Economic Reports 06/05/07
Summary: Yesterday's Factory orders revision headline shows a small increase with large sequential deceleration witnessing a backup in non durable goods as John Q pulls back.
Today's ISM services confirms the pullback as wholesale trade, food services and hospitality contract while inventories pile up.
Factory Orders Redux April +0.3% vs prior +4.1%
Inside the number: Durable goods inventories +0.5%, at an all time record high.
Sequentially... Non durable goods: new orders -0.2%; shipments -0.2%; inventories +0.5%.
More important YTD: all new orders -0.6%; ; ex defense new orders -0.8%; ex transportation new orders -1.1%; non durable new orders -1.9%.
The pig in the python... by stage of fabrication:
materials & supplies durable +0.7%, non durable +0.8%; work in process durable +0.8%, non durable -0.2%; finished goods durable -0.2%, non durable +0.5%.
ISM Services May 59.7 vs prior 56.0 Full Report
Inside the number: Good news... new orders up 57.4% vs 55.5%; employment up 54.9% vs 51.9%.
Bad news... prices paid up 66.4% vs 63.5%; inventory up to a record high 61% vs 52%.
Extremely weak growth in retail and construction. Overall Contraction in Hospitality, Food Services and Wholesale Trade.
New orders contraction in Transportation, Warehousing, Accomodation & Food Services.
Slower deliveries (sign of contraction) in Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; and Finance & Insurance.
Select comments:
"Fuel prices remain outrageously high." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services).
"Inverse yield curve squeezing margins." (Finance & Insurance).
"Increasing pressure on cost reduction as energy costs remain high." (Accommodation & Food Services).
"Housing market is still depressed." (Construction)
The 12 industries reporting growth in May — listed in order — are: Mining; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Other Services*; Retail Trade; and Construction.
The two industries reporting decreased activity from April to May are: Accommodation & Food Services and Wholesale Trade.
Today's ISM services confirms the pullback as wholesale trade, food services and hospitality contract while inventories pile up.
Factory Orders Redux April +0.3% vs prior +4.1%
Inside the number: Durable goods inventories +0.5%, at an all time record high.
Sequentially... Non durable goods: new orders -0.2%; shipments -0.2%; inventories +0.5%.
More important YTD: all new orders -0.6%; ; ex defense new orders -0.8%; ex transportation new orders -1.1%; non durable new orders -1.9%.
The pig in the python... by stage of fabrication:
materials & supplies durable +0.7%, non durable +0.8%; work in process durable +0.8%, non durable -0.2%; finished goods durable -0.2%, non durable +0.5%.
ISM Services May 59.7 vs prior 56.0 Full Report
Inside the number: Good news... new orders up 57.4% vs 55.5%; employment up 54.9% vs 51.9%.
Bad news... prices paid up 66.4% vs 63.5%; inventory up to a record high 61% vs 52%.
Extremely weak growth in retail and construction. Overall Contraction in Hospitality, Food Services and Wholesale Trade.
New orders contraction in Transportation, Warehousing, Accomodation & Food Services.
Slower deliveries (sign of contraction) in Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; and Finance & Insurance.
Select comments:
"Fuel prices remain outrageously high." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services).
"Inverse yield curve squeezing margins." (Finance & Insurance).
"Increasing pressure on cost reduction as energy costs remain high." (Accommodation & Food Services).
"Housing market is still depressed." (Construction)
The 12 industries reporting growth in May — listed in order — are: Mining; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Other Services*; Retail Trade; and Construction.
The two industries reporting decreased activity from April to May are: Accommodation & Food Services and Wholesale Trade.
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