Market Soapbox 12/09/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2300; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news... the consumer is in an up mood as gasoline prices have fallen, the hurricane rebuild is ongoing and economic news is improving. This was reflected in Michigan Sentiment @ 88.7 vs prior 81.6 vs prior 74.2.
However, holiday retail sales numbers do not correlate as sales are down, reflecting a downturn in consumer discretionary spending due to higher energy costs over the year.
Further evidence of a consumer pullback in big ticket items was found in the Wholesale Inventories report @ +0.2% vs est. +0.5% vs prior +0.6%. Deceleration is sales at wholesalers +1.2% vs prior +2.4% which was their largest rise since March 2004.
Inventory to sales ratio fell to 1.13 months' in October, a record low, after hitting 1.15 percent in September. This shows very little slack and is a reading that could point to (in the event of increased demand) ramped up production and inflation pressure down the road.
Of note: durable goods, meant to last three years or more, +0.9%; automotive inventories +1.9%, lumber inventories +2.7%; showing a reduction in big ticket consumer spending, and a pullback in home construction materials demand.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
11 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 9 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 8 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 7 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
6 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 5 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 3 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 2 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Last week DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. Mon, a profit taking day, DJIA - 42. Tues up & down DJIA +22. Wend, DJIA -46 a broadbased consolidation. Thurs, DJIA -56 with sickly internals.
Today, DJIA +23 on lower volume with improved internals. This week, DJIA -99, making two straight down weeks and over the last 12 weeks DJIA +74.
DJUA, SOX, RUT & MID up, XAU & XOI beat down. CAC, DAX & FTSE down, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up.
Dollar down vs. Euro & up vs. Yen , XAU down & gold up BIG 1.4% @ 528, XOI & crude down BIG -2% @ 59.39, CRB commodities down. Contra trend: $ & Oil down.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.53% & the 30 year @ 4.73. The 2 & 5 year @ 2 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 10 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 20 basis points.
Sectors: Telecom, Utilities, Healthcare, Finance, Banking & Semis up nicely. Airlines, Biotech, Gold Bugs, Natural Gas, Oil, Energy & Commodity beat down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 12 Treasury Budget; Dec 13 Retail Sales, ex auto, Business Inventories, FOMC announcement; Dec 14 EIA Crude Inventories, Trade Balance, Import ex-oil & Export ex-ag Prices; Dec 15 CPI, Initial Claims, NY Empire Index, Net Foreign Purchases, Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production; Dec 16 Current Account.
Yesterday, the dollar hit a multi year high against the Euro & Yen. The yen was trading Friday at a seven year low against the pound, near an 8 1/2 year low against the Australian dollar and a 13 year low trough against the Canadian dollar.
And the OSX Philly Oil Services Index hit an all time high. YTD Utilities +12%; Within Energy +36%: Refiners +83%; Explorers +66%; Drillers +55%.
From yesterday: "I wish the market would decouple from crude oil futures.... several indices are resting on, have dipped through or fallen through near term support."
Today the energy sector pulled back 1.2% as crude futures were down 2%, and the XAU (despite an intraday gold high of $534) & the XOI pulled back bigtime. Meanwhile, the broader market diverged from the energy sector as the market found some near term support at 30 DMA, is Santa listening perchance?
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news... the consumer is in an up mood as gasoline prices have fallen, the hurricane rebuild is ongoing and economic news is improving. This was reflected in Michigan Sentiment @ 88.7 vs prior 81.6 vs prior 74.2.
However, holiday retail sales numbers do not correlate as sales are down, reflecting a downturn in consumer discretionary spending due to higher energy costs over the year.
Further evidence of a consumer pullback in big ticket items was found in the Wholesale Inventories report @ +0.2% vs est. +0.5% vs prior +0.6%. Deceleration is sales at wholesalers +1.2% vs prior +2.4% which was their largest rise since March 2004.
Inventory to sales ratio fell to 1.13 months' in October, a record low, after hitting 1.15 percent in September. This shows very little slack and is a reading that could point to (in the event of increased demand) ramped up production and inflation pressure down the road.
Of note: durable goods, meant to last three years or more, +0.9%; automotive inventories +1.9%, lumber inventories +2.7%; showing a reduction in big ticket consumer spending, and a pullback in home construction materials demand.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
11 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 9 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 8 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 7 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
6 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 5 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 3 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 2 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
Last week DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. Mon, a profit taking day, DJIA - 42. Tues up & down DJIA +22. Wend, DJIA -46 a broadbased consolidation. Thurs, DJIA -56 with sickly internals.
Today, DJIA +23 on lower volume with improved internals. This week, DJIA -99, making two straight down weeks and over the last 12 weeks DJIA +74.
DJUA, SOX, RUT & MID up, XAU & XOI beat down. CAC, DAX & FTSE down, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up.
Dollar down vs. Euro & up vs. Yen , XAU down & gold up BIG 1.4% @ 528, XOI & crude down BIG -2% @ 59.39, CRB commodities down. Contra trend: $ & Oil down.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.53% & the 30 year @ 4.73. The 2 & 5 year @ 2 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 10 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 20 basis points.
Sectors: Telecom, Utilities, Healthcare, Finance, Banking & Semis up nicely. Airlines, Biotech, Gold Bugs, Natural Gas, Oil, Energy & Commodity beat down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 12 Treasury Budget; Dec 13 Retail Sales, ex auto, Business Inventories, FOMC announcement; Dec 14 EIA Crude Inventories, Trade Balance, Import ex-oil & Export ex-ag Prices; Dec 15 CPI, Initial Claims, NY Empire Index, Net Foreign Purchases, Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production; Dec 16 Current Account.
Yesterday, the dollar hit a multi year high against the Euro & Yen. The yen was trading Friday at a seven year low against the pound, near an 8 1/2 year low against the Australian dollar and a 13 year low trough against the Canadian dollar.
And the OSX Philly Oil Services Index hit an all time high. YTD Utilities +12%; Within Energy +36%: Refiners +83%; Explorers +66%; Drillers +55%.
From yesterday: "I wish the market would decouple from crude oil futures.... several indices are resting on, have dipped through or fallen through near term support."
Today the energy sector pulled back 1.2% as crude futures were down 2%, and the XAU (despite an intraday gold high of $534) & the XOI pulled back bigtime. Meanwhile, the broader market diverged from the energy sector as the market found some near term support at 30 DMA, is Santa listening perchance?
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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