Market Soapbox 12/08/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2300; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, today is the day after "a date which will live in infamy", Pearl Harbor Day. Initial Jobless Claims +6K to 327K vs est. 318K putting the stats on track for a non farm payrolls of 185K.
The 10 year note auction bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.19, well below the average of 2.51 seen in the prior three 10 year note reopening auctions.
$8 Billion in notes were sold at a high yield of 4.490. However, foreign demand fell, with indirect bidders taking only 17% of the notes, a major disappointment.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to the financial and lending institutions who lobbied and pushed through the new one sided and draconian bankruptcy laws. In the long term, the new law will save the credit card and lending sector money, but in the short run, they are taking some major hits.
Seems they expected a rush of consumers trying to beat the bankruptcy deadline, but nothing like the surge that actually occurred.
More than 500,000 bankruptcy cases were filed in the two weeks before the law took effect, compared with a normal weekly volume of 30,000 to 35,000. So far this year more than 2 million cases have been filed, 49% more than the same period last year and eclipsing all previous records.
11 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 9 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 8 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 7 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
6 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 5 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 3 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 2 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Last week DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. Mon, a profit taking day, DJIA - 42. Tues up & down DJIA +22. Wend, DJIA -46 a broadbased consolidation. Today, DJIA -56 on lower volume and sickly internals. This week, DJIA -122, over the last 12 weeks DJIA +51.
XAU, XOI & DJUA up BIG, MID & RUT weak but trying to lead, DJTA, NDX & SOX beat down. CAC, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down BIG.
Dollar down vs. Euro & Yen , XAU & gold up , XOI & crude up 2.5% @ 60.70, CRB commodities up. Contra trend: None. I don't think I will mention the $ & gold contra trend, as it seems gold has decoupled from the dollar. I wish oil futures would decouple from equities.
Bonds up with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.46% & the 30 year @ 4.67. The 2 & 5 year @ 1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 10 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 21 basis points.
Sectors: Energy, Healthcare REIT's, Commodity, Healthcare, Pharma, Tobacco, Biotech, Gold Bugs, Oil Services & Utilities up. Tech, Telecom, Airlines, Transports & Semis getting hammered down like cheap nails.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 9; Michigan Sentiment, Wholesale Inventories.
Yesterday: "We keep making new highs but the market is losing traction the last 8 trading days. Perhaps the January correction might come early due to the elephants clearing their positions before year end?"
Regarding near term support 10 & 20 DMA, yesterday and today, the MID, RUT, SOX, NAZ & NDX are resting on, the DJIA, DJUA, DJTA & SP500 dipped below, and the RTH, HGX & RKH have fallen through.
For clues to direction, we are observing the NDX trading range of 1665 to 1745 and the XAU & XOI divergence from the overall market direction. We could be witnessing what will develop into a choppy correctional finish to December.
The last nine trading days, the market weakened and we seem to be skimming along and forming a top. This may also be a short term correctional plateau prior to another rise to the upside, for this we need impetus and conviction.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, today is the day after "a date which will live in infamy", Pearl Harbor Day. Initial Jobless Claims +6K to 327K vs est. 318K putting the stats on track for a non farm payrolls of 185K.
The 10 year note auction bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.19, well below the average of 2.51 seen in the prior three 10 year note reopening auctions.
$8 Billion in notes were sold at a high yield of 4.490. However, foreign demand fell, with indirect bidders taking only 17% of the notes, a major disappointment.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to the financial and lending institutions who lobbied and pushed through the new one sided and draconian bankruptcy laws. In the long term, the new law will save the credit card and lending sector money, but in the short run, they are taking some major hits.
Seems they expected a rush of consumers trying to beat the bankruptcy deadline, but nothing like the surge that actually occurred.
More than 500,000 bankruptcy cases were filed in the two weeks before the law took effect, compared with a normal weekly volume of 30,000 to 35,000. So far this year more than 2 million cases have been filed, 49% more than the same period last year and eclipsing all previous records.
11 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 9 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 8 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 7 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
6 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 5 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 3 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 2 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Last week DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. Mon, a profit taking day, DJIA - 42. Tues up & down DJIA +22. Wend, DJIA -46 a broadbased consolidation. Today, DJIA -56 on lower volume and sickly internals. This week, DJIA -122, over the last 12 weeks DJIA +51.
XAU, XOI & DJUA up BIG, MID & RUT weak but trying to lead, DJTA, NDX & SOX beat down. CAC, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down BIG.
Dollar down vs. Euro & Yen , XAU & gold up , XOI & crude up 2.5% @ 60.70, CRB commodities up. Contra trend: None. I don't think I will mention the $ & gold contra trend, as it seems gold has decoupled from the dollar. I wish oil futures would decouple from equities.
Bonds up with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.46% & the 30 year @ 4.67. The 2 & 5 year @ 1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 10 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 21 basis points.
Sectors: Energy, Healthcare REIT's, Commodity, Healthcare, Pharma, Tobacco, Biotech, Gold Bugs, Oil Services & Utilities up. Tech, Telecom, Airlines, Transports & Semis getting hammered down like cheap nails.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 9; Michigan Sentiment, Wholesale Inventories.
Yesterday: "We keep making new highs but the market is losing traction the last 8 trading days. Perhaps the January correction might come early due to the elephants clearing their positions before year end?"
Regarding near term support 10 & 20 DMA, yesterday and today, the MID, RUT, SOX, NAZ & NDX are resting on, the DJIA, DJUA, DJTA & SP500 dipped below, and the RTH, HGX & RKH have fallen through.
For clues to direction, we are observing the NDX trading range of 1665 to 1745 and the XAU & XOI divergence from the overall market direction. We could be witnessing what will develop into a choppy correctional finish to December.
The last nine trading days, the market weakened and we seem to be skimming along and forming a top. This may also be a short term correctional plateau prior to another rise to the upside, for this we need impetus and conviction.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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