Market Soapbox 11/29/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1275; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1700
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, Oct. durable orders had the biggest increase since June 2000 +3.4% vs. est. +1.5% vs. prior -2.4; strong business investment was shown as orders +1.7% ex defense but excluding transportation, just +0.3%.
Consumer confidence is way up at 98.9 vs est. 90.0 vs. prior 85 which was its worst lowest level in two years.
Yesterday, existing home sales declined 3.7% and are at the lowest level since March, today, new home sales up BIG 13% 1.424M vs est. 1.225M vs prior 1.260M.
Yesterday, bond yields hit a 5 week low, todays trifecta of reports threw the bond market a curve, as growth and inflation fears sparked a consolidation in bonds.
Todays, SOOHEY, PIG, PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
10 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 8 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 7 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 6 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
5 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 4 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 2 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. Last week, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Mon, DJIA -40, a broad based sell off on vapid internals. Today, DJIA -3 on improved internals. This week DJIA -43 , over the last 10 weeks DJIA +183.
DJUA, MID & RUT up, XAU, NDX, NAZ & SOX down. CAC up, DAX up, FTSE up, Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 down.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold down, XOI up & crude down @ 56.09, CRB commodities & bonds down. Contra trend: none.
Sectors: Airlines, Biotech, Gold Bugs, Pharma, Retail, Telecom, High Tech & Semis down. Natural Gas, Commodity, Cyclical & Healthcare up nicely.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.48% & the 30 year @ 4.69. The 2 & 5 year inverted @ 0 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 9 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 21 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, Nov 30: Chain Deflator, GDP, Chicago PMI, Crude Inventories, Fed Beige Book, Dec 1: Truck & Auto Sales, Initial Claims, Personal Income & Spending, Construction Spending, ISM Index, Dec 2: Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment.
Today, crude futures -1.5% & heating oil futures -1.9% hit a 4 month low. This weeks equities pullback is so far directly linked to the energy futures pullback.
The equities market is flirting with the psychological barrier of 11, 000 and has yet to decouple from the underlying commodities market.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, Oct. durable orders had the biggest increase since June 2000 +3.4% vs. est. +1.5% vs. prior -2.4; strong business investment was shown as orders +1.7% ex defense but excluding transportation, just +0.3%.
Consumer confidence is way up at 98.9 vs est. 90.0 vs. prior 85 which was its worst lowest level in two years.
Yesterday, existing home sales declined 3.7% and are at the lowest level since March, today, new home sales up BIG 13% 1.424M vs est. 1.225M vs prior 1.260M.
Yesterday, bond yields hit a 5 week low, todays trifecta of reports threw the bond market a curve, as growth and inflation fears sparked a consolidation in bonds.
Todays, SOOHEY, PIG, PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
10 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 8 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 7 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 6 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
5 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 4 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 2 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. Last week, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Mon, DJIA -40, a broad based sell off on vapid internals. Today, DJIA -3 on improved internals. This week DJIA -43 , over the last 10 weeks DJIA +183.
DJUA, MID & RUT up, XAU, NDX, NAZ & SOX down. CAC up, DAX up, FTSE up, Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 down.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold down, XOI up & crude down @ 56.09, CRB commodities & bonds down. Contra trend: none.
Sectors: Airlines, Biotech, Gold Bugs, Pharma, Retail, Telecom, High Tech & Semis down. Natural Gas, Commodity, Cyclical & Healthcare up nicely.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.48% & the 30 year @ 4.69. The 2 & 5 year inverted @ 0 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 9 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 21 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, Nov 30: Chain Deflator, GDP, Chicago PMI, Crude Inventories, Fed Beige Book, Dec 1: Truck & Auto Sales, Initial Claims, Personal Income & Spending, Construction Spending, ISM Index, Dec 2: Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment.
Today, crude futures -1.5% & heating oil futures -1.9% hit a 4 month low. This weeks equities pullback is so far directly linked to the energy futures pullback.
The equities market is flirting with the psychological barrier of 11, 000 and has yet to decouple from the underlying commodities market.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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