Economic Reports 05/10/07
Summary: Less foreign interest in our long bonds... retail sales taking a record plunge... ECB on hold but will raise in June... BOE raised...
Unemployment pernicious as continuing claims mount... Trade Deficit revealing that Q1 GDP will be under 1%...
Imported consumer goods prices rising at the fastest rate in 11 years... vigilance against inflation?
Oh yes brothers, import & export prices proving that our stagflation rate is officially in double digits.
If you want and can handle the truth, read on brothers and sistas...
Bond Auction: Today's $5B 30 year results... bid to cover dropped from 2.46 to 1.97... indirect bidder participation dropped from 42% to 10%... yet bonds were up on the day.
Retail Sales: 80% of the largest 60 retailers also reported shortfalls as U.S. retailers posted the biggest sales decline on record last month.
The monthly decline was the largest since the ICSC started keeping records in 1970.
Wal Mart April same store sales -4.6%, Federated -2.2% Target -6%, The Gap -16%, but Costco +7% (faithful members with MONEY).
As The Nattering One has said... as John Q continues to get his cajones squeezed, expect more of the same and lowered forward guidance.
ECB & BOE policy statements
ECB unchanged as expected at 3.75%. Trichet on script, talking out the side of his mouth and signaling a June increase....
"Global economic growth... moderating somewhat in recent quarters... medium-term horizon, the outlook for price developments remains subject to upside risks."
"The increasingly rapid growth of M3, which in March reached an annual rate of 10.9%, as well as in the ongoing high levels of credit growth."
"At longer horizons, the balance of risks remains on the downside... factors include fears of a rise in protectionist pressures, the possibility of further increases in oil prices and concerns about possible disorderly developments due to global imbalances."
Bank Of England to the point, with a stiff upper lip, raising .25 as expected to 6 year high at 5.5%.
"indicators of consumer spending have been volatile... risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term consequently remain tilted to the upside."
Initial Claims 05/05 -9K to 297K Full Report
Inside the number: prior 305K revised up 1K to 306K. 4th straight decline with 4 week MA -11.5K to 317.25K.
Under the soiled knickers... unadjusted claims increased 5.8K and unemployment is still pernicious...
as continuing claims still growing +65K to 2.55M and 4 week MA +7.75K to 2.54M.
Trade Deficit Mar (-$63.9B) vs prior (-$58.4B) Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised down from (-$58.4B) to (-$57.9B); this month a 10% increase on higher energy costs, the 2nd highest deficit on record.
Q1 deficit totaled $180.7B, smaller than $191.6B in Q106 when the annual deficit hit a record $765.3B.
Imports +$7.8 B, Exports +$1.8 B as the STAGFLATION gets magnified.
Under the sheets... sequentially Q1 shows capital goods imports have shrunk 1.6% in current dollars, annualized -6.4%.
However in Chained 2000 $'s Q1 Yoy Capital goods +7.3%; Consumer Goods +9.7%. Chained $'s also reveals a pullback in Automotive and Industrial Supply Imports.
Monthly: Civilian aircraft exports -$1.236 B, Computers -$235 M, Computer accessories -$80 M. YTD exports: Computer Accessories -$1.023 B, Metalworking Machine Tools -$633 M.
On the other hand... we haven't flatlined quite yet: Industrial Machines +$1.061B, Drilling & Oil Field Equipment +$1.357B.
YTD imports... housing pullback... Iron & Steel Mill Products -$459M, Shingles & Wallboard -$769M, Lumber -$811M.
Demonstrating labor at the margin... Computers +$2.225B, Industrial Machines +$1.256B.
Worse yet... the trade "drag" on GDP increased beyond estimates, Q4 GDP 2.5%; Q1 GDP will sink from estimated 1.3% to a range of 0.5% to 0.8%.
The Nattering One feels a rise and leers aft to see the stern of the ship (which has already been flipped over on its side) beginning to vanish from the horizon....
The tea leaves say... Q2 ZERO GROWTH, Q3 NEGATIVE GDP, October FED rate cut coupled with BOJ raise wreaks havoc on carry trade and tips the markets.
Total Import Prices +1.3% vs prior +1.5%. Full Report
Inside the number: Petroleum prices +6.5% on top of +8.1% in March. Import Prices ex-oil Apr +0.2% vs prior +0.3%.
Its getting better all the time, so just keep surfing the net and don't eat... foods +1.4% and computers -1.8%, causing the largest decline in capital goods prices since July 1999.
And since we're using less of them... Industrial supplies and materials +0.9%, just a hint of stagflation ya think?
I say Brother and sistas, repeat the mantra, My name is Benny and inflation is tame:
Yoy Industrial Supplies & Materials (durable)+11.1%; ex petroleum +9.1%; unfinished metals (durable) +26%.
Better hope the remaining 65% of domesticated bees doesn't die off... Vegetables up +10.1%, pushing Foods, Feeds & Beverages +1.4%...
Adding insult to injury... you pay more to eat and can't even have a drink... Yoy Food & Feed ex beverages +10.7%.
Oh yes, I feel your pain brethren, now repeat the mantra for exports as well... Export prices have now risen 6 months in a row...
Total Export Prices +0.3% vs prior +0.6%, Export Prices ex-ag. Apr +0.4% vs prior 0.6%.
Sing loud and proud... Yoy Industrial supplies & materials (durable) +16.2% and non ag supplies & materials (ex fuels & building materials) +11.4%.
Hallelujah, let us praise that vigilance against inflation so we can feed our overseas brethren...
Yoy Food & Feeds ex bev +21.6%, blame it partially on corn ethanol speculation Yoy corn +39.5%. But its not just agricultural foods.... non ag. foods +9.9%.
