Market Soapbox 11/15/05
Resistance: DJIA 10800; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2225; NDX 1670
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, oil edged above $58 per barrel initially lending support to the market through the energy sector, then pulling back under $57 @ $56.90 which took the market down.
The dollar hit a two year intraday high vs. the Euro at 1.169 and vs. the Yen at 118.99, a small consolidation in the buck ensued.
Oct. PPI +0.7%, vs. est. -0.2% vs. prior +1.9%, core PPI -0.3% vs. est. +0.2% vs. prior +0.3%. The total rose as expected, but not as much as last month, however, the core pulled back, which eased the markets inflation concerns.
Oct. retail sales -0.1% vs. est. -1.1% vs. prior +0.3%, while sales, ex auto, +0.9% vs. est. +0.3% vs. prior +1.1%, indicative of declining consumer spending heading into the holiday shopping season. Nov. NY Empire State Index @ 22.8 vs. est. 17 vs. prior 12.1, showing increased activity in the NY manufacturing area.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to the spinsters in the media for once again trumpeting the canard that core PPI's largest one month decline in over two years, provided no evidence of broad inflationary pressures.
In the real world, where energy and food are included, overall PPI rose more than expected and energy prices were up 4.1%, which will continue to filter through the supply chain and cause STAGFLATION.
When will the Fed get rid of the CORE, which at best is a laggardly soppy wanker of an indicator, and use an econometric indicator that is timely and based on reality??? SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!!!!
8 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, plunging below all major DMA's. 7 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 6 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down on higher volume. 5 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6.
4 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77, 3 weeks ago, even larger swings, DJIA +186. 2 weeks ago, broadbased gains on higher volume DJIA +128. Last week, DJIA +154, three consecutive weeks of gains totaling DJIA +468.
This week, Mon. DJIA +11 on lower volume with tepid internals. Today, initially split tape, DJIA +35 early on tepid internals and lower volume, sucumbing to lower crude, energy and financials bleeding into the close DJIA -11 with horrible internals on higher volume. This week DJIA flat, over the last 9 weeks DJIA -18.
RUT & XAU both down again BIG and the DJTA suffering as well. DJUA up. CAC down, DAX up & FTSE down, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down.
Dollar flat vs. Euro & up vs. Yen, XAU & gold down, XOI & crude down @ 56.98, CRB commodities down & bonds up. Contra trend: Back to back days, RUT declining as other indices were rising. Sniff, sniff, more later.
Sectors: Airlines, Gold Bugs, Retail, Wireless, Telecom, Transports, Financials, Sec. Brokers & Banking all clubbed down BIG. Natural Gas, Pharma, Utilites & Healthcare up.
The low end of the curve looking like the margin swap flats, sniff, sniff, more later; Bonds UP on misleading CORE PPI hopes with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.56% & the 30 year @ 4.74. The 2 & 5 year gap @ 3 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap holding @ 18 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, Nov 16th: CPI & Net Foreign Purchases; Nov 17th Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production. Nov 18th: Options Expiration.
Today, energy, commodities & basic materials equities were initially up while CRB and the underlying commodities futures pulled back. More of that decoupling we mentioned last week occuring??
Unfortunately NOT, as late day equities went the way of the underlying commodities i.e. crude under $57. This market appears to have no backbone, leadership or conviction.
Regarding margin swap flats, today, the narrowest yield curve since January 2001 and significantly narrower than the 187 basis point spread nearly a year and a half ago (when the Fed began to hike rates) and the 116 basis point spread at the beginning of this year.
From Friday: "we suspect Monday may ramp up slightly, but Tues PPI & Wend CPI could give the market an interest rate fear clubbing." So far, the small cap RUT suffered yesterday running contra to the overall market & today it suffered the worst of all indices.
Excuse me, but, don't small cap companies get hurt the most by rising borrowing costs? Don't financials get hurt by rising rates and a flat yield curve? Is somebody sending a message in a bottle from the island of reality by selling off the RUT and finacials?
Maybe, some informed investors don't believe the CORE snow job and they see stagflation, rising rates and a yield curve inversion in our future. Kudos to these informed and intelligent investors.
Tomorrows Oct. CORE CPI est. +0.1% vs. prior +0.1%, TOTAL CPI est. +0.1% vs. prior +1.2%. Much like today, we don't think the numbers will be as benign as the estimates. How the media regurgitates and investors digest the pablum is another story.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, oil edged above $58 per barrel initially lending support to the market through the energy sector, then pulling back under $57 @ $56.90 which took the market down.
