Market Soapbox 11/30/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1275; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1700
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, Nov. Chicago PMI @ 61.7 vs est. 60.0, still suggesting strong manufacturing trends. The prices paid component spiked 18% to its highest level in 18 years. Inflation anyone? More later...
Q3 GDP +4.3%, vs est. +4.0% vs +3.8% preliminary reading, the price deflator was revised slightly lower. The revision did not offset the effect of the prices paid component spike in the Chicago PMI.
S&P's Ratings Services said Tuesday it could lower Ford Motor's credit rating by more than one notch, below its current "junk status," following Q4 results.
Fed Beige Book comments of note: "increased hiring is leaving 'signs of tightening' in the labor market and modest upward pressure on wages." Remember, less slack means any increase in demand will generate inflation.
Todays, SOOHEY, PIG, PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
10 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 8 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 7 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 6 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
5 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 4 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 2 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. Last week, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Mon, DJIA -40, a broad based sell off on vapid internals. Tues, DJIA -3, Today, out the gate to the upside fast, then a head on with a train, DJIA -82 crashing into the close on higher volume with poor internals. This week DJIA -125 , over the last 10 weeks DJIA +101.
RUT & SOX up nicely as small caps and tech tried to stay afloat, XAU, SP500 & DJUA pounded down. CAC down, DAX down, FTSE down, Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 up.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold down, XOI down & crude up @ 57.38, CRB commodities up & bonds down.
Sectors: Airlines, Gold Bugs, Pharma, Telecom, Retail, Finance, Securities Broker, Utilities, Consumer, Healthcare, Real Estate, REIT's & Banking pounded down. Tranports, Oil Services, Biotech & Semis up nicely.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.48% & the 30 year @ 4.69. The 2 & 5 year inverted @ 0 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 21 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, Dec 1: Truck & Auto Sales, Initial Claims, Personal Income & Spending, Construction Spending, ISM Index, Dec 2: Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment.
Recent reports are showing robust manufacturing and today's Chicago PMI showed increased costs in the Chicago region.
This sparked interest rate fears resulting in a sell off in bonds, and interest rate sensitive sectors such as financial, real estate, REIT's and utilities.
Tomorrows ISM report will show increased costs at a national level. This will further spook the market with inflation fears.
Interesting codicil, todays interest rate fears did not damage the small caps. Aren't higher borrowing costs bad for small caps? Sniff, Sniff.
Look at the chart pattern from May on most indices, May UP, June DOWN, July UP, Aug DOWN, Sept UP, Oct DOWN, Nov UP, guess whats next for Dec??? Could it be DOWN? Lets see.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong... This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, Nov. Chicago PMI @ 61.7 vs est. 60.0, still suggesting strong manufacturing trends. The prices paid component spiked 18% to its highest level in 18 years. Inflation anyone? More later...
Q3 GDP +4.3%, vs est. +4.0% vs +3.8% preliminary reading, the price deflator was revised slightly lower. The revision did not offset the effect of the prices paid component spike in the Chicago PMI.
S&P's Ratings Services said Tuesday it could lower Ford Motor's credit rating by more than one notch, below its current "junk status," following Q4 results.
Fed Beige Book comments of note: "increased hiring is leaving 'signs of tightening' in the labor market and modest upward pressure on wages." Remember, less slack means any increase in demand will generate inflation.
Todays, SOOHEY, PIG, PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
10 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 8 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 7 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 6 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
5 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 4 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 2 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. Last week, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Mon, DJIA -40, a broad based sell off on vapid internals. Tues, DJIA -3, Today, out the gate to the upside fast, then a head on with a train, DJIA -82 crashing into the close on higher volume with poor internals. This week DJIA -125 , over the last 10 weeks DJIA +101.
RUT & SOX up nicely as small caps and tech tried to stay afloat, XAU, SP500 & DJUA pounded down. CAC down, DAX down, FTSE down, Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 up.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold down, XOI down & crude up @ 57.38, CRB commodities up & bonds down.
Sectors: Airlines, Gold Bugs, Pharma, Telecom, Retail, Finance, Securities Broker, Utilities, Consumer, Healthcare, Real Estate, REIT's & Banking pounded down. Tranports, Oil Services, Biotech & Semis up nicely.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.48% & the 30 year @ 4.69. The 2 & 5 year inverted @ 0 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 21 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, Dec 1: Truck & Auto Sales, Initial Claims, Personal Income & Spending, Construction Spending, ISM Index, Dec 2: Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment.
Recent reports are showing robust manufacturing and today's Chicago PMI showed increased costs in the Chicago region.
This sparked interest rate fears resulting in a sell off in bonds, and interest rate sensitive sectors such as financial, real estate, REIT's and utilities.
Tomorrows ISM report will show increased costs at a national level. This will further spook the market with inflation fears.
Interesting codicil, todays interest rate fears did not damage the small caps. Aren't higher borrowing costs bad for small caps? Sniff, Sniff.
Look at the chart pattern from May on most indices, May UP, June DOWN, July UP, Aug DOWN, Sept UP, Oct DOWN, Nov UP, guess whats next for Dec??? Could it be DOWN? Lets see.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong... This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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