market Soapbox 10/04/05 UPDATED
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Two weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. Last week, DJIA +148, up and down all week, no leadership or conviction.
Last month, only the 10th time since 1970, the market closed up for the month of September. Mon, up & down, early DJIA +38, then split tape to end DJIA -33. This week to date DJIA -127.
Today, despite a continued pullback in energy futures and crude oil -3% @ 63.40; a wavy gravy, initially feeble effort with sickly internals which turned into a train wreck at 1:30EST, DJIA -94 falling fast and hard into the close.
Utilities, Airlines +3.3%, Networking, Wireless, Pharma, Biotech, Consumer, Healthcare up. Energy -2.2%, Natural Gas -3%, Oil Services -1.9%, Mortgage lenders -1.2%; Oil -3%, Real Estate, Reits, Commodities -1.85% & Gold Bugs -1.8% down big.
European & Asian markets up. Dollar split vs. Yen & Euro , XAU & gold down, XOI -3% & oil down BIG, commodities down & bonds flat. Contra trend: none
The dollar at a 16 month high vs Yen; 2 month high vs Euro. YTD Sector Update: Airlines -30%; Retailers -5.2%; Utilities +20%; Integrated Oil +29%; Drillers +39%; Energy +40%; Refiners +94%.
Bond prices flat with the 10 year yield at 4.37%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 14 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.60, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 23 basis points. FYI, the 2 year and 5 year gap is only 2 basis points.
Aug. factory orders rose 2.5% stronger than the estimated 2.0% rise due to a modest upward revision to durables orders (to +3.4% from +3.3%) and stronger than expected nondurables orders (+1.6%). Remember these numbers are from August.
Some harbingers of things to come? In Energy, BP reported that it will not meet FY05 production targets and will see a $700M Katrina and Rita related profit shortfall, energy -2.2% today.
In Tech, Lexmark cut its Q3 earnings outlook by 50% on account of a sales shortfall, the stock has plunged 26% today.
In Housing, a New York Times article references a slowing housing market and record insider selling in the housing sector, homebuilders down 2.1% today.
In Consumer Staples, Proctor & Gamble off 1.4% today after Citigroup downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and cut its price target on concerns over raw material pricing.
This market is listing, directionless, almost like in the calm before a storm. On weak legs, with no conviction or impetus, at best it can go nowhere.
At worst, if a great squall comes, this could well be the perfect storm. And from what we saw this afternoon, maybe that's just a taste of coming attractions.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Two weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, the rest sitting on 90DMA. Last week, DJIA +148, up and down all week, no leadership or conviction.
Last month, only the 10th time since 1970, the market closed up for the month of September. Mon, up & down, early DJIA +38, then split tape to end DJIA -33. This week to date DJIA -127.
Today, despite a continued pullback in energy futures and crude oil -3% @ 63.40; a wavy gravy, initially feeble effort with sickly internals which turned into a train wreck at 1:30EST, DJIA -94 falling fast and hard into the close.
Utilities, Airlines +3.3%, Networking, Wireless, Pharma, Biotech, Consumer, Healthcare up. Energy -2.2%, Natural Gas -3%, Oil Services -1.9%, Mortgage lenders -1.2%; Oil -3%, Real Estate, Reits, Commodities -1.85% & Gold Bugs -1.8% down big.
European & Asian markets up. Dollar split vs. Yen & Euro , XAU & gold down, XOI -3% & oil down BIG, commodities down & bonds flat. Contra trend: none
The dollar at a 16 month high vs Yen; 2 month high vs Euro. YTD Sector Update: Airlines -30%; Retailers -5.2%; Utilities +20%; Integrated Oil +29%; Drillers +39%; Energy +40%; Refiners +94%.
Bond prices flat with the 10 year yield at 4.37%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 14 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.60, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 23 basis points. FYI, the 2 year and 5 year gap is only 2 basis points.
Aug. factory orders rose 2.5% stronger than the estimated 2.0% rise due to a modest upward revision to durables orders (to +3.4% from +3.3%) and stronger than expected nondurables orders (+1.6%). Remember these numbers are from August.
Some harbingers of things to come? In Energy, BP reported that it will not meet FY05 production targets and will see a $700M Katrina and Rita related profit shortfall, energy -2.2% today.
In Tech, Lexmark cut its Q3 earnings outlook by 50% on account of a sales shortfall, the stock has plunged 26% today.
In Housing, a New York Times article references a slowing housing market and record insider selling in the housing sector, homebuilders down 2.1% today.
In Consumer Staples, Proctor & Gamble off 1.4% today after Citigroup downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and cut its price target on concerns over raw material pricing.
This market is listing, directionless, almost like in the calm before a storm. On weak legs, with no conviction or impetus, at best it can go nowhere.
At worst, if a great squall comes, this could well be the perfect storm. And from what we saw this afternoon, maybe that's just a taste of coming attractions.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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