The dollar hit a two year intraday high vs. the Euro at 1.169 and vs. the Yen at 118.99, a small consolidation in the buck ensued.
Oct. PPI +0.7%, vs. est. -0.2% vs. prior +1.9%, core PPI -0.3% vs. est. +0.2% vs. prior +0.3%. The total rose as expected, but not as much as last month, however, the core pulled back, which eased the markets inflation concerns.
Oct. retail sales -0.1% vs. est. -1.1% vs. prior +0.3%, while sales, ex auto, +0.9% vs. est. +0.3% vs. prior +1.1%, indicative of declining consumer spending heading into the holiday shopping season. Nov. NY Empire State Index @ 22.8 vs. est. 17 vs. prior 12.1, showing increased activity in the NY manufacturing area.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to the spinsters in the media for once again trumpeting the canard that core PPI's largest one month decline in over two years, provided no evidence of broad inflationary pressures.
In the real world, where energy and food are included, overall PPI rose more than expected and energy prices were up 4.1%, which will continue to filter through the supply chain and cause STAGFLATION.
When will the Fed get rid of the CORE, which at best is a laggardly soppy wanker of an indicator, and use an econometric indicator that is timely and based on reality??? SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!!!!
8 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, plunging below all major DMA's. 7 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 6 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down on higher volume. 5 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6.
4 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77, 3 weeks ago, even larger swings, DJIA +186. 2 weeks ago, broadbased gains on higher volume DJIA +128. Last week, DJIA +154, three consecutive weeks of gains totaling DJIA +468.
This week, Mon. DJIA +11 on lower volume with tepid internals. Today, initially split tape, DJIA +35 early on tepid internals and lower volume, sucumbing to lower crude, energy and financials bleeding into the close DJIA -11 with horrible internals on higher volume. This week DJIA flat, over the last 9 weeks DJIA -18.
RUT & XAU both down again BIG and the DJTA suffering as well. DJUA up. CAC down, DAX up & FTSE down, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down.
Dollar flat vs. Euro & up vs. Yen, XAU & gold down, XOI & crude down @ 56.98, CRB commodities down & bonds up. Contra trend: Back to back days, RUT declining as other indices were rising. Sniff, sniff, more later.
Sectors: Airlines, Gold Bugs, Retail, Wireless, Telecom, Transports, Financials, Sec. Brokers & Banking all clubbed down BIG. Natural Gas, Pharma, Utilites & Healthcare up.
The low end of the curve looking like the margin swap flats, sniff, sniff, more later; Bonds UP on misleading CORE PPI hopes with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.56% & the 30 year @ 4.74. The 2 & 5 year gap @ 3 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap holding @ 18 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, Nov 16th: CPI & Net Foreign Purchases; Nov 17th Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production. Nov 18th: Options Expiration.
Today, energy, commodities & basic materials equities were initially up while CRB and the underlying commodities futures pulled back. More of that decoupling we mentioned last week occuring??
Unfortunately NOT, as late day equities went the way of the underlying commodities i.e. crude under $57. This market appears to have no backbone, leadership or conviction.
Regarding margin swap flats, today, the narrowest yield curve since January 2001 and significantly narrower than the 187 basis point spread nearly a year and a half ago (when the Fed began to hike rates) and the 116 basis point spread at the beginning of this year.
From Friday: "we suspect Monday may ramp up slightly, but Tues PPI & Wend CPI could give the market an interest rate fear clubbing." So far, the small cap RUT suffered yesterday running contra to the overall market & today it suffered the worst of all indices.
Excuse me, but, don't small cap companies get hurt the most by rising borrowing costs? Don't financials get hurt by rising rates and a flat yield curve? Is somebody sending a message in a bottle from the island of reality by selling off the RUT and finacials?
Maybe, some informed investors don't believe the CORE snow job and they see stagflation, rising rates and a yield curve inversion in our future. Kudos to these informed and intelligent investors.
Tomorrows Oct. CORE CPI est. +0.1% vs. prior +0.1%, TOTAL CPI est. +0.1% vs. prior +1.2%. Much like today, we don't think the numbers will be as benign as the estimates. How the media regurgitates and investors digest the pablum is another story.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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