Economic Reports 05/08/07
Summary: Media spin "inventories up less than expected"... a reality check reveals the cancer of a non durable economic state has metastasized ...
Meanwhile the bloated carcass of conspicuous consumerism is slowly being pulled under by the ball and chain of rampant speculation, oversupply and stagflation.
Wholesale Inventories Mar +0.3% vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: led by petroleum inventories +3.1%; Feb increase revised down from 0.5% to 0.4%.
Inventories: Yoy +8.1%. Durable goods 0.0% vs prior +0.1%; Yoy +7.6%. Non durable goods +0.8% vs prior +1%; Yoy +9%.
Select Inventories: Furniture +2.1%; Yoy +11.4%. Professional & Commercial Equipment +0.4%; Yoy +11.4%. Machinery, Equipment & Supplies -1.3%, Yoy +9.1%. Metals ex-Petroleum -0.4%; Yoy +23.8%
Total sales +1.8% vs prior +1%; Yoy +8.4%. Sales: Durable goods +2.1% vs prior 0.8%; Yoy +6.6%. Non durable goods +1.5% vs prior +2.8%; Yoy +10.1%
Select Sales: computer equipment +6.1%, Yoy +10.9%; lumber +5.9%, Yoy -13.7%.
Good news? Total dollar sales are outstriping total inventories values, but under the sheets it aint a pretty sight.... Lumber and computer sales were up, however...
Computer equipment sales jumped on massive price reductions due to a channel stuffing induced inventory glut, thus cutting razor thin profit margins to shreads.
Meanwhile, the Yoy number deceives... YTD computer sales +8%; inventories +11%.
Lumber sales jumped for the same reasons as above, and the "house" of horrors continues to build as YTD lumber and construction materials sales are down -18% vs 2006.
Bad news: Yoy durable goods inventories building much faster than sales. YTD seasonally adjusted 07 vs 06; inventories +8.2%; sales +5.4%.
Non durable goods sales are barely treading water with YTD inventories +8.6% and sales +8.5%
Inventory levels for durable economic activity items (manufacturing, construction & cap-ex) are in a double digit bloat, which indicates a stagnant and contracting economy.
Oversupply in such a market could burst certain (metals & minerals; housing) speculative bubbles. And finally.... Farm product raw materials Yoy Sales +26.3%; Inventories +41.1%.
PHYSICAL inventory and actual food consumption is NOT up this much, if it was...
Our junk food & obesity induced national health crisis would go from absurd to obscene, while food sat rotting in silos for lack of transport and millions starved elsewhere... wait, isn't that what is happening??? I digress...
These numbers reflect price increases, not volumes of product... and those price increases get passed on to the buying public.
Hint... this is stagflation in its full blown glory and once again demonstrates exactly what the CPI and PPI statistical connivance's attempt to, but cannot hide....
that the REAL inflation rate is at least half the "sales" increase i.e. +13%.
Meanwhile the bloated carcass of conspicuous consumerism is slowly being pulled under by the ball and chain of rampant speculation, oversupply and stagflation.
Wholesale Inventories Mar +0.3% vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: led by petroleum inventories +3.1%; Feb increase revised down from 0.5% to 0.4%.
Inventories: Yoy +8.1%. Durable goods 0.0% vs prior +0.1%; Yoy +7.6%. Non durable goods +0.8% vs prior +1%; Yoy +9%.
Select Inventories: Furniture +2.1%; Yoy +11.4%. Professional & Commercial Equipment +0.4%; Yoy +11.4%. Machinery, Equipment & Supplies -1.3%, Yoy +9.1%. Metals ex-Petroleum -0.4%; Yoy +23.8%
Total sales +1.8% vs prior +1%; Yoy +8.4%. Sales: Durable goods +2.1% vs prior 0.8%; Yoy +6.6%. Non durable goods +1.5% vs prior +2.8%; Yoy +10.1%
Select Sales: computer equipment +6.1%, Yoy +10.9%; lumber +5.9%, Yoy -13.7%.
Good news? Total dollar sales are outstriping total inventories values, but under the sheets it aint a pretty sight.... Lumber and computer sales were up, however...
Computer equipment sales jumped on massive price reductions due to a channel stuffing induced inventory glut, thus cutting razor thin profit margins to shreads.
Meanwhile, the Yoy number deceives... YTD computer sales +8%; inventories +11%.
Lumber sales jumped for the same reasons as above, and the "house" of horrors continues to build as YTD lumber and construction materials sales are down -18% vs 2006.
Bad news: Yoy durable goods inventories building much faster than sales. YTD seasonally adjusted 07 vs 06; inventories +8.2%; sales +5.4%.
Non durable goods sales are barely treading water with YTD inventories +8.6% and sales +8.5%
Inventory levels for durable economic activity items (manufacturing, construction & cap-ex) are in a double digit bloat, which indicates a stagnant and contracting economy.
Oversupply in such a market could burst certain (metals & minerals; housing) speculative bubbles. And finally.... Farm product raw materials Yoy Sales +26.3%; Inventories +41.1%.
PHYSICAL inventory and actual food consumption is NOT up this much, if it was...
Our junk food & obesity induced national health crisis would go from absurd to obscene, while food sat rotting in silos for lack of transport and millions starved elsewhere... wait, isn't that what is happening??? I digress...
These numbers reflect price increases, not volumes of product... and those price increases get passed on to the buying public.
Hint... this is stagflation in its full blown glory and once again demonstrates exactly what the CPI and PPI statistical connivance's attempt to, but cannot hide....
that the REAL inflation rate is at least half the "sales" increase i.e. +13%.
Comments