Market Soapbox 11/16/05
Resistance: DJIA 10800; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2225; NDX 1670
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, GM shares hit an 18 year low as the stock was whipped for another 6% today, and has plunged 44% this year. Its a buying opportunity right?? This is a falling knive you really don't want to catch. Wonder how Kirk Kerkorian feels?
American Express' announced that Wall Street's expectations for 25% EPS growth in Q4 are "far too high," the stock was beat down 1.67%%. The sell off in banks and brokers continued with almost 90% of the financial issues posting losses today.
October TOTAL CPI checked in at +0.2% vs. est. 0.0% vs. prior +1.2%; Oct. CORE CPI checked in at +0.2% vs est. +0.1% vs. prior +0.1%, this shows that total and core inflation is increasing.
The EIA report showed crude oil -2.2 million barrels vs, est. +2M; distillates +2.6M vs est. +450K; gasoline -900K vs est. +1.6M. Showing that oil & gasoline drew down, as distillates built. Crude prices jumped above $58 on the news.
Net foreign purchases of long term domestic securities were at a record $118.1 billion, $4.3 billion of which were net purchases by foreign official institutions and $113.8 billion of which were net purchases by private investors.
The $4.3B purchased by central banks is down from $10.4B in August. However China continued to increase their holdings buying $252.2 B vs. $248 B in August. Japan and the UK increased their holdings as well.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
8 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, plunging below all major DMA's. 7 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 6 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down on higher volume. 5 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6.
4 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77, 3 weeks ago, even larger swings, DJIA +186. 2 weeks ago, broadbased gains on higher volume DJIA +128. Last week, DJIA +154, three consecutive weeks of gains totaling DJIA +468.
This week, Mon. DJIA +11 on tepid internals. Tues, DJIA -11 with horrible internals on higher volume. Today, DJIA -12 on tepid internals and lower volume. This week DJIA -12, over the last 9 weeks DJIA -30.
DJTA, SOX, XMI & RUT (3rd straight day) down, XAU up BIG TIME, XOI & DJUA all nicely. CAC, DAX & FTSE down, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up.
Dollar up vs. Euro 1.17 & Yen 118.65, XAU +6% & gold up 482, XOI & crude up 1.7% @ 57.71, CRB commodities & bonds up. Contra trend: $ & gold & CRB & crude up.
Sectors: Gold Bugs +7%, Biotech, Internet, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Services, Energy, Retail, Utilites & Commodity up nicely. Networking, Wireless, Pharma, Broker, Financial, REIT's & Tobacco beat down.
Bonds up BIG on misleading CORE CPI media spin with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.47% & the 30 year @ 4.66. The 2 & 5 year gap @ 2 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap holding @ 19 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, Nov 17th Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production. Nov 18th: Options Expiration.
Yesterday: "So far, the small cap RUT suffered yesterday running contra to the overall market & today it suffered the worst of all indices." Today made it a three peat and the financials are getting pounded which sends a clear messsage that some investors smell the yield curve flattening, inflation and higher rates to come.
Yesterday: "Tomorrows CPI... we don't think the numbers will be as benign as the estimates. How the media regurgitates and investors digest the pablum is another story." The numbers showed that inflation is on the rise at all levels, the bond markets inability to comprehend this is a conundrum.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, GM shares hit an 18 year low as the stock was whipped for another 6% today, and has plunged 44% this year. Its a buying opportunity right?? This is a falling knive you really don't want to catch. Wonder how Kirk Kerkorian feels?
American Express' announced that Wall Street's expectations for 25% EPS growth in Q4 are "far too high," the stock was beat down 1.67%%. The sell off in banks and brokers continued with almost 90% of the financial issues posting losses today.
October TOTAL CPI checked in at +0.2% vs. est. 0.0% vs. prior +1.2%; Oct. CORE CPI checked in at +0.2% vs est. +0.1% vs. prior +0.1%, this shows that total and core inflation is increasing.
The EIA report showed crude oil -2.2 million barrels vs, est. +2M; distillates +2.6M vs est. +450K; gasoline -900K vs est. +1.6M. Showing that oil & gasoline drew down, as distillates built. Crude prices jumped above $58 on the news.
Net foreign purchases of long term domestic securities were at a record $118.1 billion, $4.3 billion of which were net purchases by foreign official institutions and $113.8 billion of which were net purchases by private investors.
The $4.3B purchased by central banks is down from $10.4B in August. However China continued to increase their holdings buying $252.2 B vs. $248 B in August. Japan and the UK increased their holdings as well.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
8 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, plunging below all major DMA's. 7 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 6 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down on higher volume. 5 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6.
4 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77, 3 weeks ago, even larger swings, DJIA +186. 2 weeks ago, broadbased gains on higher volume DJIA +128. Last week, DJIA +154, three consecutive weeks of gains totaling DJIA +468.
This week, Mon. DJIA +11 on tepid internals. Tues, DJIA -11 with horrible internals on higher volume. Today, DJIA -12 on tepid internals and lower volume. This week DJIA -12, over the last 9 weeks DJIA -30.
DJTA, SOX, XMI & RUT (3rd straight day) down, XAU up BIG TIME, XOI & DJUA all nicely. CAC, DAX & FTSE down, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up.
Dollar up vs. Euro 1.17 & Yen 118.65, XAU +6% & gold up 482, XOI & crude up 1.7% @ 57.71, CRB commodities & bonds up. Contra trend: $ & gold & CRB & crude up.
Sectors: Gold Bugs +7%, Biotech, Internet, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Services, Energy, Retail, Utilites & Commodity up nicely. Networking, Wireless, Pharma, Broker, Financial, REIT's & Tobacco beat down.
Bonds up BIG on misleading CORE CPI media spin with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.47% & the 30 year @ 4.66. The 2 & 5 year gap @ 2 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap holding @ 19 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, Nov 17th Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production. Nov 18th: Options Expiration.
Yesterday: "So far, the small cap RUT suffered yesterday running contra to the overall market & today it suffered the worst of all indices." Today made it a three peat and the financials are getting pounded which sends a clear messsage that some investors smell the yield curve flattening, inflation and higher rates to come.
Yesterday: "Tomorrows CPI... we don't think the numbers will be as benign as the estimates. How the media regurgitates and investors digest the pablum is another story." The numbers showed that inflation is on the rise at all levels, the bond markets inability to comprehend this is a conundrum.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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