Market Soapbox 12/05/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2300; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10800 ; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1670
In our top story tonight, ISM index at 58.5 vs est. 59 vs prior 60, prices paid at 74.2 vs prior 78, showing continued services growth at a slower pace and lowered energy costs on inputs.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
11 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 9 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 8 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 7 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
6 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 5 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 3 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 2 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Last week DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. Today, a tech pullback and profit taking day, DJIA - 42 on lousy internals and lower volume. Over the last 11 weeks DJIA +131.
DJUA, XOI & XAU up, MID & RUT beat down, SOX, NDX & DJTA punked. CAC, DAX, FTSE & Hang Seng down, Nikkei 225 up nicely.
Dollar down vs. Euro 1.1805 & up vs. Yen 120.55, XAU & gold up 508.9, XOI & crude up 1% @ 59.91, CRB commodities up & bonds down. Contra trend: none.
Sectors: Energy, Oil, Utilities, Natural Gas, Healthcare, Gold Bugs, Biotech, Securities Brokers, Healthcare REIT's & Materials up. Tech, Semis, Wireless, Retail, Airlines, Transports, Real Estate & REIT's getting punked.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.56% & the 30 year @ 4.76. The 2 & 5 year @ 3 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 20 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec. 6; Productivity, Factory Orders, Dec 7; Options Unwind, 5 yr auction, Crude inventories, Consumer Credit, Dec 8; 10 yr auction, Initial Claims, Dec 9; Michigan Sentiment, Wholesale Inventories.
From Friday: "We suspect a pop up Mon, Tues, then another small pullback on our way up." Perhaps we will see the inverse as It appears options unwind started a day or two early with equities and bonds selling off.
Today's market action was not healthy, as crude futures and the energy sector were up 1% while the broader market fell. This is what the market should do under normal circumstances, but this is counter to what the market has been doing of late. Are we seeing a decoupling?? Doubtful, but warrants closer observation.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10800 ; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1670
In our top story tonight, ISM index at 58.5 vs est. 59 vs prior 60, prices paid at 74.2 vs prior 78, showing continued services growth at a slower pace and lowered energy costs on inputs.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
11 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 9 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 8 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 7 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
6 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 5 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 3 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 2 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Last week DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. Today, a tech pullback and profit taking day, DJIA - 42 on lousy internals and lower volume. Over the last 11 weeks DJIA +131.
DJUA, XOI & XAU up, MID & RUT beat down, SOX, NDX & DJTA punked. CAC, DAX, FTSE & Hang Seng down, Nikkei 225 up nicely.
Dollar down vs. Euro 1.1805 & up vs. Yen 120.55, XAU & gold up 508.9, XOI & crude up 1% @ 59.91, CRB commodities up & bonds down. Contra trend: none.
Sectors: Energy, Oil, Utilities, Natural Gas, Healthcare, Gold Bugs, Biotech, Securities Brokers, Healthcare REIT's & Materials up. Tech, Semis, Wireless, Retail, Airlines, Transports, Real Estate & REIT's getting punked.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.56% & the 30 year @ 4.76. The 2 & 5 year @ 3 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 20 basis points.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec. 6; Productivity, Factory Orders, Dec 7; Options Unwind, 5 yr auction, Crude inventories, Consumer Credit, Dec 8; 10 yr auction, Initial Claims, Dec 9; Michigan Sentiment, Wholesale Inventories.
From Friday: "We suspect a pop up Mon, Tues, then another small pullback on our way up." Perhaps we will see the inverse as It appears options unwind started a day or two early with equities and bonds selling off.
Today's market action was not healthy, as crude futures and the energy sector were up 1% while the broader market fell. This is what the market should do under normal circumstances, but this is counter to what the market has been doing of late. Are we seeing a decoupling?? Doubtful, but warrants closer observation.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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