Economic Reports 05/11/07
Summary: Treasury deficit falling... Retail sales plunging 4.7%... Producer level intermediate goods prices stagflated at 12% annual...
Business inventories building while manufacturing sales YTD show where GDP growth could be heading... NEGATIVE.
Treasury Budget Apr +$177.7B vs prior (-96.2 B) Full Report
Inside the number: 2nd highest surplus on record. Fiscal YTD deficit has fallen to (-$80.8 B) vs (-$184.1 B) last year. Enjoy it while you can...
Retail Sales Apr (-0.2%) vs prior +1% Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up from +0.7%; Retail Sales ex-auto Apr FLAT vs prior + 1.1%; ex-auto & gasoline (-0.2%).
Retail sales account for 50% of consumer spending and 66% of final economic demand.
Much like yesterdays same store sames record plunge, today's results are a harbinger of the future.
Building material stores -2.3%, Yoy -6%; department stores -2.1% Yoy -2.6%; general merchandise stores -1.2%; clothing -2%.
The housing piper is silent, the refi ATM dance is done, John Q's conspicuous spending binge is over, and its time to pay up....
Remember these numbers DO NOT take price changes into consideration...
so while stagflation pumps everything up 12%, including revenues, actual sales are even worse than advertised....
The BIG TELL: Seasonally Adjusted Total Retail Sales ex-gasoline down (-0.427%).
Even worse... the unadjusted sequential plunge was 4.7%... better hope it was "bad weather" and this trend does not continue.
PPI Apr +0.7% vs prior +1.0% Full Report
Inside the number: Fantasy Core World PPI Apr 0.0% vs prior 0.0%. Energy +3.4% on gasoline +8.2%; Food +0.4%; Core intermediate goods prices +0.8%.
The BIG TELL: intermediate goods prices +0.9%; accelerating at the fastest rate in a year.
Over the last three months +1.1%; +1%; +0.9% and directly on pace for a 12% annual stagflation rate.
You think 12% is too high? The % change in crude goods Yoy is 11.1%, feel better?
Not good enough, % change Yoy in crude non food goods is only 9.8%, thats not double digits, feel better?
Now read em and weap, Yoy unadjusted % change in price: Fruit & melons +24.2%; Fresh & dry vegetables +26.9%; Eggs +17.8%; Milled Rice +18.4%; Dairy +12.6%; Flour +9.6%.
Thats just a Vegan diet....For Carnivores Only: Processed Chickens +35%; Beef & Veal +11.9%. Feed it: Intermediate foods & feeds +13.6%; Crude foods & feeds +26.7%
Grow it: mixed fertilizer +13.9%; phosphates +36.4%. Smelt it: steel mill products +17.1%; primary non ferrous metals +21.2%. Better yet PULP it: Woodpulp +11.4%; Wastepaper +51.3%.
But remember, life is getting better all the time, so just stay home, surf the net and don't drive or eat...
Why? because computers -22.2%. Housing trainwreckage: lumber -14.6%; building paper & board -14.3%.
Repeat the mantra brethren, my name is Benny and inflation is tame...
yes, expectations are tame due to a phenomenon that Joseph Goebbels tuned up last century...
and Karl Rove's Republican Neo-Cons perfected in this one... tell a lie enough times, and people start to believe it.
Business Inventories Mar (-0.1%) vs prior +0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: Seasonally adjusted but not considering price changes...
Sequentially, Sales +1.4%; Inventories (-0.1%). Interestingly enough... Yoy inventories: general merchandise +3.4%; clothing +9.6%..
Yoy ex auto inventories +3.6%, Yoy Total Sales +3.7%; Inventories +4.8%. So advertised inventories are still building.
Lets see how things are getting digested in the supply chain... Breaking it down by channel Yoy: Manufacturers in trouble; Sales (-0.5%); Inventories +5.7%.
Merchant Wholesalers treading water; Sales +8.4%; Inventories +8.1%. Retailers clearing it out; Sales +4.3%; Inventories +1.5%.
Oh my... the shit stained knickers can be found by digging into this dirty laundry bin with a YTD YOY analysis... thats why the press release doesn't provide one...
but The Nattering One likes his readers to see and smell the ugly truth...
Inventories: Manufacturing +5.7%; Wholesale +8.5%; Retail +2.5%
Sales: Manufacturing (-1.3%); Wholesale +6.9%; Retail +4%
Demonstrating that in Q107 vs Q106 inventory builds are outstipping sales, except in retail where they are struggling to push last years crap out the door.
This explains why manufacturing sales are NEGATIVE and delivery times are growing longer, fewer new orders are coming down from retail and wholesale.
As unemployment mounts, while retail spending slows further and housing prices plunge...
wholesale & retail sales will go negative along with manufacturing and the national GDP.
