Market Soapbox 12/02/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2300; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10800 ; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1670
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, non farms payroll at +215K vs est. +210K vs., prior +44K, unemployment at 5% vs. est & prior 5%.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
10 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 8 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 7 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 6 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
5 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 4 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 2 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. Last week, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Mon, DJIA -40, a broad based sell off on vapid internals. Tues, DJIA -3, Wen, DJIA -82 crashing into the close. Thurs. broadbased rally with AUTHORITY DJIA +107.
Today, a split tape profit taking day, DJIA - 35 on tepid internals and lower volume. This week DJIA -53 , over the last 10 weeks DJIA +173.
SOX & tech trying to lead up, MID & RUT weak, XAU & DJTA notably down. CAC up, DAX up, FTSE up, Hang Seng up & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar up vs. Euro 1.1726 & Yen 120.21, XAU down & gold up, XOI & crude up 1.45% @ 59.32, CRB commodities up & bonds flat. Contra trend: $ up, with gold & oil & commodities.
Sectors: Airlines, Pharma & Semis up nicely. Gold Bugs, Biotech, Telecom, Transports, Retail, Banking, Healthcare REIT's & Cyclical down.
Bonds flat with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.51% & the 30 year @ 4.71. The 2 & 5 year @ 1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 20 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 5; ISM Services, Dec. 6; Productivity, Factory Orders, Dec 7; Options Unwind, 5 yr auction, Crude inventories, Consumer Credit, Dec 8; 10 yr auction, Initial Claims, Dec 9; Michigan Sentiment, Wholesale Inventories.
Yesterday: "The SOX up 4.2% today, hitting a 3.5 year high." Error, Error, Danger Will Robinson... The SOX was up 4.2% and at a 1.5 year high, not since 4/15/04 had it seen this level.
In the last two weeks, all major indices have hit YTD or multi year highs, the MID & RUT (today) hit all time highs.
On the larger mountain climb which started, 10/10/02, we are on a leg up that began 10/13/05. Everyone is now up above the clouds at the next level, where will they go next?
We suspect a pop up Mon, Tues, then another small pullback on our way up. Wen and Thurs options unwind and treasury auctions. We are keeping an eye on the NDX to possibly rise to 1745 - 1750 to complete the near term up cycle.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10800 ; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1670
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, non farms payroll at +215K vs est. +210K vs., prior +44K, unemployment at 5% vs. est & prior 5%.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
10 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 8 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 7 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 6 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
5 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 4 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 2 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. Last week, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Mon, DJIA -40, a broad based sell off on vapid internals. Tues, DJIA -3, Wen, DJIA -82 crashing into the close. Thurs. broadbased rally with AUTHORITY DJIA +107.
Today, a split tape profit taking day, DJIA - 35 on tepid internals and lower volume. This week DJIA -53 , over the last 10 weeks DJIA +173.
SOX & tech trying to lead up, MID & RUT weak, XAU & DJTA notably down. CAC up, DAX up, FTSE up, Hang Seng up & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar up vs. Euro 1.1726 & Yen 120.21, XAU down & gold up, XOI & crude up 1.45% @ 59.32, CRB commodities up & bonds flat. Contra trend: $ up, with gold & oil & commodities.
Sectors: Airlines, Pharma & Semis up nicely. Gold Bugs, Biotech, Telecom, Transports, Retail, Banking, Healthcare REIT's & Cyclical down.
Bonds flat with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.51% & the 30 year @ 4.71. The 2 & 5 year @ 1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 20 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 5; ISM Services, Dec. 6; Productivity, Factory Orders, Dec 7; Options Unwind, 5 yr auction, Crude inventories, Consumer Credit, Dec 8; 10 yr auction, Initial Claims, Dec 9; Michigan Sentiment, Wholesale Inventories.
Yesterday: "The SOX up 4.2% today, hitting a 3.5 year high." Error, Error, Danger Will Robinson... The SOX was up 4.2% and at a 1.5 year high, not since 4/15/04 had it seen this level.
In the last two weeks, all major indices have hit YTD or multi year highs, the MID & RUT (today) hit all time highs.
On the larger mountain climb which started, 10/10/02, we are on a leg up that began 10/13/05. Everyone is now up above the clouds at the next level, where will they go next?
We suspect a pop up Mon, Tues, then another small pullback on our way up. Wen and Thurs options unwind and treasury auctions. We are keeping an eye on the NDX to possibly rise to 1745 - 1750 to complete the near term up cycle.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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