Market Soapbox 05/08/07

TUE, split tape, DJIA -4 on below average volume with midlin internals. All DOWN cept XOI, MID, NAZ, NDX, DJTA.

Bonds flat 10 yr yield +0 bps 4.63, $ down vs 119.955Y & up vs 1.3544E, WTI crude up 1.3% $62.26, gold down $687.4.

National Association of Realtors lowered their 2007 forecasts, saying existing homes sales will probably fall about 3% this year to 6.29M.

New homes sales will likely fall about 18% to 864K, and housing starts may plunge 19% to 1.46M. The Nattering One thinks the NAR is being way too conservative...

Yesterday, "we sense some options unwind MAX PAIN shake out perhaps Tue or Wen." Today SP500 dropping from 1509 to 1500, then slow rise to close at 1507.

The markets mantra continues: "Ignore the man behind the curtain"... and go parabolic... All indices at all time or multi year highs. Still meeting heavy resistance SOXX at 505 and RUT at 835, watch em both for clues.

The DJIA up 24 for 28, yesterday tying the 24 for 27 record from 1927.... and on a parallel with 1989 Nikkei 225: the DJIA is now 31 for 40.... alrighty then, you've been told...

SP500 knocking on 1510 again; SP500 1520-1530 is the next target. Tomorrows FOMC wording spin is key, bad spin sends SP500 to 1495 level, good spin... up, up and short covering takes over till Fri 18th....

Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!

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