The question you have to ask yourself is: are there enough life boats and floatation devices on this sinking ship? Do you feel lucky?
Business inventories building while manufacturing sales YTD show where GDP growth could be heading... NEGATIVE.
Treasury Budget Apr +$177.7B vs prior (-96.2 B) Full Report
Inside the number: 2nd highest surplus on record. Fiscal YTD deficit has fallen to (-$80.8 B) vs (-$184.1 B) last year. Enjoy it while you can...
Retail Sales Apr (-0.2%) vs prior +1% Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up from +0.7%; Retail Sales ex-auto Apr FLAT vs prior + 1.1%; ex-auto & gasoline (-0.2%).
Retail sales account for 50% of consumer spending and 66% of final economic demand.
Much like yesterdays same store sames record plunge, today's results are a harbinger of the future.
Building material stores -2.3%, Yoy -6%; department stores -2.1% Yoy -2.6%; general merchandise stores -1.2%; clothing -2%.
The housing piper is silent, the refi ATM dance is done, John Q's conspicuous spending binge is over, and its time to pay up....
Remember these numbers DO NOT take price changes into consideration...
so while stagflation pumps everything up 12%, including revenues, actual sales are even worse than advertised....
The BIG TELL: Seasonally Adjusted Total Retail Sales ex-gasoline down (-0.427%).
Even worse... the unadjusted sequential plunge was 4.7%... better hope it was "bad weather" and this trend does not continue.
PPI Apr +0.7% vs prior +1.0% Full Report
Inside the number: Fantasy Core World PPI Apr 0.0% vs prior 0.0%. Energy +3.4% on gasoline +8.2%; Food +0.4%; Core intermediate goods prices +0.8%.
The BIG TELL: intermediate goods prices +0.9%; accelerating at the fastest rate in a year.
Over the last three months +1.1%; +1%; +0.9% and directly on pace for a 12% annual stagflation rate.
You think 12% is too high? The % change in crude goods Yoy is 11.1%, feel better?
Not good enough, % change Yoy in crude non food goods is only 9.8%, thats not double digits, feel better?
Now read em and weap, Yoy unadjusted % change in price: Fruit & melons +24.2%; Fresh & dry vegetables +26.9%; Eggs +17.8%; Milled Rice +18.4%; Dairy +12.6%; Flour +9.6%.
Thats just a Vegan diet....For Carnivores Only: Processed Chickens +35%; Beef & Veal +11.9%. Feed it: Intermediate foods & feeds +13.6%; Crude foods & feeds +26.7%
Grow it: mixed fertilizer +13.9%; phosphates +36.4%. Smelt it: steel mill products +17.1%; primary non ferrous metals +21.2%. Better yet PULP it: Woodpulp +11.4%; Wastepaper +51.3%.
But remember, life is getting better all the time, so just stay home, surf the net and don't drive or eat...
Why? because computers -22.2%. Housing trainwreckage: lumber -14.6%; building paper & board -14.3%.
Repeat the mantra brethren, my name is Benny and inflation is tame...
yes, expectations are tame due to a phenomenon that Joseph Goebbels tuned up last century...
and Karl Rove's Republican Neo-Cons perfected in this one... tell a lie enough times, and people start to believe it.
Business Inventories Mar (-0.1%) vs prior +0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: Seasonally adjusted but not considering price changes...
Sequentially, Sales +1.4%; Inventories (-0.1%). Interestingly enough... Yoy inventories: general merchandise +3.4%; clothing +9.6%..
Yoy ex auto inventories +3.6%, Yoy Total Sales +3.7%; Inventories +4.8%. So advertised inventories are still building.
Lets see how things are getting digested in the supply chain... Breaking it down by channel Yoy: Manufacturers in trouble; Sales (-0.5%); Inventories +5.7%.
Merchant Wholesalers treading water; Sales +8.4%; Inventories +8.1%. Retailers clearing it out; Sales +4.3%; Inventories +1.5%.
Oh my... the shit stained knickers can be found by digging into this dirty laundry bin with a YTD YOY analysis... thats why the press release doesn't provide one...
but The Nattering One likes his readers to see and smell the ugly truth...
Inventories: Manufacturing +5.7%; Wholesale +8.5%; Retail +2.5%
Sales: Manufacturing (-1.3%); Wholesale +6.9%; Retail +4%
Demonstrating that in Q107 vs Q106 inventory builds are outstipping sales, except in retail where they are struggling to push last years crap out the door.
This explains why manufacturing sales are NEGATIVE and delivery times are growing longer, fewer new orders are coming down from retail and wholesale.
As unemployment mounts, while retail spending slows further and housing prices plunge...
wholesale & retail sales will go negative along with manufacturing and the national GDP.
The question you have to ask yourself is: are there enough life boats and floatation devices on this sinking ship? Do you feel lucky?
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