Anyone who thinks, believes or represents that our stagflation rate is below double digits is one of two things: a fool or a liar.
Unemployment pernicious as continuing claims mount... Trade Deficit revealing that Q1 GDP will be under 1%...
Imported consumer goods prices rising at the fastest rate in 11 years... vigilance against inflation?
Oh yes brothers, import & export prices proving that our stagflation rate is officially in double digits.
If you want and can handle the truth, read on brothers and sistas...
Bond Auction: Today's $5B 30 year results... bid to cover dropped from 2.46 to 1.97... indirect bidder participation dropped from 42% to 10%... yet bonds were up on the day.
Retail Sales: 80% of the largest 60 retailers also reported shortfalls as U.S. retailers posted the biggest sales decline on record last month.
The monthly decline was the largest since the ICSC started keeping records in 1970.
Wal Mart April same store sales -4.6%, Federated -2.2% Target -6%, The Gap -16%, but Costco +7% (faithful members with MONEY).
As The Nattering One has said... as John Q continues to get his cajones squeezed, expect more of the same and lowered forward guidance.
ECB & BOE policy statements
ECB unchanged as expected at 3.75%. Trichet on script, talking out the side of his mouth and signaling a June increase....
"Global economic growth... moderating somewhat in recent quarters... medium-term horizon, the outlook for price developments remains subject to upside risks."
"The increasingly rapid growth of M3, which in March reached an annual rate of 10.9%, as well as in the ongoing high levels of credit growth."
"At longer horizons, the balance of risks remains on the downside... factors include fears of a rise in protectionist pressures, the possibility of further increases in oil prices and concerns about possible disorderly developments due to global imbalances."
Bank Of England to the point, with a stiff upper lip, raising .25 as expected to 6 year high at 5.5%.
"indicators of consumer spending have been volatile... risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term consequently remain tilted to the upside."
Initial Claims 05/05 -9K to 297K Full Report
Inside the number: prior 305K revised up 1K to 306K. 4th straight decline with 4 week MA -11.5K to 317.25K.
Under the soiled knickers... unadjusted claims increased 5.8K and unemployment is still pernicious...
as continuing claims still growing +65K to 2.55M and 4 week MA +7.75K to 2.54M.
Trade Deficit Mar (-$63.9B) vs prior (-$58.4B) Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised down from (-$58.4B) to (-$57.9B); this month a 10% increase on higher energy costs, the 2nd highest deficit on record.
Q1 deficit totaled $180.7B, smaller than $191.6B in Q106 when the annual deficit hit a record $765.3B.
Imports +$7.8 B, Exports +$1.8 B as the STAGFLATION gets magnified.
Under the sheets... sequentially Q1 shows capital goods imports have shrunk 1.6% in current dollars, annualized -6.4%.
However in Chained 2000 $'s Q1 Yoy Capital goods +7.3%; Consumer Goods +9.7%. Chained $'s also reveals a pullback in Automotive and Industrial Supply Imports.
Monthly: Civilian aircraft exports -$1.236 B, Computers -$235 M, Computer accessories -$80 M. YTD exports: Computer Accessories -$1.023 B, Metalworking Machine Tools -$633 M.
On the other hand... we haven't flatlined quite yet: Industrial Machines +$1.061B, Drilling & Oil Field Equipment +$1.357B.
YTD imports... housing pullback... Iron & Steel Mill Products -$459M, Shingles & Wallboard -$769M, Lumber -$811M.
Demonstrating labor at the margin... Computers +$2.225B, Industrial Machines +$1.256B.
Worse yet... the trade "drag" on GDP increased beyond estimates, Q4 GDP 2.5%; Q1 GDP will sink from estimated 1.3% to a range of 0.5% to 0.8%.
The Nattering One feels a rise and leers aft to see the stern of the ship (which has already been flipped over on its side) beginning to vanish from the horizon....
The tea leaves say... Q2 ZERO GROWTH, Q3 NEGATIVE GDP, October FED rate cut coupled with BOJ raise wreaks havoc on carry trade and tips the markets.
Total Import Prices +1.3% vs prior +1.5%. Full Report
Inside the number: Petroleum prices +6.5% on top of +8.1% in March. Import Prices ex-oil Apr +0.2% vs prior +0.3%.
Its getting better all the time, so just keep surfing the net and don't eat... foods +1.4% and computers -1.8%, causing the largest decline in capital goods prices since July 1999.
And since we're using less of them... Industrial supplies and materials +0.9%, just a hint of stagflation ya think?
I say Brother and sistas, repeat the mantra, My name is Benny and inflation is tame:
Yoy Industrial Supplies & Materials (durable)+11.1%; ex petroleum +9.1%; unfinished metals (durable) +26%.
Better hope the remaining 65% of domesticated bees doesn't die off... Vegetables up +10.1%, pushing Foods, Feeds & Beverages +1.4%...
Adding insult to injury... you pay more to eat and can't even have a drink... Yoy Food & Feed ex beverages +10.7%.
Oh yes, I feel your pain brethren, now repeat the mantra for exports as well... Export prices have now risen 6 months in a row...
Total Export Prices +0.3% vs prior +0.6%, Export Prices ex-ag. Apr +0.4% vs prior 0.6%.
Sing loud and proud... Yoy Industrial supplies & materials (durable) +16.2% and non ag supplies & materials (ex fuels & building materials) +11.4%.
Hallelujah, let us praise that vigilance against inflation so we can feed our overseas brethren...
Yoy Food & Feeds ex bev +21.6%, blame it partially on corn ethanol speculation Yoy corn +39.5%. But its not just agricultural foods.... non ag. foods +9.9%.
Anyone who thinks, believes or represents that our stagflation rate is below double digits is one of two things: a fool or a liar.
Comments